Biden VP news megathread (pg 286 - been selected, announcement could be today)

[Orser67]

Biden won his first election 50 years ago, so he's probably developed some thick skin by now. And he'd be dumb not to consider her; she's a great pick on paper.

[Orser67]

https://twitter.com/ezraklein/status/1211791480693542913

[Orser67]

Warren is out. Not that a 70 year old woman who would have a GOP replacement would be particularly appealing in the first place. We also forget that she constantly butted heads with the Obama administration. It’s not going to be her.

I think the 6 are all Senators/Governors: Amy/Kamala/Duckworth/Baldwin/CCM/Lujan Grisham

Yeah, this sounds about right, though I wouldn't rule out Whitmer or Demings.

I think Warren, Abrams, and Yates will definitely be on any long list and will be the subject of a lot of media speculation, but I'm skeptical that any of the three will actually be finalists. Same with Baldwin, given Senate implications, though I'm not sure just how much priority Biden will put on that (hopefully a lot).

[Orser67]

honestly, realistically, I think it's down to Harris or Klob. No one else IMO, if we're being real here, has a realistic shot

I disagree; I think it's a mistake to be too overconfident about who will be chosen, especially when the actual choice could still be months away. The running mate choice is ultimately going to come down to decision made by a very small group of people (and possibly just Biden himself, although presumably he wouldn't completely overrule/ignore his closest advisers). Barring some massive leaks, we simply don't, and can't, fully understand what exactly he values (and how he weighs those values) and how he views his prospective running mates.

I do agree that the chances of Warren and Abrams being picked aren't all that high, but I still think that they're on a list of 10-20 plausible candidates.

[Orser67]

I think the VP being “too old” is a weak attack. Does anyone really want Biden handpicking the next leader of the party? A Biden-Warren ticket could get us out of the mess of the last 4 years and set us on a path forward, then hand the baton off to whatever younger Democrat wins the *competitive and open* primaries next cycle.

Vice-President Harris/Klobuchar/Cortez-Masto immediately become the front runners for nominee in 2024. We were robbed a wide-open race this year by Biden and Bernie, they should let us have one next time so we can actually have an election that decides where we want to go as a party.

I disagree, Biden is a white man and people project what they want (positively) on him. He has working class credentials with low income, non college whites, inoffensive to white suburban women, and close ties to the Black community with his long relationships with CBC members and standing by President Obama.

Someone could easily get into the 2024 primary and run up the Black and youth vote vs Klobuchar, or run up the rural/WWC vote against Harris. Neither would be guaranteed the nomination IMO

It's unlikely that the same candidate would get the youth vote and the 30+ Black vote. AA keep supporting establishment candidates and most young voters back anti-establishment candidates. The Dems don't have that much rural and WWC support left, and it'll only decline further. The big groups in the next primary will be Hispanics/Asians/non-AA blacks; PMC suburbanites (mainly white, but not exclusively); and AAs. If Harris can keep the two last ones she will be unbeatable unless the PMC starts drifting back to the GOP. Non-AA PoC and young whites and (to a lesser degree) AAs will form the core of the progressive coalition, but still won't be a majority. If a progressive candidate can add enough low income whites to that coalition he/she may win, but that's going to be very hard.

I mean...there is a candidate that could get both the AA vote and the youth vote, but she is the ultimate dark horse. Pressely is a freshman and lacks legislative credentials, but she does have some leadership experience from Boston. She doesn't come from a swing state, but she has key ties to both groups. However, she is the ultimate dark horse and her selection would be more in line with Romney's choice of Ryan. Biden would need to have full trust of Warren and Kerry, probably requiring Kerry to be on the vetting committee, in order to push her forwards.

I agree; she hasn't gotten a lot of attention as a potential running mate, but I think Pressley is a great sleeper pick if Biden's main goal is to energize youth turnout and court the left wing of the party. And personally, I think she'd be a much better pick than Abrams.

[Orser67]

I think the VP being “too old” is a weak attack. Does anyone really want Biden handpicking the next leader of the party? A Biden-Warren ticket could get us out of the mess of the last 4 years and set us on a path forward, then hand the baton off to whatever younger Democrat wins the *competitive and open* primaries next cycle.

Vice-President Harris/Klobuchar/Cortez-Masto immediately become the front runners for nominee in 2024. We were robbed a wide-open race this year by Biden and Bernie, they should let us have one next time so we can actually have an election that decides where we want to go as a party.

