The Official 2020 Census Thread
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Author Topic: The Official 2020 Census Thread  (Read 114946 times)
jimrtex
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« Reply #1350 on: March 12, 2021, 02:31:23 PM »

I’m confused when the constitution matters (OH) and when it is secondary to legislation (US)
The failure of the Census Bureau, Department of Commerce, and the Biden administration to comply with federal statute is likely to cause Ohio to violate its constitution.

It is reasonable to seek judicial intervention.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1351 on: March 12, 2021, 11:02:13 PM »

I’m confused when the constitution matters (OH) and when it is secondary to legislation (US)
The failure of the Census Bureau, Department of Commerce, and the Biden administration to comply with federal statute is likely to cause Ohio to violate its constitution.

It is reasonable to seek judicial intervention.

No, don’t blame the Biden administration.

It was the Trump administration that repeatedly sabotaged and delayed the census taking last year.
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« Reply #1352 on: March 15, 2021, 01:19:59 PM »

2020 Census results to be released between April 16-30:

https://www.cleveland.com/open/2021/03/in-court-filings-census-bureau-officials-say-ohio-lawsuit-seeking-on-time-data-asks-the-impossible.html
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jimrtex
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« Reply #1353 on: March 15, 2021, 08:04:57 PM »

Ohio points out that they are asking that redistricting data be released within three months of the apportionment numbers, which is the schedule that Congress set in statute.

Under statute, the apportionment numbers were required to be released by December 31, 2020, and the PL 94-171 data by 3 months later March 31, 2021.

If Raimondo can get the apportionment numbers out by April 16-30, why can't she get the redistricting data by July 16-30?

Raimondo actually argued that there is no federal statute requiring use of Census data for congressional redistricting, so it does not matter that the Census Bureau ran late.
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« Reply #1354 on: March 16, 2021, 01:00:04 PM »

The Census Bureau is fast-tracking re-districting data for states to ca. 1.5 months before their deadline, by giving them the data early - but not in a user-friendly format:

Quote
MARCH 15, 2021 — In declarations recently filed in the case of Ohio v. Raimondo, the U.S. Census Bureau made clear that we can provide a legacy format summary redistricting data file to all states by mid-to-late August 2021. Because we recognize that most states lack the capacity or resources to tabulate the data from these summary files on their own, we reaffirm our commitment to providing all states tabulated data in our user-friendly system by Sept. 30, 2021.

On Feb. 12, 2021, the Census Bureau announced that it will deliver the Public Law 94.171 redistricting data to all states by Sept. 30, 2021. Processing of 2020 Census data is proceeding as expected, and we expect to meet our previously announced deadline for the redistricting data release.

In recognition of the difficulties this timeline creates for states with redistricting and election deadlines prior to Sept. 30, we have reviewed our timeline to identify any opportunities to shorten the processing schedule. Our review confirms that all steps of data processing and formatting will be complete by Sept. 30. However, the final steps in our process include creating “tabulations” (data tables) from the data we have collected for each state and creating a user-friendly system for data access. We have determined that states should be given the opportunity to use an outside vendor to process legacy format summary redistricting data files if states do not have the capacity to tabulate the data on their own. The declarations filed March 12 note that given the difficulty of using the data in this format, any state using legacy format summary redistricting data files would have to accept responsibility for how they process these files; whether correctly or incorrectly.

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2021/statement-legacy-format-redistricting.html
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jimrtex
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« Reply #1355 on: March 16, 2021, 08:06:33 PM »

The Census Bureau is fast-tracking re-districting data for states to ca. 1.5 months before their deadline, by giving them the data early - but not in a user-friendly format:

Quote
MARCH 15, 2021 — In declarations recently filed in the case of Ohio v. Raimondo, the U.S. Census Bureau made clear that we can provide a legacy format summary redistricting data file to all states by mid-to-late August 2021. Because we recognize that most states lack the capacity or resources to tabulate the data from these summary files on their own, we reaffirm our commitment to providing all states tabulated data in our user-friendly system by Sept. 30, 2021.

On Feb. 12, 2021, the Census Bureau announced that it will deliver the Public Law 94.171 redistricting data to all states by Sept. 30, 2021. Processing of 2020 Census data is proceeding as expected, and we expect to meet our previously announced deadline for the redistricting data release.

