Party ID with leaners in Battleground States(2018 Fox Voter Analysis Survey)
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  Party ID with leaners in Battleground States(2018 Fox Voter Analysis Survey)
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Author Topic: Party ID with leaners in Battleground States(2018 Fox Voter Analysis Survey)  (Read 359 times)
swords
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« on: December 16, 2018, 08:43:55 PM »
« edited: December 18, 2018, 06:18:17 AM by swords »

Fox News 2018 Voter Analysis

Fox News has launched an improved approach for analyzing Americans’ priorities and vote preferences on Election Day. The Fox News Voter Analysis combines survey data from NORC at the University of Chicago with voting results from The Associated Press. As more people vote early or by mail, the new method overcomes the limitations of in-person exit polls and captures the views of all Americans by integrating probability-based, state-by-state surveys with a massive online poll. The FNVA survey will show results from all 47 states in which there is a contested statewide election this November.


https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis


Florida  R +4%
FL Gov. Democrat/Lean Dem 42%  Republican/Lean Rep 46% / Independent 12%

Wisconsin  R+2%
WI Gov. Democrat/Lean Dem 43%  Republican/Lean Rep 45% / Independent 13%

Michigan R +1%
MI Sen. Democrat/Lean Dem 42%  Republican/Lean Rep 43% / Independent 15%

Pennsylvania R +1%
PA Sen. Democrat/Lean Dem 44%  Republican/Lean Rep 45% / Independent 11%

Minnesota  D +6%
MN Gov.  Democrat/Lean Dem 46%  Republican/Lean Rep 40% / Independent 14%

Ohio  R +7%
OH Sen.  Democrat/Lean Dem 41%  Republican/Lean Rep 48% / Independent 11%

Virginia  D +5%
VA Sen.  Democrat/Lean Dem 47%  Republican/Lean Rep 42% / Independent 11%

Arizona  R +6%
AZ Sen. Democrat/Lean Dem 41%  Republican/Lean Rep 47% / Independent 12%

Nevada  D +2%
NV Sen. Democrat/Lean Dem 42%  Republican/Lean Rep 44% / Independent 14%

Iowa  R +11%
IA Gov. Democrat/Lean Dem 36%  Republican/Lean Rep 47% / Independent 17%

New Hampshire   Even
NH Gov. Democrat/Lean Dem 42%  Republican/Lean Rep 42% / Independent 15%

Maine  Even
ME Gov. Democrat/Lean Dem 41%  Republican/Lean Rep 41% / Independent 18%

Texas  R +8%
TX Sen. Democrat/Lean Dem 41%  Republican/Lean Rep 49% / Independent 10%

Colorado  D +2%
CO Gov. Democrat/Lean Dem 43%  Republican/Lean Rep 41% / Independent 16%

Georgia  R +7%
GA Gov. Democrat/Lean Dem 41%  Republican/Lean Rep 48% / Independent 11%


Non Battleground
Alabama  R +30%
AL Gov. Democrat/Lean Dem 29%  Republican/Lean Rep 59% / Independent 13%

Connecticut  D +7%
CT Gov. Democrat/Lean Dem 47%  Republican/Lean Rep 40% / Independent 13%

Delaware  D +10%
DE Sen. Democrat/Lean Dem 47%  Republican/Lean Rep 37% / Independent 16%

South Carolina  R +19%
SC Gov. Democrat/Lean Dem 35%  Republican/Lean Rep 54% / Independent 12%

New Jersey  D +15%
NJ Sen. Democrat/Lean Dem 50%  Republican/Lean Rep 35% / Independent 15%

Rhode Island  D +20%
RI Gov. Democrat/Lean Dem 51%  Republican/Lean Rep 31% / Independent 18%

Oregon  D +16%
OR Gov. Democrat/Lean Dem 50%  Republican/Lean Rep 34% / Independent 16%

Kansas R +19%
KS Gov. Democrat/Lean Dem 35%  Republican/Lean Rep 54% / Independent 11%


Based on these numbers it looks like Republicans blew it with independent voters. In many cases of senatorial and gubernatorial contests, Republicans just managed to get at or slightly above the Republican/Lean Rep number which is embarrassing. I'll have to look more into this but if this is accurate then it proves that Democrats should not be gloating about how well situated they are to win in 2020. The rust belt problem is still there.

My favorite piece of info here is that Iowa is R+11. And people say it's now a toss-up, lol.

As 2018 Fox News Voter Analysis Survey


WV Sen Race
Manchin 49.6%  Morrisey 46.3%
                                  Total
Democrat/Lean Dem  32%  Manchin 92%  Morrisey 4%
Republican/Lean Rep 55%  Manchin 22%  Morrisey 76%
Independent             13%  Manchin 65%  Morriesey 22%


MT Sen Race
Tester 50.3%  Rosendale 46.8%
                                  Total
Democrat/Lean Dem  37%  Tester 98%   Rosendale 1%
Republican/Lean Rep 50%  Tester 11%   Rosendale 86%
Independent             12%  Tester 64%   Rosendale 27%
 

AZ Sen Race
Sinema 50.0%  McSally 47.6%
                                  Total
Democrat/Lean Dem  41%  Sinema 95%   McSally 4%
Republican/Lean Rep 47%  Sinema 10%   McSally 89%
Independent             12%  Sinema 54%   McSally 37%

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