The Official 2020 Census Thread

[Tender Branson]

Daily response map update (data submitted until yesterday, April 1, Census Day):

41.3% (+2.9)

As expected, a HUGE spike in response for the census reference date, April 1.

TOP:

49.9% Minnesota (MN now clearly ahead of WI (48.4%).

BOTTOM:

25.5% Alaska

[Tender Branson]

Michigan continues to have a great Census response.

Yesterday was so good that MI almost overtook WI for 2nd.

In 2010, the final rate for MI was 1% above the US rate as a whole.

Currently, MI households respond 7% above the US average ...

[Tender Branson]

I think the 60% should be hit fairly soon, probably by next Sunday (April 12).

The question will then be what happens after that:

Will response taper off ?

But even if the daily updates only show an average 0.4% increase for 45 days until end-May (down from an average 2% now), it would still result in a 80% response.

If everything plays out right, even 85% is possible (households have more time to respond this year than in previous decades as well).

In 1990, 2000 and 2010 - 76% was the maximum achieved.

[cinyc]

2020 response rates by tract minus 2010 final mail response rate tract map gif for the past 3 days:

https://twitter.com/cinyc9/status/1245813750210408452

Red tracts are further behind their final 2010 mail response rates than blue or green ones. Yellow tracts will be ahead of their final 2010 mail response rates.

In NYC, the upper-income tracts near Central Park are way behind. Did they go to their 2nd homes and forget to fill out the Census?

[OneJ]

It's really surprising to see Mississippi to even be on par with the national average. I wonder what could be driving up the state's responses up. Maybe using the internet more is giving the state a bigger boost relative to other states?

[Tender Branson]

Hey cinyc, thx for the maps.

Could you do a state or county map too ?

BTW: what did you use as the „final“ 2010 rates ? The 66.5% recalculated rate for 2020, or the original 74% ?

[Tender Branson]

Cinyc, on your Twitter Page you re-tweeted a misleading tweet of a NYT woman on response rates and daily comparisons between 2010 and 2020.

In her chart, you get the impression that 2020 rates so far are trailing behind the 2010 rates at comparable times, but that’s wrong.

2020 response is actually a bit better so far, because there were different times when invitation letters were sent out to households.

Besides, daily 2010 response was still based on the final 74% back then, not the re-calculated 66.5% rate that is used for the 2020 numbers as a comparison.

[cinyc]

Hey cinyc, thx for the maps.

Could you do a state or county map too ?

BTW: what did you use as the „final“ 2010 rates ? The 66.5% recalculated rate for 2020, or the original 74% ?

I'd have to set up a new map to do county/state. Maybe in the next few days, if I have time.

I had to do some voodoo math to get 2010 response rates for the 2020 tracts. The 2010 tract map doesn't match 2020 in a lot of places. New tracts have been created since then. So I took the final mail total and the final total, multiplied by area within a 2020 tract for each 2010 geo, and divided. At least I THINK it was the original 74% - but I'll have to check my spreadsheets tomorrow. It's running ahead of the hardtocount maps in some tracts, so it's probably the 74%.

[cinyc]

Cinyc, on your Twitter Page you re-tweeted a misleading tweet of a NYT woman on response rates and daily comparisons between 2010 and 2020.

In her chart, you get the impression that 2020 rates so far are trailing behind the 2010 rates at comparable times, but that’s wrong.

2020 response is actually a bit better so far, because there were different times when invitation letters were sent out to households.

Besides, daily 2010 response was still based on the final 74% back then, not the re-calculated 66.5% rate that is used for the 2020 numbers as a comparison.

I can't really un-RT something I RTed. The damage is already done.

CUNY (i.e. the folks who do the hard-to-compare map) told me that they are putting out an article on how non-national this-time-in-2010 comparisons aren't accurate because of different methodology and other stuff. I'll RT that when they put it up.

The main focus with my maps are really to test which areas are lagging due to coronavirus or demographic change, not to show actual return rate. I'm particularly focusing on high-income areas in NYC and tracts adjacent to college campuses to see if there's any effect on return rate.

[Tender Branson]

Cinyc, on your Twitter Page you re-tweeted a misleading tweet of a NYT woman on response rates and daily comparisons between 2010 and 2020.

In her chart, you get the impression that 2020 rates so far are trailing behind the 2010 rates at comparable times, but that’s wrong.

2020 response is actually a bit better so far, because there were different times when invitation letters were sent out to households.

Besides, daily 2010 response was still based on the final 74% back then, not the re-calculated 66.5% rate that is used for the 2020 numbers as a comparison.

I can't really un-RT something I RTed. The damage is already done.

CUNY (i.e. the folks who do the hard-to-compare map) told me that they are putting out an article on how non-national this-time-in-2010 comparisons aren't accurate because of different methodology and other stuff. I'll RT that when they put it up.

The main focus with my maps are really to test which areas are lagging due to coronavirus or demographic change, not to show actual return rate. I'm particularly focusing on high-income areas in NYC and tracts adjacent to college campuses to see if there's any effect on return rate.