In recognition of the difficulties this timeline creates for states with redistricting and election deadlines prior to Sept. 30, we have reviewed our timeline to identify any opportunities to shorten the processing schedule. Our review confirms that all steps of data processing and formatting will be complete by Sept. 30. However, the final steps in our process include creating “tabulations” (data tables) from the data we have collected for each state and creating a user-friendly system for data access. We have determined that states should be given the opportunity to use an outside vendor to process legacy format summary redistricting data files if states do not have the capacity to tabulate the data on their own. The declarations filed March 12 note that given the difficulty of using the data in this format, any state using legacy format summary redistricting data files would have to accept responsibility for how they process these files; whether correctly or incorrectly.

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2021/statement-legacy-format-redistricting.html
Is the legacy format the same as was used in 2010?
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« Reply #1356 on: March 18, 2021, 02:46:49 PM »

The Census Bureau has finished the Census Unedited File (CUF) now and is applying the final ingredients (Imputation, Unduplication etc.) to release the population figures (planned for April 16-30).

https://www2.census.gov/about/partners/cac/sac/meetings/2021-03/presentation-post-enumeration-data-processing-status.pdf

https://www2.census.gov/about/partners/cac/sac/meetings/2021-03/presentation-2020-census-operational-review.pdf

https://www2.census.gov/about/partners/cac/sac/meetings/2021-03/presentation-post-enumeration-survey-update.pdf
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« Reply #1357 on: March 18, 2021, 03:00:36 PM »

The Census Bureau is fast-tracking re-districting data for states to ca. 1.5 months before their deadline, by giving them the data early - but not in a user-friendly format:

Quote
MARCH 15, 2021 — In declarations recently filed in the case of Ohio v. Raimondo, the U.S. Census Bureau made clear that we can provide a legacy format summary redistricting data file to all states by mid-to-late August 2021. Because we recognize that most states lack the capacity or resources to tabulate the data from these summary files on their own, we reaffirm our commitment to providing all states tabulated data in our user-friendly system by Sept. 30, 2021.

On Feb. 12, 2021, the Census Bureau announced that it will deliver the Public Law 94.171 redistricting data to all states by Sept. 30, 2021. Processing of 2020 Census data is proceeding as expected, and we expect to meet our previously announced deadline for the redistricting data release.

In recognition of the difficulties this timeline creates for states with redistricting and election deadlines prior to Sept. 30, we have reviewed our timeline to identify any opportunities to shorten the processing schedule. Our review confirms that all steps of data processing and formatting will be complete by Sept. 30. However, the final steps in our process include creating “tabulations” (data tables) from the data we have collected for each state and creating a user-friendly system for data access. We have determined that states should be given the opportunity to use an outside vendor to process legacy format summary redistricting data files if states do not have the capacity to tabulate the data on their own. The declarations filed March 12 note that given the difficulty of using the data in this format, any state using legacy format summary redistricting data files would have to accept responsibility for how they process these files; whether correctly or incorrectly.

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2021/statement-legacy-format-redistricting.html
Is the legacy format the same as was used in 2010?

YES:

Quote
2020 Census Data Products: Redistricting Legacy Format Summary File

We previously announced that we would deliver redistricting data to the states and the public by September 30, 2021.

This was based on our thorough examination of the revised post processing schedule, and our focus on fulfilling our constitutional obligation to deliver the state population counts for apportionment to the President.

This is problematic for some states, and as such, we have been and continue to explore alternatives to provide this data to the states as quickly as possible.

One alternative is delivery of a Legacy Format Summary File, which could be delivered by mid-to-late August 2021.

This data set:

• Provides a possible source for states with a pressing need to access redistricting data

• Fully reviewed and cleared for publication by mid-to-late August 2021

• Uses the same data as what will be released in more user-friendly format by September 30, 2021

• Product was always part of the 2020 Census product plan

• Format produced and provided to the states since at least Census 2000

• Prototype data in this format from the 2018 End-to-End Census Test is available for designing and testing redistricting
systems

• Requires additional handling to properly extract data from this format

https://www2.census.gov/about/partners/cac/sac/meetings/2021-03/presentation-2020-census-operational-review.pdf
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jimrtex
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« Reply #1358 on: March 19, 2021, 04:15:00 PM »

The results of the PES won't be released until late this year or perhaps next.

It is a sample where they interview people in person to see what sort of errors they made when they responded (e.g. forgetting people, adding people, etc.) or why they skipped questions or misunderstood them.

