The Official 2020 Census Thread

[UncleSam]

The EO is obviously just a means of getting one more crack at a SCOTUS case. It comes down to Roberts honestly - if Roberts was actually on the fence or was ok with a version of the question then this ploy will work, if he isn’t then it will go absolutely no where. I would bet on the latter.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Sources say that Trump is expected to back down on the census fight-

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-expected-end-fight-add-citizenship-question-census/story?id=64262805&utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app

[Gass3268]

Sources say that Trump is expected to back down on the census fight-

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-expected-end-fight-add-citizenship-question-census/story?id=64262805&utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app

Gonna use statistical methods to come up with the citizenship data, which a Democratic President could refuse to release to the states if one were elected in 2020.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Sources say that Trump is expected to back down on the census fight-

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-expected-end-fight-add-citizenship-question-census/story?id=64262805&utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app

Didn't see that coming.

[ProudModerate2]

Sources say that Trump is expected to back down on the census fight-

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-expected-end-fight-add-citizenship-question-census/story?id=64262805&utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app

What a bunch of ridiculous BS.
This administration continues to embarrass itself, for the Clown Show that it is.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I hope this is finally over...for real this time.

I will say though, it's nice that Barr finally did something useful in his position. He clarified what the f*** Trump was talking about. When the President spoke before him with his usual venom-filled nonsense, I was honestly confused by whether he was throwing in the towel or not. He said he wasn't backing down, but then apparently did. I was more perplexed than usual by one of tirades, which is what it was. It wasn't coherent or direct enough to be a statement.

So thank you Attorney General Barr for making it clear that, for once, there is a constraint on Trump's ambition that is being accepted. Now, please resign in disgrace for everything else you have done!

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

I hope this is finally over...for real this time.

I will say though, it's nice that Barr finally did something useful in his position. He clarified what the f*** Trump was talking about. When the President spoke before him with his usual venom-filled nonsense, I was honestly confused by whether he was throwing in the towel or not. He said he wasn't backing down, but then apparently did. I was more perplexed than usual by one of tirades, which is what it was. It wasn't coherent or direct enough to be a statement.

So thank you Attorney General Barr for making it clear that, for once, there is a constraint on Trump's ambition that is being accepted. Now, please resign in disgrace for everything else you have done!

This seems it could become a troubling precedent. Like the ancient Knights Templar or some priest-caste of antiquity, the (mal)administration will bring out their Brazen Head (he's even the right color!), the Head will spew some nonsense, and then the gibberish will be "interpreted" and the officiating priest of the Head will tell everyone what the nonsense really meant.

If Mr. Trump needs his Attorney General to act as his interpreter, and follow his remarks immediately with "what he really said was", then he is unfit to be President in one more way.

[Tender Branson]

Trump ends fight to include citizenship question on census and unveils new plan

President Trump officially dropped his controversial bid to add a citizenship question to the 2020 Census on Thursday. Instead, he announced at a Rose Garden ceremony that he was issuing an executive order that instructs federal agencies to report data to the Commerce Department in order to better tabulate the number of U.S. citizens.

“Today I’m here to say we are not backing down on our effort to determine the citizenship status of the United States population,” Trump told his invited guests, many of whom attended a forum on social media immediately beforehand. “It is essential that we have a clear breakdown of the number of citizens and noncitizens that make up the U.S. population — imperative. Knowing this information is vital to formulating sound public policy, whether the issue is health care, education, civil rights or immigration.”

Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts wrote in June that the Trump administration’s stated reason for including the citizenship question in the census was “contrived,” temporarily blocking it from being included. Acknowledging that whatever new rationale his administration put forth to justify the addition of the citizenship question would face lengthy court fights, Trump detailed his plan B.

“Therefore, we are pursuing a new option to ensure a complete and timely count of the noncitizen population,” Trump said. “Today I will be issuing an executive order to put this very plan into effect immediately. I’m hereby ordering every department and agency in the federal government to provide the Department of Commerce with all requested records regarding the number of citizens and noncitizens in our country.”

Trump said the collected data would be used “to gain a full, complete and accurate count of the noncitizen populations, including databases maintained by the Department of Homeland Security and the Social Security Administration.”

https://news.yahoo.com/trump-ends-fight-to-include-citizenship-question-on-census-and-unveils-new-plan-232435216.html

[Tender Branson]

Question:

How does the Census Bureau make sure that 20 Mio. or so Americans are not left uncounted, in the absence of a CPR (population registry) like we have here ?

Obviously, 75% of US households will respond either online or by mail after they get their forms and after repeat mails to participate.

