The Official 2020 Census Thread

[Mr.Phips]

The only problem for Dems between 2020-30 are the population growth dynamics in the states between 2010-20.

States won by Biden will likely lose 4-8 EV with the new numbers, Trump states will likely net the same amount.

But that has nothing to do with the Census process and quality itself.

for the 2024 election, Texas and Florida will gain some EVs which do lean republican for now. NC,Ga and AZ will gain seats as well but those are tossups. as for dems NV,OR,WA,CO will gain seats as they are growing as well.As a whole, it might be a slight loss or a wash for Biden

Biden states IL, CA, MN, RI, and PA will likely lose seats.

Trump states AL and WV likely lose seats.

Trump state MT likely gains a seat. 

Likely a gain of 4/5 votes for Trump states.

[Tender Branson]

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 02, 2020

Update on 2020 Census Data Processing

As the Director and senior career U.S. Census Bureau officials told members of Congress and Congressional staff last week, the estimated date that apportionment data will be complete remains in flux. These kinds of anomalies and issues are expected and are similar to the Census Bureau’s experience in prior decennial censuses. Internal tracking documents would not convey the uncertainty around projected dates and may fail to reflect the additional resources employed to correct data anomalies. The anomalies affect less than seven-tenths of one percent of records and are being resolved as expeditiously as possible.

What is certain is that the Census Bureau is working to thoroughly correct and address all issues and anomalies as a part of its mission to deliver accurate 2020 Census data products as close to the statutory deadline as possible. No shortcuts are being taken when it comes to patching the software to correct these anomalies, or others that may be discovered as data processing continues, and resources are being added to post-data collection processing to ensure timely and accurate data is delivered for the Census Bureau's important mission.

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2020/update-2020-data-processing.html

[jimrtex]

In the California district court case the judge is compelling discovery on the enumeration claim.

You will recall that the plaintiffs made claims that changing the procedures under the Re-plan would mean that
(1) It violated the Administrative Procedures Act;
(2) It violated the enumeration clause (presumably by using more imputation).

The court went with the APA claim because it avoided making a decision on a tenuous constitutional claim. The SCOTUS essentially laughed the APA claim out of court, by noting that it could not be considered arbitrary and capricious to attempt to comply with statutory deadlines.

So now the court has to try to keep control of the case.

In the 9th Circuit the court is asking for a stay of any further activity because the stay by the SCOTUS is in effect until the SCOTUS acts on a writ of certiorari, which will be months after an appeals decision.

[Tender Branson]

Today, the Census Bureau put out 3 sets of estimates for the US population on Census Day, April 1:



Those estimates are much higher than the mid-2019 population estimates projected forward.

These estimates were released to compare it to the actual Census count out later next year.

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2020/2020-demographic-analysis-estimates.html

[Tender Branson]

Today, the Census Bureau put out 3 sets of estimates for the US population on Census Day, April 1:



Those estimates are much higher than the mid-2019 population estimates projected forward.

These estimates were released to compare it to the actual Census count out later next year.

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2020/2020-demographic-analysis-estimates.html

The regular mid-2019 estimate, projected forward to April 1, 2020 would only be 329.5 million - so I don't know how they come up with these higher numbers ...

But actually, I was also speculating with an overcount of the population this year.

[ultraviolet]

Today, the Census Bureau put out 3 sets of estimates for the US population on Census Day, April 1:



Those estimates are much higher than the mid-2019 population estimates projected forward.

These estimates were released to compare it to the actual Census count out later next year.

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2020/2020-demographic-analysis-estimates.html

Hey those are actually some really nice numbers

[Tender Branson]

Today, the Census Bureau put out 3 sets of estimates for the US population on Census Day, April 1:



Those estimates are much higher than the mid-2019 population estimates projected forward.

These estimates were released to compare it to the actual Census count out later next year.

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2020/2020-demographic-analysis-estimates.html

Hey those are actually some really nice numbers

But those are only ranges of where the US population could have been on April 1.

This is not based on any data from the actual enumeration yet.

The actual count could be in this range, or 325 million, or 340 million too.

[muon2]

Today, the Census Bureau put out 3 sets of estimates for the US population on Census Day, April 1:



Those estimates are much higher than the mid-2019 population estimates projected forward.

These estimates were released to compare it to the actual Census count out later next year.

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2020/2020-demographic-analysis-estimates.html

Hey those are actually some really nice numbers

But those are only ranges of where the US population could have been on April 1.

This is not based on any data from the actual enumeration yet.

The actual count could be in this range, or 325 million, or 340 million too.

The demographic analysis released yesterday uses a different methodology than the annual estimates and they aren't necessarily expected to be the same. The estimates start with the most recent census then determine the change in population since that point on a yearly basis, with adjustments to prior years as each new estimate is produced. The demographic analysis starts from scratch and uses birth and death records, immigration data, and Medicare records to determine a total population. The intent is to compare the demographic analysis to the actual 2020 Census and look for possible systematic overcounts or undercounts.

[Tender Branson]

Supreme Court tosses challenge to Trump's immigrant census plan

The Supreme Court ruled 6-3 on Friday to dismiss a challenge to the Trump administration’s exclusion of undocumented immigrants from the U.S. census, the once-per-decade population count used to allocate House seats among the states.