The slides suggest that some people can't remember where they were on April 1, 2020; or who lived there. They are also encountering different residents.

As part of their reply brief in the Ohio case, they provided a schedule of the steps. Completing the CUF means that they are running about one week ahead of schedule.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #1359 on: March 19, 2021, 04:21:00 PM »

The Census Bureau is fast-tracking re-districting data for states to ca. 1.5 months before their deadline, by giving them the data early - but not in a user-friendly format:
Is the legacy format the same as was used in 2010?

YES:
So they were responsive to the Ohio lawsuit.

The State of Ohio and Department of Commerce (Gina Raimondo) have agreed to let the judge decide on jurisdiction and standing without a hearing. If he decides that they do, there will be hearings on the redress.

I wonder what will happen to the Alabama lawsuit.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1360 on: March 22, 2021, 11:57:54 AM »

Census Bureau launches apportionment & population tool:

Link
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« Reply #1361 on: March 23, 2021, 04:03:18 PM »

Here is an article about so-called „differential privacy“:

https://www.ncsl.org/research/redistricting/differential-privacy-for-census-data-explained.aspx

Data for sub-state entities such as small towns or small counties get deliberately falsified by the Census Bureau because of privacy reasons.

For example if you have small census tract where only 50 people are enumerated and 1 of these people are black, you can draw conclusions out of the data and what other characteristics apply for this black person.

Therefore the CB will falsify the data for example to show that 2 or 3 black people are living there, not just one.

State counts will not be impacted or edited though.

This procedure is also applied here in Austria so that no conclusions can be drawn on individual people in small towns.

It’s also a reason why postal votes are not counted on the precinct level here because one could draw conclusions about voting behavior of an individual in very small precincts ...
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« Reply #1362 on: March 23, 2021, 10:47:16 PM »

Sen. Portman (R-OH) being a clueless dick:

Lawmakers frustrated over delay in Census redistricting data

Quote
Republican senators expressed frustration Tuesday that data used for redrawing congressional and legislative districts won't be available until August at the earliest, but the U.S. Census Bureau's acting director told them the schedule was driven by a goal of releasing complete and accurate numbers.

At a hearing of the Homeland Security & Governmental Affairs Committee, Republican lawmakers told acting Census Bureau director Ron Jarmin that the delay was upending their states' redistricting plans.

The statistical agency recently said the redistricting data would be ready in an older format by August and in a more user-friendly format by September, months after the redistricting deadlines for many states. By law, the redistricting data is due by March 31, but the bureau said it needed the extra time because of delays caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Under questioning, Jarmin said prioritizing some states like Ohio over other states in getting the redistricting data would actually cause a bigger delay. He also said hiring more staff wouldn't speed up the process since that would take staff experts away from processing the data so they could train the new hires.

"That sounds nonsensical to me," Portman responded.


https://mycbs4.com/news/connect-to-congress/lawmakers-frustrated-over-delay-in-census-redistricting-data

Portman has probably never worked a real supervising job like I do.

If you currently have your hands full with a big workload and additionally have to train newbies, you get distracted and your own work remains undone.

You will only get a reward out of it if those newbies are trained and can get the job done on their own.

That won’t help you right now, but in a few months to half a year only ... in case of the census data that would be too late.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #1363 on: March 24, 2021, 10:38:10 AM »

Here is an article about so-called „differential privacy“:

https://www.ncsl.org/research/redistricting/differential-privacy-for-census-data-explained.aspx

Data for sub-state entities such as small towns or small counties get deliberately falsified by the Census Bureau because of privacy reasons.

For example if you have small census tract where only 50 people are enumerated and 1 of these people are black, you can draw conclusions out of the data and what other characteristics apply for this black person.

Therefore the CB will falsify the data for example to show that 2 or 3 black people are living there, not just one.

State counts will not be impacted or edited though.

This procedure is also applied here in Austria so that no conclusions can be drawn on individual people in small towns.

It’s also a reason why postal votes are not counted on the precinct level here because one could draw conclusions about voting behavior of an individual in very small precincts ...

The Census Bureau presented 2010 Census data with the 2020 techniques applied to the states for analysis. Colorado found systematic biases such as shifting population to rural areas. Some legislative districts would have up to 3.5% variance in population.

Colorado Response

This process requires a top down process from the national level - which means all states have to be fully processed before it can be applied, which may delay state data.

