The Official 2020 Census Thread

[_.]

Data quality in the Census was very solid, according to a press release today:

DEC. 31, 2020 — The 2020 Census data collection contained numerous quality checks, including analyzing data about census takers’ work and reinterviewing cases where the data suggested a potential problem. Every completed case and every census taker’s work went through a battery of checks designed to spot unusual patterns of work, called analytic selection. If the analytical process indicated a census taker had zero cases selected for review, it was an indication that nothing was out of the ordinary about their work characteristics. The analytic selection techniques were sufficient for detecting unusual patterns of work, alleviating the need to check every census taker and tens of millions of results through reinterviews.

(...)

Preliminary metrics on census takers’ work reveal that far below 1% (i.e., 0.4%) of census takers may have falsified their work or performed work unsuccessfully to the extent that it needed to be reworked. According to preliminary metrics, about 13% of those completed rework cases for the census takers were found to be either a hard fail or a performance fail (meaning that the cases needed to be reworked). The other 87% of rework cases examined passed the reinterview. Therefore, enumerators who may have falsified data or performed poor quality work were very rare.

The Census Bureau is committed to data quality and completed almost 1.6 million reinterviews for this purpose during a national pandemic and severe weather challenges. The Census Bureau will continue to assess 2020 Census operations and their impact on data quality, and will publicly share the information.

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2020/2020-census-nonresponse-followup-reinterview.html

Exactly. This narrative that the 2020 census is gonna be inaccurate needs to end.

How are you supposed to change people's minds on that by using the Census's words directly? Nobody would trust that.

[Tender Branson]

It’s official !

The CB will (and cannot) release the 2020 Census results until January 20th.

Their earliest date would be Feb. 9th and they might even push back this date much further.

[Non Swing Voter]

It’s official !

The CB will (and cannot) release the 2020 Census results until January 20th.

Their earliest date would be Feb. 9th and they might even push back this date much further.

So Trump's plan to cheat in terms of congressional apportionment is no longer viable?

[Tender Branson]

It’s official !

The CB will (and cannot) release the 2020 Census results until January 20th.

Their earliest date would be Feb. 9th and they might even push back this date much further.

So Trump's plan to cheat in terms of congressional apportionment is no longer viable?

The Census Bureau could produce 2 sets of results for each state:

# one with all persons being counted
# another one with an unspecified amount of non-citizens removed (e.g. those in ICE detention and/or an estimate of all non-citizens based on the annual ACS)

Both sets would then be presented to Joe Biden & Gina Raimondo, who would decide which set to use for reapportionment.

If they choose the set with „all people enumerated“, someone could launch a lawsuit of course that the citizen-only population should be used - which could be settled by the Supreme Court.

[jimrtex]

It’s official !

The CB will (and cannot) release the 2020 Census results until January 20th.

Their earliest date would be Feb. 9th and they might even push back this date much further.

So Trump's plan to cheat in terms of congressional apportionment is no longer viable?

The Census Bureau could produce 2 sets of results for each state:

# one with all persons being counted
# another one with an unspecified amount of non-citizens removed (e.g. those in ICE detention and/or an estimate of all non-citizens based on the annual ACS)

Both sets would then be presented to Joe Biden & Gina Raimondo, who would decide which set to use for reapportionment.

If they choose the set with „all people enumerated“, someone could launch a lawsuit of course that the citizen-only population should be used - which could be settled by the Supreme Court.

Since the 1990 Census the the Census Bureau has presented two sets of numbers to the President. He has added them together and based the apportionment on the two numbers.

See Franklin v Massachusetts. Barbara Franklin was the Secretary of Commerce at the time who appealed a lower court decision. Massachusetts had sued to exclude military personnel and their dependents overseas from being counted for apportionment purposes (Massachusetts residents tend to be older and also less willing to serve in the military).

You as usual conflate illegal alien with non-citizen. You have done this so many times that I must presume dishonesty on your part.

Citizens of course have the right to reside in the United States, as do permanent resident aliens (their right of residence is conditioned on good behavior, rather than being unconditionally permanent).

