The Official 2020 Census Thread

[Frodo]

https://twitter.com/finnygo/status/1149287854633357314
Prepare for fireworks.

I know “constitutional crisis” gets thrown around a lot, but...

I fully expect the Supreme Court to uphold any executive order. 

[Frodo]

The Sunbelt (unsurprisingly) is being especially undercounted this year:

2020 Census 'emergency' threatens to leave out communities of color and rural Americans

At first, this outreach effort, postponed from the spring due to COVID-19, gave volunteers until Oct. 31 to contact these groups. But on Aug. 3, that deadline was moved up to Sept. 30 because, according to the census, that was the only way numbers could be tabulated in time to meet "our statutory deadline of Dec. 31, 2020, as required by law and directed by the Secretary of Commerce."

A review of the Census Bureau's Hard to Count map highlights areas of concern, including the many neighborhoods with heavily Latino and Black populations that have yet to respond.

Texas stands out, with a majority of its counties showing fewer than 50% of residents self-reporting their census information. Edwards County, hard by the Rio Grande River, is at just 14.8%. Other heavily undercounted areas include almost all of New Mexico; California's Central Valley; the southern half of Georgia; and the largely Native American Four Corners region where Colorado, Utah, New Mexico and Arizona meet.

"In 2010, there were undercounts of people of color and Native Americans on reservations, and it seems that now with even more households to visit in less time, the undercount risks being much worse," says Steven Romalewski, who is keeping a close eye on the map as part of the City University of New York’s Center for Urban Research at the Graduate Center. "It's worrisome."

[Frodo]

Bureau update on their processing work:

"Importantly, we’ve not uncovered anything so far that would suggest that the 2020 Census will not be fit for its constitutional and statutory purposes."

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/blogs/random-samplings/2020/11/update-2020-census-data-processing-and-quality.html

I wouldn't trust anything coming out of the Census Bureau:

Census takers say they were told to enter false information

Just how truly reliable are their numbers?  And why should anyone trust them now?  

Honestly, given how hopelessly compromised this year's census has proven to be, we need a redo next year. 

[Frodo]

From Brookings:

The 2010s saw the lowest population growth in U.S. history, new census estimates show

[Frodo]

Judge Denies Feds’ Attempt to Dismiss Census Lawsuit

A federal judge excoriated the Trump administration in a ruling, saying officials in the U.S. Census Bureau violated the court’s injunction by shutting down data collection early and that the agency’s plan to count the population in the United States during a pandemic is likely to result in a less accurate count.

U.S. District Judge Lucy Koh denied the Trump administration’s attempt to dismiss the case, saying the coalition of cities, counties and civil rights groups were justified to be concerned that the government’s plan to alter the census process to accommodate the pandemic would affect federal funding and political representation in certain communities.

“The administrative record shows that the Replan will likely lead to an undercount that results in loss of crucial federal funds for programs that affect [Plaintiffs’] daily life,” Koh wrote in a 57-page ruling handed down late Tuesday night.

[Frodo]

Census Bureau to miss deadline, jeopardizing Trump plan

The Census Bureau plans to announce it will miss a year-end deadline for handing in numbers used for divvying up congressional seats, a census official said. That delay could undermine President Donald Trump’s efforts to exclude people in the country illegally from the count if the figures aren’t turned in before President-elect Joe Biden takes office.

A census official who was not authorized to speak publicly on the matter confirmed the delay to the Associated Press on Wednesday.

[Frodo]

Trump administration misses census data deadline, eyes March handover to Congress

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Trump's creature at the Census Bureau is out:

Census Bureau director stepping down after outcry over immigrant count
Pressure mounted on Steven Dillingham after an inspector general memo alleged he pressured employees to rush a report on the number of unauthorized immigrants.

[Frodo]

I am pleased to report that we have not found any anomalies that are impossible to fix. We have fixed or are fixing every anomaly that our systems and processes have identified so far, and we will continue to look for and fix any that arise as we continue processing the data.

In fact, we completed the second phase of our data processing (validation of the Decennial Response File 2) on Feb. 24. In this phase, we removed duplicate responses that we received and addressed any anomalies which needed to be corrected. We have begun work on the third phase (Census Unedited File processing), and we will continue to look for and fix any anomalies that arise as we continue processing the data.

Finding these anomalies illustrates that our quality checks are working — ensuring we can count everyone once, only once, and in the right place.

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/blogs/random-samplings/2021/03/finding_anomalies.html

In case anyone wants to know what the third phase involves:

3)  Census Unedited File (CUF) – Building on the DRF2, the third phase of census processing produces the Census Unedited File (CUF). This process determines the final population count for each address in the census.

-The CUF processing determines the status for every address as occupied, vacant, non-existent, or unresolved (meaning we did not get a sufficient response or resolution of the case for that address).

-For unresolved addresses, we use processing software that applies statistical methods to fill in the missing housing unit status and, if necessary, the missing household population.

-The same rigorous level of review continues for the CUF as in every other phase to ensure correct software execution and data accuracy. The CUF provides the basis for the apportionment counts we produce.

Out of curiosity, I looked up how many phases are included in data processing, and there are four of them.  With two done so far, and the third having just started, that leaves the fourth and last:

4)  Data for Apportionment – The fourth phase is final review, preparation and delivery of the apportionment data to the president. These state population counts determine how many seats each state gets in the U.S. House of Representatives. Watch this space for an upcoming blog that will provide additional information on that important and ceremonial release.