I disagree, Biden is a white man and people project what they want (positively) on him. He has working class credentials with low income, non college whites, inoffensive to white suburban women, and close ties to the Black community with his long relationships with CBC members and standing by President Obama.

Someone could easily get into the 2024 primary and run up the Black and youth vote vs Klobuchar, or run up the rural/WWC vote against Harris. Neither would be guaranteed the nomination IMO

It's unlikely that the same candidate would get the youth vote and the 30+ Black vote. AA keep supporting establishment candidates and most young voters back anti-establishment candidates. The Dems don't have that much rural and WWC support left, and it'll only decline further. The big groups in the next primary will be Hispanics/Asians/non-AA blacks; PMC suburbanites (mainly white, but not exclusively); and AAs. If Harris can keep the two last ones she will be unbeatable unless the PMC starts drifting back to the GOP. Non-AA PoC and young whites and (to a lesser degree) AAs will form the core of the progressive coalition, but still won't be a majority. If a progressive candidate can add enough low income whites to that coalition he/she may win, but that's going to be very hard.

I mean...there is a candidate that could get both the AA vote and the youth vote, but she is the ultimate dark horse. Pressely is a freshman and lacks legislative credentials, but she does have some leadership experience from Boston. She doesn't come from a swing state, but she has key ties to both groups. However, she is the ultimate dark horse and her selection would be more in line with Romney's choice of Ryan. Biden would need to have full trust of Warren and Kerry, probably requiring Kerry to be on the vetting committee, in order to push her forwards.

I agree; she hasn't gotten a lot of attention as a potential running mate, but I think Pressley is a great sleeper pick if Biden's main goal is to energize youth turnout and court the left wing of the party. And personally, I think she'd be a much better pick than Abrams.

Same issues as Abrams, she'd be at least a Trump-level anathema to suburban whites and Biden needs them overwhelmingly in his camp far more than he needs turbocharged Berniecrats.

Oh I agree, and I'd much rather go with several other candidates. My point is more that I'm surprised she isn't in the conversation, especially given that Abrams is.

[Orser67]

538 did another VP draft, their list was:

Harris
Pressley
Klobuchar
Duckworth
Warren
Cortez Masto
Lujan Grisham
Abrams
Whitmer

[Orser67]

Yeah, Pressley stood out the most to me as well. I argued for her as a sleeper pick a few pages back in this thread, but certainly wouldn't have picked her second.

Here's a relevant part of the 538 chat regarding Pressley:

sarahf: So I’m not totally sure I agree with my own pick, but if part of the optics around Biden’s VP pick requires appealing to black voters or progressive voters, I wonder if he can’t try and do both by picking Rep. Ayanna Pressley...

sarahf: The lack of experience definitely cuts against Pressley. But if Biden’s top VP considerations are appealing to black and progressive voters, I think it’s impressive she can check both boxes. I also thought she was a pretty effective endorser of Warren in the primary, but yeah, I admit that I’m not convinced this will actually happen.

[Orser67]

I wonder what skeletons CCM has in her closet...

(Granted, she may just genuinely not want to be president/VP)

[Orser67]

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1267566596438003714

I can see why Bottoms, but why would the protests elevate Demings any more than they would Harris?

Only because Harris is already a top-tier contender

[Orser67]

Sabato/Kondik's new VP rankings:

1. Harris
2. Demings
3. Duckworth
4. Warren
5. Baldwin
6. Raimondo
7. Lujan Grisham
8. Whitmer
9. Hassan
10. Abrams

There are several other possibilities who didn’t make our top 10 but could merit strong consideration. We already mentioned Klobuchar. Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, former National Security Adviser Susan Rice, and Rep. Terri Sewell (D, AL-7) are other possible black contenders, although for various reasons we didn’t think they merited inclusion in the top 10. Other wild card possibilities include former Gov. Janet Napolitano (D-AZ), Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY), and others. We’ll update these rankings as we get closer to Biden’s selection, unless he surprises us with an announcement earlier than he has suggested.

I've been advocating for Demings and Duckworth for a long time, so it's cool to see them in the top three.

[Orser67]

I definitely see this as one scenario for how the VP search could play out:

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1273574062820921345

[Orser67]

Lol

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1273809984204214273

(though for the record, I think Klobuchar has a good point)