Others aliens have a right of temporary presence. A visitor from Austria who is visiting Yosemite, the Grand Canyon, the Alamo, etc. is time limited. He (or she) does not have the right to establish domicile. He simply can not have Poughkeepsie or any other US city be his place of his usual residence, even though he was granted the privilege of being in the United States for a temporary basis. That he (she)  has avoided detection and deportation after overstaying their visa does not alter that fact.

If a Nosnarb Rednet was a known illegal alien who had been enumerated, then the Census Bureau would simply produce a count of persons who should not be counted for apportionment purposes.

[Frodo]

Trump administration misses census data deadline, eyes March handover to Congress

[_.]

Trump administration misses census data deadline, eyes March handover to Congress

I'm glad they're getting more time. I hope they make good use of it.

[Tender Branson]

Census Bureau halts Trump effort to gather citizenship data

The Census Bureau’s director put an indefinite stop to an effort to gather data on U.S. residents' citizenship status Wednesday, interrupting Trump's plans to use the information when drawing House districts, The Associated Press reports.

https://thehill.com/homenews/news/534162-census-bureau-halts-effort-to-gather-citizenship-data

https://apnews.com/article/census-2020-report-undocumented-4648266fc08d2680fb0545731dfbcdf3

[Tender Branson]

Census Bureau to Release 2020 Census Geographic Products

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that 2020 Census redistricting (P.L. 94-171) geographic support products will be available for all states, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico on a flow basis starting Jan. 19 and ending no later than Feb. 28.

These products consist of 2020 Census geography with the newly created 2020 Census blocks and updated block groups, census tracts, voting districts, and current boundaries for legal governments and school districts referenced to Jan. 1, 2020. Each state’s package will include shapefiles, maps, block assignment files and name lookup tables. These products are provided to support redistricting efforts by state and local governments.

In addition, a 2010 to 2020 block crosswalk will be provided with each state release to assist data users in comparing geographic data between censuses. Shapefiles, maps, block assignment files, name lookup tables, and the crosswalk will be provided in the same format as the 2010 Census version of these files.

The Census Bureau uses geography as the basis for conducting the census and tabulating census data. Census geography is a key component of the data products for decision-makers and data users. The Census Bureau collects, defines and maintains boundaries for over 29 different categories of geographic areas for statistical purposes, but this variety of geographic areas are often important to other federal, state and local agencies as well. Many agencies rely on the Census Bureau boundaries for incorporated places, minor civil divisions and counties since they are updated and maintained each year.

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2021/2020-census-geographic-products.html

[jimrtex]

Census Bureau to Release 2020 Census Geographic Products

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that 2020 Census redistricting (P.L. 94-171) geographic support products will be available for all states, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico on a flow basis starting Jan. 19 and ending no later than Feb. 28.

These products consist of 2020 Census geography with the newly created 2020 Census blocks and updated block groups, census tracts, voting districts, and current boundaries for legal governments and school districts referenced to Jan. 1, 2020. Each state’s package will include shapefiles, maps, block assignment files and name lookup tables. These products are provided to support redistricting efforts by state and local governments.

In addition, a 2010 to 2020 block crosswalk will be provided with each state release to assist data users in comparing geographic data between censuses. Shapefiles, maps, block assignment files, name lookup tables, and the crosswalk will be provided in the same format as the 2010 Census version of these files.

The Census Bureau uses geography as the basis for conducting the census and tabulating census data. Census geography is a key component of the data products for decision-makers and data users. The Census Bureau collects, defines and maintains boundaries for over 29 different categories of geographic areas for statistical purposes, but this variety of geographic areas are often important to other federal, state and local agencies as well. Many agencies rely on the Census Bureau boundaries for incorporated places, minor civil divisions and counties since they are updated and maintained each year.

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2021/2020-census-geographic-products.html

This had been anticipated to have been released in December.

[_.]

Census Bureau to Release 2020 Census Geographic Products

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that 2020 Census redistricting (P.L. 94-171) geographic support products will be available for all states, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico on a flow basis starting Jan. 19 and ending no later than Feb. 28.