But what about the other 25% ?

That’s 80 million people.

Many of them will be visited by census takers, but what if they are not at home ? Or do not want to be visited ?

Are statisticians then estimating the missing people by assuming someone is living in this house ? Are they asking neighbors ? What about counting the homeless ?

Isn’t it possible that not only 10 Mio. illegals are not counted but also the very poor, the government-hostile folks and the drug addicted ?

So, basically 20-30 million people will be missing next year.

The US population will probably be around 350 million in reality ...

[Tender Branson]

Leaving behind the ridiculous citizenship question, the Census Bureau seems to be generally on track for the operation next year, says a new GAO (U.S. Government Accountability Office) report:

Census Hiring, Office Needs Appear on Track, GAO Says

The Census Bureau “generally appears to be positioned” to meet its needs for hiring, office space and training related to next year’s census, the GAO has reported.

It said that as of last month, the agency had signed leases for 247 of 248 planned new temporary offices and that while it had experienced early delays when regions were trying to find office space and acquire leases, “Bureau officials said that the deadlines for the later phases of renovations will allow them to make up time lost.” The first wave of offices already is open while the second is set to open in the fall.

The report said that the Bureau has exceeded its schedule for hiring temporary employees, although it faces “challenges in areas such as completing background checks and hiring during low unemployment, especially for partnership specialist positions.”

Also, its training plan—which involves more remote learning than in prior censuses—generally follows leading practices but does not have goals and performance measures, GAO said, adding that without them the agency “will not be able to accurately assess the cost and benefits of its new training approach.”

https://www.fedweek.com/federal-managers-daily-report/census-hiring-office-needs-appear-on-track-gao-says

[jimrtex]

Reuters/Ipsos confirms that Americans support the citizenship question by a huge margin:

"Do you approve or disapprove of the Census asking about people's citizenship status ?"

67% approve
23% disapprove

"During the next Census, you may be asked about your citizenship status. What do you think is the primary reason this information is being collected ?"

30% This is a standard recordkeeping and reporting procedure
21% Improve counts of U.S. residents in every community
26% Help enforce US immigration laws and detain illegal immigrants
  8% Undercount immigrant communities

Link

A quarter of Americans are incredibly stupid, because confidentiality assures that no collected citizenship data is forwarded to ICE etc.

This is essentially a leading question.

If you favor enforcing US immigration laws and detaining illegal immigrants, you could reason that it is a good question that we should be asking.

If you disfavor enforcing US immigration laws and detaining illegal immigrants, you could reason that it is a bad question that they are asking.

In both cases they are projecting motive.

[Tender Branson]

You might be visited by Census workers in the next weeks, because the Address Canvassing Operation starts:

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-kits/2018/2020-adcan.html

The Address Canvassing Operation serves two purposes:

Deliver a complete and accurate address list and spatial database for enumeration.
Determine the type and address characteristics for each living quarter.

This operation implements methods to improve and refine the U.S. Census Bureau’s address list in advance of the 2020 Census. The Census Bureau needs the address and physical location of each living quarter in the United States and Puerto Rico to conduct and tabulate the census.

An accurate list ensures that residents will be invited to participate in the census and that the census counts residents in the correct location.

Examples (Lorton, Fairfax County, Virginia):

A satellite file from the 2010 Census address operation:



A satellite file of the same area taken recently for the 2020 address operaion:

[Tender Branson]

Study: Most states are prepping for 2020 census, not Florida.

Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) has made it clear that he doesn’t have any desire to devote state resources to capture an accurate count in Florida for the 2020 U.S. Census. Now, a new report reveals that the Sunshine State is in the minority of states taking such a hands-off approach.

Florida is one of only 13 states that hasn’t taken any action towards creating a “complete count committee,” according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a Washington D.C.-based think tank.

The census takes place every decade. It’s designed to provide an accurate and official count of all Americans to include fair representation in Congress and federal funding. Congressional seats are apportioned based on population, and the report says that the federal government distributed more than $900 billion to the states through 325 census-guide programs and projects, including Medicaid, highway planning and construction, child care assistance and foster care in 2016.

The Florida Phoenix reported last month that getting a less than complete and accurate count could be costly for Florida when it comes to the state’s congressional representation. The state currently has 27 representatives in the House of Representatives. Early projections indicate that Florida would gain two more seats after the 2020 census. But other studies say that a less than robust count could mean a net gain of only one additional seat.

https://www.floridaphoenix.com/blog/study-most-states-are-prepping-for-2020-census-not-florida

[Progressive Pessimist]

Study: Most states are prepping for 2020 census, not Florida.

Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) has made it clear that he doesn’t have any desire to devote state resources to capture an accurate count in Florida for the 2020 U.S. Census. Now, a new report reveals that the Sunshine State is in the minority of states taking such a hands-off approach.

Florida is one of only 13 states that hasn’t taken any action towards creating a “complete count committee,” according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a Washington D.C.-based think tank.

The census takes place every decade. It’s designed to provide an accurate and official count of all Americans to include fair representation in Congress and federal funding. Congressional seats are apportioned based on population, and the report says that the federal government distributed more than $900 billion to the states through 325 census-guide programs and projects, including Medicaid, highway planning and construction, child care assistance and foster care in 2016.

The Florida Phoenix reported last month that getting a less than complete and accurate count could be costly for Florida when it comes to the state’s congressional representation. The state currently has 27 representatives in the House of Representatives. Early projections indicate that Florida would gain two more seats after the 2020 census. But other studies say that a less than robust count could mean a net gain of only one additional seat.

https://www.floridaphoenix.com/blog/study-most-states-are-prepping-for-2020-census-not-florida

OF COURSE! I really hope they lose representation...they won't though.

[Virginiá]

https://twitter.com/PoliticsWolf/status/1163933485230198785

aka undocumented immigrants are clearly scum who should not be counted in society except to get money from the federal government, to which a gerrymandered legislature will then spend.

[Tender Branson]

Trump should not attack the Census, considering his constant bragging about JOBS, JOBS, JOBS:

The Census Bureau is hiring 500.000 workers starting this month.

That will temporarily bring down the unemployment rate to ~3% in the spring, if the economy also keeps doing well.

Levels not seen since the 1950s.

https://abc7chicago.com/careers/us-census-to-hire-500000-temporary-workers-for-2020-census-/5608137/

I guess nobody told him yet ... as he’s not smart enough to read the important news himself.

[Tender Branson]

Census Bureau Asks for State Data Including Citizenship Information

The U.S. Census Bureau is asking states for drivers’ license records that typically include citizenship data and has made a new request for information on recipients of government assistance, alarming some civil rights advocates.

The two approaches, documented by The Associated Press, come amid President Donald Trump’s efforts to make citizenship a key aspect of federal information-gathering in the run-up to the 2020 Census, despite this year’s U.S. Supreme Court ruling that a specific citizenship question can’t be included in the 2020 Census questionnaire.

Civil rights advocates worry that the wider net being cast by the Trump administration for such information could chill Latino participation in the population count, which will determine how many congressional seats each state gets and guide the allocation of hundreds of billions of dollars of federal funding. The results of the 2020 Census also will be used to redraw state and local electoral maps.

Experts caution that inaccuracies in state motor vehicle records also make them a poor choice for tracking citizenship, if that is the bureau’s goal.

After the Supreme Court ruling, President Donald Trump signed an executive order in July requiring the Commerce Department, which oversees the Census Bureau, to collect records on citizenship from federal agencies and increase efforts “to obtain State administrative records concerning citizenship.”

The American Association of Motor Vehicle Administrators told The AP that most, if not all, states recently received requests for information including citizenship status, race, birthdates and addresses. The association has advised members to consult their privacy officers, and “each state is making their own determination how to respond,” spokeswoman Claire Jeffrey said in an email.

https://apnews.com/0b9e5ca716514d0eab593109b8eda71e

[Tender Branson]

With just slightly more than 1 month until the 2020 census operation starts in Alaska, 5 states have still not created a complete count committee:

5 States Resisting Creation of Public Awareness Campaigns to Promote the Upcoming 2020 Census

With billions in federal aid and seats in Congress at stake, some states are dragging their feet in carrying out one of the Census Bureau’s chief recommendations for making sure everyone is counted during the 2020 census.

Five states — Florida, Louisiana, Nebraska, South Dakota and Texas — have not set up “complete count committees” that would create public awareness campaigns to encourage people to fill out the questionnaires.

(...)

State governments are appropriating nearly $350 million to reach people and get them to respond to the census. The amounts range from California’s record $187 million to Montana’s $100,000, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. New York City is committing $40 million.

States led by Democrats have spent more per capita. Of the 11 states spending at least $1 per resident, all but North Dakota have Democratic governors, according to an Associated Press analysis.

California, which stands to lose a seat in Congress, is spending $4.73 per person, using the money to target certain ethnic communities, provide educational materials to schools and identify community leaders who can personally encourage participation in the most populous state.