Yeah, the different methodology is making comparisons tough.

But I would say that based on the current speed and trend of returns, anything above the re-calculated 66.5% rate from 2010 by the end of April would be great and a success.

Especially because households can theoretically respond through May as well this time and a couple more percent will come in for sure.

Theoretically, non-response households could even submit until mid-August this time - because the Census Bureau has delayed visiting households until then as part of their NRFU.

This will add another few points and might hit 75-80% (or more). A new record. But we only know in August.

[Tender Branson]

Daily response rate update:

42.8% (+1.5)

Yesterday’s returns were lame ...

[cinyc]

It took a while, but I finally tracked down Census' official 2010 Final Self-Response rate data for 2020 tract, as opposed to my self-computed figure, which I think was the total mail-in rate after Census contact. Here's the revised tract gifs for the USA and NYC:

https://twitter.com/cinyc9/status/1246294190289543168

The Upper East Side rich tract problem still exists, albeit a little less stark.

Tender - I'll try to download the state/county data tomorrow to make additional maps.

[Tender Branson]

Tender - I'll try to download the state/county data tomorrow to make additional maps.

Good. Thanks.

[Tender Branson]

A couple more points:

With Census Reference Day April 1st now over and the response rate at 42.8%, things are getting more difficult for the Census Bureau by the day.

They cannot include the line "You HAVE to respond by April 1." any longer in their reminder letters.

Which means returns will slow down a lot in the coming weeks. On the other hand, Coronavirus is keeping people at home and this might work better than in previous decades.

Besides, the Census Bureau will shift more resources into repeat mailings, TV ads, radio ads and online ads over the coming months. It is their only choice, because households cannot be visited.

Also, the current 42.8% return rate among self-responding households (95.5% of all households) amounts to 40.8% of all households in the US.

So, we are only halfway through for a very decent final rate. Considering the Corona situation, I would only rate an 80%+ response as a good outcome before Census takers hit the road in the fall.

[Tender Branson]

Another chart:



There are actually more than 150 million housing units in the US, as determined by the address listing operation last year.

Which means more than 60 million housing units have already returned their forms.

[Tender Branson]

Daily response update:

43.9% (+1.1%)

[cinyc]

Here's the County gif requested by Tender Branson*:

https://twitter.com/cinyc9/status/1246666202627399685

*with a bonus Tweet of the Alaska tract closeup.

And the 4/4 data update (which I think is just technically through midnight 4/3):

https://twitter.com/cinyc9/status/1246518623302234117

[Tender Branson]

The CB now has a ranking page for census response too, which allows you to show rankings by filtered population size.

For exampe, among counties with 100k+ population, Washington County (WI) leads with 62% ahead of Carver County (MN) (also 62%).

Among cities with 100k+ population, Sterling Heights (MI) is the best so far with 65%, followed by Centennial (CO) at 64%, Arvada (CO) 62%, Naperville (IL) 60% and Meridian (ID) at 59%.

(Westwood, IA, actually already has a 83% response, but that place only has 111 people.)

Among counties over 1 million, Oakland (MI) and Hennepin (MN) are at the top with 58% each.

Among cities with over 1 million, San Jose (CA) and San Diego (CA) are ahead with 51% and 48%.

If you select "township" too, then Eden (IN) has the highest above 4.000 inhabitants with 77% response already.

[Tender Branson]

Among midsized US cities (filtered to between 5k and 50k people), the ranking is led by:

75% Huntington Woods (MI)
71% Dardenne Prairie (MO)
70% Grand Rapids (WI)

[jimrtex]

The CB now has a ranking page for census response too, which allows you to show rankings by filtered population size.

For exampe, among counties with 100k+ population, Washington County (WI) leads with 62% ahead of Carver County (MN) (also 62%).

Among cities with 100k+ population, Sterling Heights (MI) is the best so far with 65%, followed by Centennial (CO) at 64%, Arvada (CO) 62%, Naperville (IL) 60% and Meridian (ID) at 59%.

Washington is the most remote of the WOW counties around Milwaukee. Carver is the most remote of the 7 counties in the traditional Minneapolis-St Paul grouping (and outside the earlier 5 county grouping). A large share of the count is in the peninsula south of the wealthiest Hennepin suburbs.

Suburbs of Detroit, Denver, Denver, Chicago, and Boise.

Naperville is a fair distance from Chicago, almost as far as the satellites of Waukegan, Aurora, and Joliet. These three at one time had an independent industrial base, while Naperville had a lot of farm land, now converted to housing and offices.

[Tender Branson]

Daily update:

44.5% (+0.6)

Wow, yesterday’s returns were BAD.

If the daily responses are now deteriorating at such a speed, then the record-high response of 74%+ probably won’t be reached.

[cinyc]

Daily update:

44.5% (+0.6)

Wow, yesterday’s returns were BAD.

If the daily responses are now deteriorating at such a speed, then the record-high response of 74%+ probably won’t be reached.