These products consist of 2020 Census geography with the newly created 2020 Census blocks and updated block groups, census tracts, voting districts, and current boundaries for legal governments and school districts referenced to Jan. 1, 2020. Each state’s package will include shapefiles, maps, block assignment files and name lookup tables. These products are provided to support redistricting efforts by state and local governments.

In addition, a 2010 to 2020 block crosswalk will be provided with each state release to assist data users in comparing geographic data between censuses. Shapefiles, maps, block assignment files, name lookup tables, and the crosswalk will be provided in the same format as the 2010 Census version of these files.

The Census Bureau uses geography as the basis for conducting the census and tabulating census data. Census geography is a key component of the data products for decision-makers and data users. The Census Bureau collects, defines and maintains boundaries for over 29 different categories of geographic areas for statistical purposes, but this variety of geographic areas are often important to other federal, state and local agencies as well. Many agencies rely on the Census Bureau boundaries for incorporated places, minor civil divisions and counties since they are updated and maintained each year.

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2021/2020-census-geographic-products.html

What does "flow basis" mean? Does it mean we'll get one or two states every day between January 19 and February 28? If so, is there a schedule?

[jimrtex]

Census Bureau to Release 2020 Census Geographic Products

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that 2020 Census redistricting (P.L. 94-171) geographic support products will be available for all states, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico on a flow basis starting Jan. 19 and ending no later than Feb. 28.

These products consist of 2020 Census geography with the newly created 2020 Census blocks and updated block groups, census tracts, voting districts, and current boundaries for legal governments and school districts referenced to Jan. 1, 2020. Each state’s package will include shapefiles, maps, block assignment files and name lookup tables. These products are provided to support redistricting efforts by state and local governments.

In addition, a 2010 to 2020 block crosswalk will be provided with each state release to assist data users in comparing geographic data between censuses. Shapefiles, maps, block assignment files, name lookup tables, and the crosswalk will be provided in the same format as the 2010 Census version of these files.

The Census Bureau uses geography as the basis for conducting the census and tabulating census data. Census geography is a key component of the data products for decision-makers and data users. The Census Bureau collects, defines and maintains boundaries for over 29 different categories of geographic areas for statistical purposes, but this variety of geographic areas are often important to other federal, state and local agencies as well. Many agencies rely on the Census Bureau boundaries for incorporated places, minor civil divisions and counties since they are updated and maintained each year.

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2021/2020-census-geographic-products.html

What does "flow basis" mean? Does it mean we'll get one or two states every day between January 19 and February 28? If so, is there a schedule?

In 2011, when the actual data was released, there would be an announcement each Thursday of the states that would be released the following week.

Then on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday there would be announcements that the data had been sent to the legislature and governors of the states. The next day there would be a public release after the Census Bureau received confirmation that data had been received, and the Census Bureau would provide a data analysis.

The releases in 2011 were weighted towards Wednesday.

Monday: 11
Tuesday: 16
Wednesday: 25
Total: 52 (includes DC and PR).

So they were able to tell 6 days in advance when they would be able to ship the data, and about 1/2 the time, they were able to do so in 4 or 5 days.

In 2011 weekly releases were

Jan 31-Feb 2: 0,0,4
Feb 7-9: 0,1,4 = 5
Feb 14-16: 2,1,1 = 4
Feb 21-23: 0,4,4 = 8
Feb 28-Mar 2: 1,2,2 = 5
Mar 7-9: 2,2,3 = 7
Mar 14-16: 3,3,3 = 9
Mar 21-23: 3,3,4 = 10

My guess is that there are teams responsible for completing each state, with members moving to later states as they near completion.

In 2011 the four states that were released first were LA, MS, NJ, and VA, wre the four states with 2011 legislative elections (i.e. they needed new districts pronto). In 2021, only NJ and VA have legislative elections. LA and MS still use odd years, but they are every four years.

In 2011, states with early primaries in 2012, such as IL and TX had fairly early releases.

This release is a little bit different since it includes only the geography. States and the public will be able to draw maps, but won't have any population numbers.