This shifting of people and delay is the basis for Alabama's second lawsuit.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #1364 on: March 24, 2021, 11:02:26 AM »

Sen. Portman (R-OH) being a clueless dick:

Lawmakers frustrated over delay in Census redistricting data

Quote
Republican senators expressed frustration Tuesday that data used for redrawing congressional and legislative districts won't be available until August at the earliest, but the U.S. Census Bureau's acting director told them the schedule was driven by a goal of releasing complete and accurate numbers.

At a hearing of the Homeland Security & Governmental Affairs Committee, Republican lawmakers told acting Census Bureau director Ron Jarmin that the delay was upending their states' redistricting plans.

The statistical agency recently said the redistricting data would be ready in an older format by August and in a more user-friendly format by September, months after the redistricting deadlines for many states. By law, the redistricting data is due by March 31, but the bureau said it needed the extra time because of delays caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Under questioning, Jarmin said prioritizing some states like Ohio over other states in getting the redistricting data would actually cause a bigger delay. He also said hiring more staff wouldn't speed up the process since that would take staff experts away from processing the data so they could train the new hires.

"That sounds nonsensical to me," Portman responded.


https://mycbs4.com/news/connect-to-congress/lawmakers-frustrated-over-delay-in-census-redistricting-data

Portman has probably never worked a real supervising job like I do.

If you currently have your hands full with a big workload and additionally have to train newbies, you get distracted and your own work remains undone.

You will only get a reward out of it if those newbies are trained and can get the job done on their own.

That won’t help you right now, but in a few months to half a year only ... in case of the census data that would be too late.

This is a transcript of his questioning Portman questions Jarmin

That page also includes a video.

Portman was quite responsible.

He wondered whether their redistricting plans would be upheld given shifting populations by the Census Bureau.

Portman was director of OMB, which is likely a more responsible position than yours.
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« Reply #1365 on: March 24, 2021, 11:54:57 AM »

Sen. Portman (R-OH) being a clueless dick:

Lawmakers frustrated over delay in Census redistricting data

Quote
Republican senators expressed frustration Tuesday that data used for redrawing congressional and legislative districts won't be available until August at the earliest, but the U.S. Census Bureau's acting director told them the schedule was driven by a goal of releasing complete and accurate numbers.

At a hearing of the Homeland Security & Governmental Affairs Committee, Republican lawmakers told acting Census Bureau director Ron Jarmin that the delay was upending their states' redistricting plans.

The statistical agency recently said the redistricting data would be ready in an older format by August and in a more user-friendly format by September, months after the redistricting deadlines for many states. By law, the redistricting data is due by March 31, but the bureau said it needed the extra time because of delays caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Under questioning, Jarmin said prioritizing some states like Ohio over other states in getting the redistricting data would actually cause a bigger delay. He also said hiring more staff wouldn't speed up the process since that would take staff experts away from processing the data so they could train the new hires.

"That sounds nonsensical to me," Portman responded.


https://mycbs4.com/news/connect-to-congress/lawmakers-frustrated-over-delay-in-census-redistricting-data

Portman has probably never worked a real supervising job like I do.

If you currently have your hands full with a big workload and additionally have to train newbies, you get distracted and your own work remains undone.

You will only get a reward out of it if those newbies are trained and can get the job done on their own.

That won’t help you right now, but in a few months to half a year only ... in case of the census data that would be too late.

This is a transcript of his questioning Portman questions Jarmin

That page also includes a video.

Portman was quite responsible.

He wondered whether their redistricting plans would be upheld given shifting populations by the Census Bureau.

Portman was director of OMB, which is likely a more responsible position than yours.

That could be true, but he demands the CB and Jarmin to snip with their fingers and perform some magic.

That still won’t result in earlier data ...
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« Reply #1366 on: March 24, 2021, 11:23:21 PM »

OH lawsuit struck down by a federal court:

Federal judge dismisses Ohio lawsuit seeking quicker release of census counts

Quote
A federal judge has dismissed a lawsuit filed by Republican Attorney General Dave Yost seeking to force the U.S. Census Bureau to release new population counts sooner for Ohio’s redistricting process.

U.S. District Judge Thomas M. Rose ruled Wednesday that Yost lacked standing in the case, and the Southern District of Ohio court lacked jurisdiction over the issue raised in the attorney general’s injunction request.

The state, the judge wrote in his ruling, has other options for completing redistricting – the process of drawing Statehouse and congressional district lines – absent the availability of new census counts earlier in the year.