I've made my 2020 vs 2010 response rate differential maps interactive:

https://cinycmaps.com/index.php/2-uncategorized/52-2020-vs-2010-census-response-rate-mutlimap

Click on Menu to change the thing mapped. Default map = Today's Tract 2020 Response Rate vs 2010 Self-Response Rate differential map. The differential county maps are included in the multimap, too, as are maps of the daily and 2010 historic tract and county response rates.

[Tender Branson]

Daily update:

44.5% (+0.6)

Wow, yesterday’s returns were BAD.

If the daily responses are now deteriorating at such a speed, then the record-high response of 74%+ probably won’t be reached.

I've made my 2020 vs 2010 response rate differential maps interactive:

https://cinycmaps.com/index.php/2-uncategorized/52-2020-vs-2010-census-response-rate-mutlimap

Click on Menu to change the thing mapped. Default map = Today's Tract 2020 Response Rate vs 2010 Self-Response Rate differential map. The differential county maps are included in the multimap, too, as are maps of the daily and 2010 historic tract and county response rates.

Thanks 🙏

So you are using the re-calculated 66.5% national rate for 2010 ? And based on it all related state, county and tract data from this link ? https://2020census.gov/en/response-rates.html

If yes, then there are already some counties in SD and AL for example that have surpassed their 2010 rates.

Nationally, only 2/3 of the 2010 rates are in so far. 1/3 missing.

But the Census Bureau will mail out paper questionnaires this week to households that have not responded yet - so theoretically there should be another rate boost starting next week.

[cinyc]

Daily update:

44.5% (+0.6)

Wow, yesterday’s returns were BAD.

If the daily responses are now deteriorating at such a speed, then the record-high response of 74%+ probably won’t be reached.

I've made my 2020 vs 2010 response rate differential maps interactive:

https://cinycmaps.com/index.php/2-uncategorized/52-2020-vs-2010-census-response-rate-mutlimap

Click on Menu to change the thing mapped. Default map = Today's Tract 2020 Response Rate vs 2010 Self-Response Rate differential map. The differential county maps are included in the multimap, too, as are maps of the daily and 2010 historic tract and county response rates.

Thanks 🙏

So you are using the re-calculated 66.5% national rate for 2010 ? And based on it all related state, county and tract data from this link ? https://2020census.gov/en/response-rates.html

If yes, then there are already some counties in SD and AL for example that have surpassed their 2010 rates.

Nationally, only 2/3 of the 2010 rates are in so far. 1/3 missing.

But the Census Bureau will mail out paper questionnaires this week to households that have not responded yet - so theoretically there should be another rate boost starting next week.

I got the 2010 data from Census' api. So, in theory, it's the same data as Census has on their website. They had to recalculate rates for tracts, so those might not add up to 66.5%. This is because 2020 tracts have different shapes from the 2010 tracts. I'm not sure if they recalculated the 2010 Final Self-Response Rate for counties - probably not as most counties haven't changed, but who knows?

Yes, if you look at the April 5 map, Bullock County, AL and Kinsgbury County, SD are ahead of their 2010 rates. That's why they're a shade of yellow on the interactive.

I just added CD maps to the interactives. Incorporated places and County Subs (in the states that have data) might be next, along with a simple margin map of the nationwide vs. the 2020 response rate on a particular date. Do you have the nationwide response rates for the past 6 days?

[Tender Branson]

Daily update:

44.5% (+0.6)

Wow, yesterday’s returns were BAD.

If the daily responses are now deteriorating at such a speed, then the record-high response of 74%+ probably won’t be reached.

I've made my 2020 vs 2010 response rate differential maps interactive:

https://cinycmaps.com/index.php/2-uncategorized/52-2020-vs-2010-census-response-rate-mutlimap

Click on Menu to change the thing mapped. Default map = Today's Tract 2020 Response Rate vs 2010 Self-Response Rate differential map. The differential county maps are included in the multimap, too, as are maps of the daily and 2010 historic tract and county response rates.

Thanks 🙏

So you are using the re-calculated 66.5% national rate for 2010 ? And based on it all related state, county and tract data from this link ? https://2020census.gov/en/response-rates.html

If yes, then there are already some counties in SD and AL for example that have surpassed their 2010 rates.

Nationally, only 2/3 of the 2010 rates are in so far. 1/3 missing.

But the Census Bureau will mail out paper questionnaires this week to households that have not responded yet - so theoretically there should be another rate boost starting next week.

I got the 2010 data from Census' api. They had to recalculate rates for tracts, so it might not add up to 66.5%. This is because 2020 tracts have different shapes from the 2010 tracts. I'm not sure if they recalculated the 2010 Final Self-Response Rate for counties - probably not as most counties haven't changed, but who knows?

Yes, if you look at the April 5 map, Bullock County, AL and Kinsgbury County, SD are ahead of their 2010 rates. That's why they're a shade of yellow on the interactive.

I just added CD maps to the interactives. Incorporated places and County Subs (in the states that have data) might be next, along with a simple margin map of the nationwide vs. the 2020 response rate on a particular date. Do you have the nationwide response rates for the past 6 days?

You can go to the link I posted and on the right you can select each date to get the national numbers.