It is possible that someone using the crosswalk files may be able to transfer the 2010 Census figures into the 2020 geography, so that someone could use DRA to practice drawing maps for when the actual data arrives.

p.s. The Census Bureau has scheduled a release announcement for every Friday through July. This was probably just a clerk who was told to add a periodic event to the calendar, and were told to do one for every Friday. "For how long?", "Oh, through April should be fine, let's be extra cautious and do July. We can cancel if they aren't needed."

If they follow the pattern of 2011, announcement will occur on January 22, with the first data shipping on January 25-27.

[_.]

Census Bureau to Release 2020 Census Geographic Products

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that 2020 Census redistricting (P.L. 94-171) geographic support products will be available for all states, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico on a flow basis starting Jan. 19 and ending no later than Feb. 28.

These products consist of 2020 Census geography with the newly created 2020 Census blocks and updated block groups, census tracts, voting districts, and current boundaries for legal governments and school districts referenced to Jan. 1, 2020. Each state’s package will include shapefiles, maps, block assignment files and name lookup tables. These products are provided to support redistricting efforts by state and local governments.

In addition, a 2010 to 2020 block crosswalk will be provided with each state release to assist data users in comparing geographic data between censuses. Shapefiles, maps, block assignment files, name lookup tables, and the crosswalk will be provided in the same format as the 2010 Census version of these files.

The Census Bureau uses geography as the basis for conducting the census and tabulating census data. Census geography is a key component of the data products for decision-makers and data users. The Census Bureau collects, defines and maintains boundaries for over 29 different categories of geographic areas for statistical purposes, but this variety of geographic areas are often important to other federal, state and local agencies as well. Many agencies rely on the Census Bureau boundaries for incorporated places, minor civil divisions and counties since they are updated and maintained each year.

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2021/2020-census-geographic-products.html

What does "flow basis" mean? Does it mean we'll get one or two states every day between January 19 and February 28? If so, is there a schedule?

In 2011, when the actual data was released, there would be an announcement each Thursday of the states that would be released the following week.

Then on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday there would be announcements that the data had been sent to the legislature and governors of the states. The next day there would be a public release after the Census Bureau received confirmation that data had been received, and the Census Bureau would provide a data analysis.

The releases in 2011 were weighted towards Wednesday.

Monday: 11
Tuesday: 16
Wednesday: 25
Total: 52 (includes DC and PR).

So they were able to tell 6 days in advance when they would be able to ship the data, and about 1/2 the time, they were able to do so in 4 or 5 days.

In 2011 weekly releases were

Jan 31-Feb 2: 0,0,4
Feb 7-9: 0,1,4 = 5
Feb 14-16: 2,1,1 = 4
Feb 21-23: 0,4,4 = 8
Feb 28-Mar 2: 1,2,2 = 5
Mar 7-9: 2,2,3 = 7
Mar 14-16: 3,3,3 = 9
Mar 21-23: 3,3,4 = 10

My guess is that there are teams responsible for completing each state, with members moving to later states as they near completion.

In 2011 the four states that were released first were LA, MS, NJ, and VA, wre the four states with 2011 legislative elections (i.e. they needed new districts pronto). In 2021, only NJ and VA have legislative elections. LA and MS still use odd years, but they are every four years.

In 2011, states with early primaries in 2012, such as IL and TX had fairly early releases.

This release is a little bit different since it includes only the geography. States and the public will be able to draw maps, but won't have any population numbers.

It is possible that someone using the crosswalk files may be able to transfer the 2010 Census figures into the 2020 geography, so that someone could use DRA to practice drawing maps for when the actual data arrives.

p.s. The Census Bureau has scheduled a release announcement for every Friday through July. This was probably just a clerk who was told to add a periodic event to the calendar, and were told to do one for every Friday. "For how long?", "Oh, through April should be fine, let's be extra cautious and do July. We can cancel if they aren't needed."

If they follow the pattern of 2011, announcement will occur on January 22, with the first data shipping on January 25-27.

Awesome! Thank you for such great info!