“Ohio has not established that it cannot accomplish its redistricting in the time that remains between the unavoidably delayed results of the 2020 Census and its 2022 elections,” Rose wrote.

https://eu.dispatch.com/story/news/politics/state/2021/03/24/federal-judge-dismisses-ohio-lawsuit-seeking-quicker-release-census-redistricting/6987148002/

The judge is right: OH should simply change its constitution and don’t whine around.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #1367 on: March 25, 2021, 10:25:18 AM »

OH lawsuit struck down by a federal court:

Federal judge dismisses Ohio lawsuit seeking quicker release of census counts

Quote
A federal judge has dismissed a lawsuit filed by Republican Attorney General Dave Yost seeking to force the U.S. Census Bureau to release new population counts sooner for Ohio’s redistricting process.

U.S. District Judge Thomas M. Rose ruled Wednesday that Yost lacked standing in the case, and the Southern District of Ohio court lacked jurisdiction over the issue raised in the attorney general’s injunction request.

The state, the judge wrote in his ruling, has other options for completing redistricting – the process of drawing Statehouse and congressional district lines – absent the availability of new census counts earlier in the year.

“Ohio has not established that it cannot accomplish its redistricting in the time that remains between the unavoidably delayed results of the 2020 Census and its 2022 elections,” Rose wrote.

https://eu.dispatch.com/story/news/politics/state/2021/03/24/federal-judge-dismisses-ohio-lawsuit-seeking-quicker-release-census-redistricting/6987148002/

The judge is right: OH should simply change its constitution and don’t whine around.
That is not what the judge ruled.
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« Reply #1368 on: March 30, 2021, 01:50:15 PM »

Will we be receiving data on Puerto Rico and the other U.S. territories on the same schedule as the rest of the U.S. states and District of Columbia?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1369 on: March 30, 2021, 02:46:50 PM »

Will we be receiving data on Puerto Rico and the other U.S. territories on the same schedule as the rest of the U.S. states and District of Columbia?

Maybe, but there’s no word on that ...
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« Reply #1370 on: April 01, 2021, 08:58:16 AM »

Will we be receiving data on Puerto Rico and the other U.S. territories on the same schedule as the rest of the U.S. states and District of Columbia?
Technically, DC can have more than three electors, so it will have its apportionment population determined if not used.

The statute that provide for censuses for the insular territories say that their censuses are in addition to the US Census, though taken at the same time. Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, Guam, and Northern Marianas, are specifically mentioned in this regard. American Samoa is not, but could be included at the Census Bureau's discretion.

13 U.S. Code § 191

It would appear that PL 94-171 only applies to the United States. Subsection (c) is PL 94-171.

13 U.S. Code § 141


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« Reply #1371 on: April 02, 2021, 10:29:33 AM »

The 2020 Census was probably the most accurate ever, by using for the first time comprehensive administrative data for addresses that didn’t respond on their own, such as IRS or Social Security data for these households:

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/blogs/random-samplings/2021/04/administrative_recor.html

This has not been used in previous censuses.
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« Reply #1372 on: April 02, 2021, 10:36:52 AM »

Will we be receiving data on Puerto Rico and the other U.S. territories on the same schedule as the rest of the U.S. states and District of Columbia?

I now have an answer to your question:

With the release of the first results (population, apportionment counts, quality data sets), we’ll get the 50 states + DC + PR.

Small islands will be later.

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/blogs/random-samplings/2021/03/introduction_to_qual.html

Table shell:

https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/newsroom/press-kits/2021/2020-data-quality-metrics-table-shell-and-definitions.xlsx
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« Reply #1373 on: April 07, 2021, 09:06:36 PM »

Raimondo statement on differential privacy:

https://www.startribune.com/commerce-secretary-raimondo-defends-census-privacy-method/600043285/
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« Reply #1374 on: April 21, 2021, 01:36:06 PM »

This has probably been asked and answered on this forum before somewhere, but there's a question I've had for a while: Did this whole differential privacy thing originate within the Census Bureau (okay, maybe not within, but concerned citizens just mentioned the issue with no legal threats involved and Census Bureau officials decided on their own to adopt it; I understand that development began before the 2010 census but wasn't ready then), OR was there a lawsuit or specific threat of a lawsuit on 14th Amendment grounds (right to privacy) that led to the Bureau taking their current course?
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