Spending on outreach offers a great return on investment, said Ditas Katague, director of the California Complete Count-Census 2020 Office.

“You have to look at how many programs will suffer and how much money we will lose,” Katague said.

In 2000, when California spent $24 million, 76 percent of residents returned the questionnaires by mail, outstripping the national average. In 2010, in the aftermath of the recession and budget cuts, California spent only $2 million, and the mail response rate dropped to 73 percent, below the national average.

https://time.com/5738022/census-awareness-panels/

[Corbyn is (no longer) the leader of the Labour Party]

With just slightly more than 1 month until the 2020 census operation starts in Alaska, 5 states have still not created a complete count committee:

5 States Resisting Creation of Public Awareness Campaigns to Promote the Upcoming 2020 Census

With billions in federal aid and seats in Congress at stake, some states are dragging their feet in carrying out one of the Census Bureau’s chief recommendations for making sure everyone is counted during the 2020 census.

Five states — Florida, Louisiana, Nebraska, South Dakota and Texas — have not set up “complete count committees” that would create public awareness campaigns to encourage people to fill out the questionnaires.

(...)

State governments are appropriating nearly $350 million to reach people and get them to respond to the census. The amounts range from California’s record $187 million to Montana’s $100,000, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. New York City is committing $40 million.

States led by Democrats have spent more per capita. Of the 11 states spending at least $1 per resident, all but North Dakota have Democratic governors, according to an Associated Press analysis.

California, which stands to lose a seat in Congress, is spending $4.73 per person, using the money to target certain ethnic communities, provide educational materials to schools and identify community leaders who can personally encourage participation in the most populous state.

Spending on outreach offers a great return on investment, said Ditas Katague, director of the California Complete Count-Census 2020 Office.

“You have to look at how many programs will suffer and how much money we will lose,” Katague said.

In 2000, when California spent $24 million, 76 percent of residents returned the questionnaires by mail, outstripping the national average. In 2010, in the aftermath of the recession and budget cuts, California spent only $2 million, and the mail response rate dropped to 73 percent, below the national average.

https://time.com/5738022/census-awareness-panels/

I don't understand, do said states want less representation and federal money?

[Tender Branson]

With just slightly more than 1 month until the 2020 census operation starts in Alaska, 5 states have still not created a complete count committee:

5 States Resisting Creation of Public Awareness Campaigns to Promote the Upcoming 2020 Census

With billions in federal aid and seats in Congress at stake, some states are dragging their feet in carrying out one of the Census Bureau’s chief recommendations for making sure everyone is counted during the 2020 census.

Five states — Florida, Louisiana, Nebraska, South Dakota and Texas — have not set up “complete count committees” that would create public awareness campaigns to encourage people to fill out the questionnaires.

(...)

State governments are appropriating nearly $350 million to reach people and get them to respond to the census. The amounts range from California’s record $187 million to Montana’s $100,000, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. New York City is committing $40 million.

States led by Democrats have spent more per capita. Of the 11 states spending at least $1 per resident, all but North Dakota have Democratic governors, according to an Associated Press analysis.

California, which stands to lose a seat in Congress, is spending $4.73 per person, using the money to target certain ethnic communities, provide educational materials to schools and identify community leaders who can personally encourage participation in the most populous state.

Spending on outreach offers a great return on investment, said Ditas Katague, director of the California Complete Count-Census 2020 Office.

“You have to look at how many programs will suffer and how much money we will lose,” Katague said.

In 2000, when California spent $24 million, 76 percent of residents returned the questionnaires by mail, outstripping the national average. In 2010, in the aftermath of the recession and budget cuts, California spent only $2 million, and the mail response rate dropped to 73 percent, below the national average.

https://time.com/5738022/census-awareness-panels/

I don't understand, do said states want less representation and federal money?

There are varying motives:

TX and FL (Republicans) worry that the massive influx of migrants in the past decade will lead to more additional congressional seats being created in urban areas, to their disadvantage.

That’s why those complete count committee bills died there in the GOP-held legislatures.

In NE and SD, the Governors argue that local initiatives are already doing what such a state committee would do, so there’s no need.

Not sure about LA.

[Virginiá]

It's not hard to see why Republicans would reject federal money even if you remove elections from the equation. Many Republican-controlled states have rejected the Medicaid expansion and even some that have it now had to get it passed via initiative or by newly elected Democrats. It doesn't really make sense when your people's tax dollars are already going to the federal government and by extension, the Medicaid expansion, in which case you might as well just take the expansion and pay the very small balance of what the feds don't pay in exchange for many more people getting coverage, but, yet, they don't. Because muh small gubmint.