[Kevinstat]

Census Bureau to Release 2020 Census Geographic Products

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that 2020 Census redistricting (P.L. 94-171) geographic support products will be available for all states, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico on a flow basis starting Jan. 19 and ending no later than Feb. 28.

These products consist of 2020 Census geography with the newly created 2020 Census blocks and updated block groups, census tracts, voting districts, and current boundaries for legal governments and school districts referenced to Jan. 1, 2020. Each state’s package will include shapefiles, maps, block assignment files and name lookup tables. These products are provided to support redistricting efforts by state and local governments.

In addition, a 2010 to 2020 block crosswalk will be provided with each state release to assist data users in comparing geographic data between censuses. Shapefiles, maps, block assignment files, name lookup tables, and the crosswalk will be provided in the same format as the 2010 Census version of these files.

The Census Bureau uses geography as the basis for conducting the census and tabulating census data. Census geography is a key component of the data products for decision-makers and data users. The Census Bureau collects, defines and maintains boundaries for over 29 different categories of geographic areas for statistical purposes, but this variety of geographic areas are often important to other federal, state and local agencies as well. Many agencies rely on the Census Bureau boundaries for incorporated places, minor civil divisions and counties since they are updated and maintained each year.

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2021/2020-census-geographic-products.html

What does "flow basis" mean? Does it mean we'll get one or two states every day between January 19 and February 28? If so, is there a schedule?

In 2011, when the actual data was released, there would be an announcement each Thursday of the states that would be released the following week.

Then on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday there would be announcements that the data had been sent to the legislature and governors of the states. The next day there would be a public release after the Census Bureau received confirmation that data had been received, and the Census Bureau would provide a data analysis.

The releases in 2011 were weighted towards Wednesday.

Monday: 11
Tuesday: 16
Wednesday: 25
Total: 52 (includes DC and PR).

So they were able to tell 6 days in advance when they would be able to ship the data, and about 1/2 the time, they were able to do so in 4 or 5 days.

In 2011 weekly releases were

Jan 31-Feb 2: 0,0,4
Feb 7-9: 0,1,4 = 5
Feb 14-16: 2,1,1 = 4
Feb 21-23: 0,4,4 = 8
Feb 28-Mar 2: 1,2,2 = 5
Mar 7-9: 2,2,3 = 7
Mar 14-16: 3,3,3 = 9
Mar 21-23: 3,3,4 = 10

My guess is that there are teams responsible for completing each state, with members moving to later states as they near completion.

In 2011 the four states that were released first were LA, MS, NJ, and VA, wre the four states with 2011 legislative elections (i.e. they needed new districts pronto). In 2021, only NJ and VA have legislative elections. LA and MS still use odd years, but they are every four years.

In 2011, states with early primaries in 2012, such as IL and TX had fairly early releases.

This release is a little bit different since it includes only the geography. States and the public will be able to draw maps, but won't have any population numbers.

It is possible that someone using the crosswalk files may be able to transfer the 2010 Census figures into the 2020 geography, so that someone could use DRA to practice drawing maps for when the actual data arrives.

p.s. The Census Bureau has scheduled a release announcement for every Friday through July. This was probably just a clerk who was told to add a periodic event to the calendar, and were told to do one for every Friday. "For how long?", "Oh, through April should be fine, let's be extra cautious and do July. We can cancel if they aren't needed."

If they follow the pattern of 2011, announcement will occur on January 22, with the first data shipping on January 25-27.

Did they release the geography before the data in 2011?  I wasn't aware of it if they had, but they certainly might have.

I'm looking forward to making the "skeletons" of some spreadsheets.  Maine's such a lily white state that I've never felt the need to worry about anything but the total population numbers, and now that Trump's efforts to have a count of illegal immigrants (and perhaps a citizen v. non-citizen data as well) seems to have failed, I'll only have one population number I'll need for each geography.  (I'll also have a column showing how many fractional State House, State Senate or County Commissioner "quotas" a given municipality has and things like that.  But just having one population number does make things easier, even if the data isn't the most reliable.