The decision broke along ideological lines, with the court’s six conservative justices finding that the lawsuit brought by nearly two dozen states was premature. The court’s three more liberal members dissented.

If the courts take no further action on President Trump’s plan, the Friday ruling would effectively allow him to subtract undocumented residents from his mandatory January apportionment report to Congress, which could reduce House seats and federal funding among states with large undocumented populations.

https://thehill.com/regulation/530817-supreme-court-tosses-challenge-to-trumps-immigrant-census-plan

Basically meaningless at this point.

Even if Trump today directs the CB to produce numbers without non-citizens, there’s no time left for them to do so because they have no reliable sources/data and they need until February or something to produce the count (Trump is out of office then).

[jimrtex]

Today, the Census Bureau put out 3 sets of estimates for the US population on Census Day, April 1:



Those estimates are much higher than the mid-2019 population estimates projected forward.

These estimates were released to compare it to the actual Census count out later next year.

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2020/2020-demographic-analysis-estimates.html

Hey those are actually some really nice numbers

But those are only ranges of where the US population could have been on April 1.

This is not based on any data from the actual enumeration yet.

The actual count could be in this range, or 325 million, or 340 million too.

The demographic analysis released yesterday uses a different methodology than the annual estimates and they aren't necessarily expected to be the same. The estimates start with the most recent census then determine the change in population since that point on a yearly basis, with adjustments to prior years as each new estimate is produced. The demographic analysis starts from scratch and uses birth and death records, immigration data, and Medicare records to determine a total population. The intent is to compare the demographic analysis to the actual 2020 Census and look for possible systematic overcounts or undercounts.

In the past, the Census Bureau has produced low, medium, and high projections, based on guesstimates of birth rates, death rates, and migration rates. But these are different in that the range of estimates is based on estimates of the quality of their input data.

More recent birth data is fairly accurate, but going back some births were being missed. Before 1945, they are using Medicare records (these persons are over 75), but not everyone qualified for Medicare has applied.

And the worst component, as always is international migration. There simply is not very good data. 50% of the difference between the High and Low estimates or 2.5 million is due to the range of estimates in migration. 30% is due to the range of estimates is due to the Medicare data which is pre-boomers, and 20% is due to range of estimates for births.

I'm not countering anything you wrote, it was just convenient to respond.

In 2010, the census was actually a tiny bit higher than the demographic analysis. The methodology of the demographic analysis is evolving, so the 2020 estimates are not directly comparable to 2010 estimates.

[Tender Branson]

Here are the full mid-2020 population estimates by state, released today:

329.5 million (+1.2 million vs. last year, +0.4%)

https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/tables/2010-2020/state/totals/nst-est2020.xlsx

Based on those estimates, the April 1 Census count should come in at around 329.2 million.

So, the Census result should be somewhere between 329 million (annual estimates based on the 2010 census) and 336 million (demographic analysis based on records since 1945).

[Frodo]

From Brookings:

The 2010s saw the lowest population growth in U.S. history, new census estimates show

[Frodo]

Judge Denies Feds’ Attempt to Dismiss Census Lawsuit

A federal judge excoriated the Trump administration in a ruling, saying officials in the U.S. Census Bureau violated the court’s injunction by shutting down data collection early and that the agency’s plan to count the population in the United States during a pandemic is likely to result in a less accurate count.

U.S. District Judge Lucy Koh denied the Trump administration’s attempt to dismiss the case, saying the coalition of cities, counties and civil rights groups were justified to be concerned that the government’s plan to alter the census process to accommodate the pandemic would affect federal funding and political representation in certain communities.

“The administrative record shows that the Replan will likely lead to an undercount that results in loss of crucial federal funds for programs that affect [Plaintiffs’] daily life,” Koh wrote in a 57-page ruling handed down late Tuesday night.

[Blue3]

This census is already out of date, with how the pandemic really erupted just after the Census date. I don't think there's ever been a Census result so quickly made inaccurate.

[Tender Branson]

This census is already out of date, with how the pandemic really erupted just after the Census date. I don't think there's ever been a Census result so quickly made inaccurate.

Not really.

We are talking about 150.000 Covid deaths during the data collection period.

That’s less than 0.05% of the total US population at the time.

It’s not the Plague from the Middle Ages which killed a third of the population and which would impact a census count.

Other than that, the data collection was similar in quality to previous census operations - so it’s crazy how people think this is a flawed census or outdated because of 150.000 deaths.

[pbrower2a]

There may have to be more Census work in the wake of the mass killing by COVID-19.

[Tender Branson]

There may have to be more Census work in the wake of the mass killing by COVID-19.

No.

Read my post above.

[Tender Branson]

The Census Bureau has not scheduled anything Census-related on their release calendar until at least Jan. 20th - which probably means Trump cannot alter the numbers anymore and he won’t get his hands on the new numbers either because his time is up ...

[_.]

The Census Bureau has not scheduled anything Census-related on their release calendar until at least Jan. 20th - which probably means Trump cannot alter the numbers anymore and he won’t get his hands on the new numbers either because his time is up ...