But that is nothing compared to the electoral incentives that an inaccurate census provides. If there is one lesson the past decade should teach us about the GOP, it's that nothing is above power and winning elections. Why try to get an accurate count if that's just going to result in the Republican Party losing influence at the state/federal level? Who cares about federal money and seats in Congress if they don't control those seats? In a more just and fair world, that kind of statement should just be an insult from some bitter crank, but in this world, there is no way to look at the totality of the GOP's actions over the past 10 years, and really the past generation if you ask me, and not come to the conclusion that winning elections is the #1 goal and nothing else matters more than that. Absolutely nothing. And officials are free to disagree (the few of them that even exist) but their opinions will be marginalized, although it's fine because they too want power and won't say anything anyway.

[Tender Branson]

Another video out:

+ one for the Mexicans in the US etc:

[Progressive Pessimist]

Ig

With just slightly more than 1 month until the 2020 census operation starts in Alaska, 5 states have still not created a complete count committee:

5 States Resisting Creation of Public Awareness Campaigns to Promote the Upcoming 2020 Census

With billions in federal aid and seats in Congress at stake, some states are dragging their feet in carrying out one of the Census Bureau’s chief recommendations for making sure everyone is counted during the 2020 census.

Five states — Florida, Louisiana, Nebraska, South Dakota and Texas — have not set up “complete count committees” that would create public awareness campaigns to encourage people to fill out the questionnaires.

(...)

State governments are appropriating nearly $350 million to reach people and get them to respond to the census. The amounts range from California’s record $187 million to Montana’s $100,000, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. New York City is committing $40 million.

States led by Democrats have spent more per capita. Of the 11 states spending at least $1 per resident, all but North Dakota have Democratic governors, according to an Associated Press analysis.

California, which stands to lose a seat in Congress, is spending $4.73 per person, using the money to target certain ethnic communities, provide educational materials to schools and identify community leaders who can personally encourage participation in the most populous state.

Spending on outreach offers a great return on investment, said Ditas Katague, director of the California Complete Count-Census 2020 Office.

“You have to look at how many programs will suffer and how much money we will lose,” Katague said.

In 2000, when California spent $24 million, 76 percent of residents returned the questionnaires by mail, outstripping the national average. In 2010, in the aftermath of the recession and budget cuts, California spent only $2 million, and the mail response rate dropped to 73 percent, below the national average.

https://time.com/5738022/census-awareness-panels/

I don't understand, do said states want less representation and federal money?

There are varying motives:

TX and FL (Republicans) worry that the massive influx of migrants in the past decade will lead to more additional congressional seats being created in urban areas, to their disadvantage.

That’s why those complete count committee bills died there in the GOP-held legislatures.

In NE and SD, the Governors argue that local initiatives are already doing what such a state committee would do, so there’s no need.

Not sure about LA.

Of course Florida would be one of them...I can't wait for my dad to move there...yes, that's apparently happening.

[Tender Branson]

The 2020 Census operation has started with awareness ads in remote Alaska (the count there starts in a few weeks):

The first ads for the 2020 census launched this week in a remote part of Alaska with plans for an advertising campaign for the rest of the country slated for next month, the U.S. Census Bureau said Thursday.

The advertising launched this week is aimed at residents of 220 small native Alaskan villages where census takers will begin the once-a-decade headcount next month.

The count begins in January in these remote Alaskan villages because the ground is frozen then, allowing easier access than at other times of the year. The kickoff is the third week in January in Toksook Bay, a village on the Bering Sea west of Bethel.

The rest of the country will begin filling out the 2020 census questionnaire in March.

This is the first year the Census Bureau has aired ads targeting the residents of the remote Alaskan villages. The campaign includes full-page print ads, commercial signage, posters, radio ads and digital content.

Nationwide, the Census Bureau plans to spend $500 million on a communications campaign to get people to answer the questionnaire. For the first time, the agency is encouraging a majority of participants to fill it out online, though it can also be filled out by telephone or by mailing a paper form.

The 2020 census will determine how many congressional seats each state gets as well as direct the distribution of $1.5 trillion in federal spending.

https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2019/12/26/us/ap-us-2020-census-ads.html

[Tender Branson]

In hindsight, this is interesting:

https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2011/01/12/state-population-estimates-and-census-2010-counts-did-they-match/

CA, TX and FL - states with big growth and large Hispanic immigrant shares - actually had counts close to the estimates before the Census.

The biggest outlier was AZ, where far fewer people were counted than it was estimated.