[Kevinstat]

Census Bureau to Release 2020 Census Geographic Products

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that 2020 Census redistricting (P.L. 94-171) geographic support products will be available for all states, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico on a flow basis starting Jan. 19 and ending no later than Feb. 28.

These products consist of 2020 Census geography with the newly created 2020 Census blocks and updated block groups, census tracts, voting districts, and current boundaries for legal governments and school districts referenced to Jan. 1, 2020. Each state’s package will include shapefiles, maps, block assignment files and name lookup tables. These products are provided to support redistricting efforts by state and local governments.

In addition, a 2010 to 2020 block crosswalk will be provided with each state release to assist data users in comparing geographic data between censuses. Shapefiles, maps, block assignment files, name lookup tables, and the crosswalk will be provided in the same format as the 2010 Census version of these files.

The Census Bureau uses geography as the basis for conducting the census and tabulating census data. Census geography is a key component of the data products for decision-makers and data users. The Census Bureau collects, defines and maintains boundaries for over 29 different categories of geographic areas for statistical purposes, but this variety of geographic areas are often important to other federal, state and local agencies as well. Many agencies rely on the Census Bureau boundaries for incorporated places, minor civil divisions and counties since they are updated and maintained each year.

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2021/2020-census-geographic-products.html

This had been anticipated to have been released in December.

Not according to an e-mail I got from the Chief of the Census Bureau's Redistricting and Voting Rights Office on July 6, in reply to a long-winded e-mail of mine (that I won't include here) where I tried to play the card about how a delay would inconvenience states (this was before I was aware of the REPLAN, and judging from the reply it hadn't been unveiled yet) as justification for his office going outside its rules to make some "common sense" changes (like having different County Subdivisions (cities and towns) in Maine be different voting districts; they will be in 6 of Maine's counties, with some divided into wards, but not in the other 10):

Good Morning Kevin -
While I thank you for such a researched and information packed request, I am afraid I am going to disappoint you with my reply.  The Census Redistricting Data Program is established under Public Law 94-171.  This law requires the Census to establish a program which allows the states to identify the small area geography they need for conducting legislative redistricting and to provide census counts for those areas to the states in a timely manner.  The law also requires us to conduct this information exchange in a non-partisan manner, which we do by working with the official non-partisan liaisons in each state.  The law also requires the Census to establish the criteria for that exchange.  We have worked over the decades to make that criteria as flexible as possible within the operational constraints being born by the Census Bureau.  Those operational constraints for the 2020 Census included an end to the geographic inputs for the Redistricting Data Program of March 31, 2020.  This is a deadline that is necessary for the Census Bureau to process and upload the data prior to the final overall geographic review that must happen before creating the 2020 Census geographic output files.  The requested delay in the delivery of the census counts is necessary due to the delay in the collection of census responses which in turn effects the timeline for processing those responses and returning the data.  This does not have as great an effect on the geography and in fact, we expect the geography to be delivered in February and March of 2021, well ahead of the tabulation data.  The final overall geographic review of that data has already begun and is well under way. 

In reviewing your request, it does appear that all the pieces you will need for conducting your work will be present in the files we deliver. Unfortunately, as you note, they may not all be contained within the VTD layer so some additional processing will be required to pull this together.
I am sorry we can not accommodate your request.
Best Regards
James

***************************
James Whitehorne, Chief
Redistricting & Voting Rights Data Office/ADDC/HQ
U.S. Census Bureau

(emphasis added by me)

Of course, the REPLAN (or maybe whatever you call the plan before the COVID-19 plan) might have had something about the geographic data coming out earlier, but the geographic date at least seems to be ahead of the schedule that was anticipated in early July.

[jimrtex]

Census Bureau to Release 2020 Census Geographic Products

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that 2020 Census redistricting (P.L. 94-171) geographic support products will be available for all states, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico on a flow basis starting Jan. 19 and ending no later than Feb. 28.

These products consist of 2020 Census geography with the newly created 2020 Census blocks and updated block groups, census tracts, voting districts, and current boundaries for legal governments and school districts referenced to Jan. 1, 2020. Each state’s package will include shapefiles, maps, block assignment files and name lookup tables. These products are provided to support redistricting efforts by state and local governments.