Where can we find the release calendar?

[Tender Branson]

The Census Bureau has not scheduled anything Census-related on their release calendar until at least Jan. 20th - which probably means Trump cannot alter the numbers anymore and he won’t get his hands on the new numbers either because his time is up ...

Where can we find the release calendar?

@ the bottom of their website:

https://www.calendarwiz.com/calendars/calendar.php?crd=cens1sample&op=cal&month=1&year=2021

[Frodo]

Census Bureau to miss deadline, jeopardizing Trump plan

The Census Bureau plans to announce it will miss a year-end deadline for handing in numbers used for divvying up congressional seats, a census official said. That delay could undermine President Donald Trump’s efforts to exclude people in the country illegally from the count if the figures aren’t turned in before President-elect Joe Biden takes office.

A census official who was not authorized to speak publicly on the matter confirmed the delay to the Associated Press on Wednesday.

[Tender Branson]

In theory, the 2020 Census Count must be out TODAY by law.

But that's not going to happen.

The Census Bureau just released the following below that they will miss the legal deadline and they have no updated schedule when the results are out.

Considering that data collection during summer/fall took about 2-3 months longer than usual, we can assume that the data is out between February and April.

DEC. 30, 2020— Data collection is just one part of producing a complete and accurate 2020 Census.

Since mid-October, Census Bureau experts have been hard at work on processing the data.  

As issues that could affect the accuracy of the data are detected, they are corrected. This important process, which has been a part of every decennial census, is critical to produce data that can be used for apportioning seats in the House of Representatives among the states.

The schedule for reporting this data is not static. Projected dates are fluid. We continue to process the data collected and plan to deliver a complete and accurate state population count for apportionment in early 2021, as close to the statutory deadline as possible.

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2020/2020-census-update-apportionment.html

[jimrtex]

In theory, the 2020 Census Count must be out TODAY by law.

But that's not going to happen.

The Census Bureau just released the following below that they will miss the legal deadline and they have no updated schedule when the results are out.

Considering that data collection during summer/fall took about 2-3 months longer than usual, we can assume that the data is out between February and April.

DEC. 30, 2020— Data collection is just one part of producing a complete and accurate 2020 Census.

Since mid-October, Census Bureau experts have been hard at work on processing the data.  

As issues that could affect the accuracy of the data are detected, they are corrected. This important process, which has been a part of every decennial census, is critical to produce data that can be used for apportioning seats in the House of Representatives among the states.

The schedule for reporting this data is not static. Projected dates are fluid. We continue to process the data collected and plan to deliver a complete and accurate state population count for apportionment in early 2021, as close to the statutory deadline as possible.

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2020/2020-census-update-apportionment.html

We can assume it will be out before January 20.

[Tender Branson]

In theory, the 2020 Census Count must be out TODAY by law.

But that's not going to happen.

The Census Bureau just released the following below that they will miss the legal deadline and they have no updated schedule when the results are out.

Considering that data collection during summer/fall took about 2-3 months longer than usual, we can assume that the data is out between February and April.

DEC. 30, 2020— Data collection is just one part of producing a complete and accurate 2020 Census.

Since mid-October, Census Bureau experts have been hard at work on processing the data.  

As issues that could affect the accuracy of the data are detected, they are corrected. This important process, which has been a part of every decennial census, is critical to produce data that can be used for apportioning seats in the House of Representatives among the states.

The schedule for reporting this data is not static. Projected dates are fluid. We continue to process the data collected and plan to deliver a complete and accurate state population count for apportionment in early 2021, as close to the statutory deadline as possible.

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2020/2020-census-update-apportionment.html

We can assume it will be out before January 20.

Nah, I don't think they will produce a rushed count with the only purpose that Trump gets a glimpse on those numbers ...

February is much more likely.

[Tender Branson]

Data quality in the Census was very solid, according to a press release today:

DEC. 31, 2020 — The 2020 Census data collection contained numerous quality checks, including analyzing data about census takers’ work and reinterviewing cases where the data suggested a potential problem. Every completed case and every census taker’s work went through a battery of checks designed to spot unusual patterns of work, called analytic selection. If the analytical process indicated a census taker had zero cases selected for review, it was an indication that nothing was out of the ordinary about their work characteristics. The analytic selection techniques were sufficient for detecting unusual patterns of work, alleviating the need to check every census taker and tens of millions of results through reinterviews.

(...)

Preliminary metrics on census takers’ work reveal that far below 1% (i.e., 0.4%) of census takers may have falsified their work or performed work unsuccessfully to the extent that it needed to be reworked. According to preliminary metrics, about 13% of those completed rework cases for the census takers were found to be either a hard fail or a performance fail (meaning that the cases needed to be reworked). The other 87% of rework cases examined passed the reinterview. Therefore, enumerators who may have falsified data or performed poor quality work were very rare.

The Census Bureau is committed to data quality and completed almost 1.6 million reinterviews for this purpose during a national pandemic and severe weather challenges. The Census Bureau will continue to assess 2020 Census operations and their impact on data quality, and will publicly share the information.

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2020/2020-census-nonresponse-followup-reinterview.html