In addition, a 2010 to 2020 block crosswalk will be provided with each state release to assist data users in comparing geographic data between censuses. Shapefiles, maps, block assignment files, name lookup tables, and the crosswalk will be provided in the same format as the 2010 Census version of these files.

The Census Bureau uses geography as the basis for conducting the census and tabulating census data. Census geography is a key component of the data products for decision-makers and data users. The Census Bureau collects, defines and maintains boundaries for over 29 different categories of geographic areas for statistical purposes, but this variety of geographic areas are often important to other federal, state and local agencies as well. Many agencies rely on the Census Bureau boundaries for incorporated places, minor civil divisions and counties since they are updated and maintained each year.

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2021/2020-census-geographic-products.html

This had been anticipated to have been released in December.

Not according to an e-mail I got from the Chief of the Census Bureau's Redistricting and Voting Rights Office on July 6, in reply to a long-winded e-mail of mine (that I won't include here) where I tried to play the card about how a delay would inconvenience states (this was before I was aware of the REPLAN, and judging from the reply it hadn't been unveiled yet) as justification for his office going outside its rules to make some "common sense" changes (like having different County Subdivisions (cities and towns) in Maine be different voting districts; they will be in 6 of Maine's counties, with some divided into wards, but not in the other 10):

Good Morning Kevin -
While I thank you for such a researched and information packed request, I am afraid I am going to disappoint you with my reply.  The Census Redistricting Data Program is established under Public Law 94-171.  This law requires the Census to establish a program which allows the states to identify the small area geography they need for conducting legislative redistricting and to provide census counts for those areas to the states in a timely manner.  The law also requires us to conduct this information exchange in a non-partisan manner, which we do by working with the official non-partisan liaisons in each state.  The law also requires the Census to establish the criteria for that exchange.  We have worked over the decades to make that criteria as flexible as possible within the operational constraints being born by the Census Bureau.  Those operational constraints for the 2020 Census included an end to the geographic inputs for the Redistricting Data Program of March 31, 2020.  This is a deadline that is necessary for the Census Bureau to process and upload the data prior to the final overall geographic review that must happen before creating the 2020 Census geographic output files.  The requested delay in the delivery of the census counts is necessary due to the delay in the collection of census responses which in turn effects the timeline for processing those responses and returning the data.  This does not have as great an effect on the geography and in fact, we expect the geography to be delivered in February and March of 2021, well ahead of the tabulation data.  The final overall geographic review of that data has already begun and is well under way.  

In reviewing your request, it does appear that all the pieces you will need for conducting your work will be present in the files we deliver. Unfortunately, as you note, they may not all be contained within the VTD layer so some additional processing will be required to pull this together.
I am sorry we can not accommodate your request.
Best Regards
James

***************************
James Whitehorne, Chief
Redistricting & Voting Rights Data Office/ADDC/HQ
U.S. Census Bureau

(emphasis added by me)

Of course, the REPLAN (or maybe whatever you call the plan before the COVID-19 plan) might have had something about the geographic data coming out earlier, but the geographic date at least seems to be ahead of the schedule that was anticipated in early July.

I'm not sure where I got the idea of December 2020.

There is the original plan released in December 2018, which said that it might be adjusted based on contingencies. When those contingencies did happen, the Census Bureau created the COVID-19 plan.

After it became apparent that Congress was not going to change the statutory deadlines, the Census Bureau came up with the Replan. Judge Koh ruled that the Replan was arbitrary and capricious and in violation of the Administrative Procedures Act. Eventually the SCOTUS ruled that complying with statutes is not arbitrary nor capricious.

When I had answered the question about "flow basis", I had only been able to find Census Bureau press releases beginning in 2011. So all the press releases were for the release of the PL 94-171 redistricting data to the states in February and March 2011. I had thought that the geographic data had been released earlier.

I have since found the 2010 news releases (never expect the Census Bureau to be able to keep track of the files on their own site), and there is no evidence of such a release. All that was announced in December 2010 were the apportionment numbers.

So now I think that the States had requested that they get the geography before the data. But I can't find any clear evidence in these:

http://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial/2020/program-management/planning-docs/2020-oper-plan4.pdf

https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial/2020/program-management/planning-docs/RDP_detailed_operational_plan_v2.0.pdf

There was a release of the prototype products based on the end-to-end census tests, but that was just so people can begin preparing their software and test it with real data.

But parsing through your letter from the Census Bureau:

They receive millions of census forms. They have to strip the identifying information (and archive the form for release in 2090), and then based on the address, place the data in the correct bucket (census block).

To be able to do this, they have to establish the buckets before they start sorting. That is why they were unwilling to accept changes after March 31, 2020 (and they politely told you that they work with each state's liaison). This is true, even though the changes you wanted were merely composites of groups of census blocks.

The COVID-19 plan was announced on April 13, and the Replan on August 3.

https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF11486

So the letter to you was sent while under the COVID-19 plan.

Since the letter says that the geographic data would be sent before the tabulation data, I infer that this was part of the plan all along - and the idea of a December 2020 release was not simply a figment of my imagination.

As of last July they anticipated a February-March release of geographic data. Since they are now announcing January-February, they are about one month ahead of what they anticipated last July.

To be useful for House redistricting in Maine, you need chunks of around 800 in population (10% of quota) so that adding one more chunk won't carry you from below 95% to past 105%. It is not at desirable that these chunks be exactly the same size.

For example, while you would like all of Gardiner to be in one House district, this might not be possible. You would want natural communities be available in Gardiner if it must be split (Gardiner picked out just because it was in Kennebec County).

[Kevinstat]

Thanks for your informative reply as always, Jimrtex.

In my letter to James Whitehorne and others in the Redistricting and Voting Rights Office, I had mentioned that the Voting Districts were not really needed for the redistricting itself (and Maine's liaison had mentioned that in her e-mail to me on February 21, 2020 when she told me that it didn't look like her office would be able to add county subdivisions as voting districts for those 10 counties - the Census Bureau seemed to limit the 2nd verification phase of the voting district project (VDP) to areas where the state had made change requests in one or more of the annotation and first verification phases, so even though that was before March 31 it was likely too late).  I mentioned that my main concern was that Dave's Redistricting used voting districts as the indivisible units (in their interface, at least; one can download any plan onto DRA) in what I'd say was the generally used format (I know Dave Bradlee also does a Block Group one, but most Atlas people use the Voting District one and Block Groups as you've noted in the past don't always coincide with municipalities either).  I said, "it can sometimes seem like people feel that if a line's not on Dave's Redistricting, it might as well not exist."

So I was basically asking the RDO to take extraordinary measures so I didn't have to look at people on this forum (and perhaps AAD as well) with not much knowledge of Maine doing redistricting plans on the App and treating it as the be all end all for amateur redistricting of the state.  So I can't be too upset with them for not obliging.  I had written Dave Bradlee last February after I heard from Maine's liaison about the absent (or effectively county-wide) "voting districts" in the 10 counties likely remaining as single-county voting districts and asked if he could do a hybrid instead, with county subdivisions used in those 10 counties.  But in that e-mail I threatened that I would make a post on this forum asking "Is Dave Bradlee mentally retarded?" if he claimed to have added Maine for post-2020 redistricting without my requested revisions, which he replied was very disrespectful of those with disabilities and that my approach "is the worst way of getting me to do something for you."  I then apologized, and he seemed to have forgiven me by last July when I forwarded him the bad news (from my perspective) from James Whitehorne and again apologized for having been a jerk in February, replying that the discussion was was interesting and giving me Kudos for pursuing it with the Census Bureau.  There's still no guarantee that he won't just use the voting districts as defined by the Census Bureau, though.

[Edited to change an "I" to a "he"]

[Brittain33]

Can anyone figure out which post broke the thread on the last page and report it?

[Tender Branson]

Can anyone figure out which post broke the thread on the last page and report it?

Jim’s Google link I guess is too big.

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Problem solved ... for now.