Biden VP news megathread (pg 286 - been selected, announcement could be today)

[BaldEagle1991]

It’s Kamala Harris.

Putting anyone less popular and experienced than Harris is a risk for the average swing voter.

Also putting a White woman is a risk to the large Black voting bloc of the Democratic Party.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Final guesses?

We don't *know* anything, so obviously this is from the gut, but I think it'll be Susan Rice. If not, Harris. Anyone else would be a major surprise. Warren hasn't been in contention for weeks IMO.

Almost no one would really displease me. I'm very bored.

You don't know that.  (I know you said it's your opinion, but there's insufficient evidence to base that opinion upon on.)

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Honestly, I have absolutely no idea. This whole thing has been very emotionally draining. I desperately want it to be Kamala though.

[South Dakota Democrat]

If I'm going for who has the most likely individual chance of anyone, my prediction would be Harris.  However, I think she has a less than 50% chance of being picked...so while of any one person, I think it's most likely her, I think the field at large has a higher chance than her, if that makes sense (as in I think there's a slightly  more than 50% chance it's not Kamala, but that slightly greater than 50% chance is divided among several contenders).

[JMT]

Final guesses?

It's difficult to predict, but I'm going with Susan Rice. It seems that he knows Rice best, and given how far ahead Biden is in polling, I think he'll pick the person he wants to govern with the most, and won't consider electoral concerns as much.

[Roll Roons]

As I've said many times, I want it to be Duckworth, but I think Harris is the most likely.

[Mike Thick]

I would be very, very surprised if it was someone besides Harris

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I think it might be Rice, but Harris is also a very likely pick

[BidenHarris2020]

Elizabeth, unfortunately

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I keep hoping he'll name his jogging partner the next time he's asked about his running mate. That would be a good troll.

[BaldEagle1991]

Final guesses?

It's difficult to predict, but I'm going with Susan Rice. It seems that he knows Rice best, and given how far ahead Biden is in polling, I think he'll pick the person he wants to govern with the most, and won't consider electoral concerns as much.

I think Biden is not making the same mistakes Hillary is making with a pick like that and for that reason.

[BidenHarris2020]

Final guesses?

It's difficult to predict, but I'm going with Susan Rice. It seems that he knows Rice best, and given how far ahead Biden is in polling, I think he'll pick the person he wants to govern with the most, and won't consider electoral concerns as much.

I think Biden is not making the same mistakes Hillary is making with a pick like that and for that reason.

I'm still mad it wasn't Clinton\Warren or Clinton\Booker...

[South Dakota Democrat]

Elizabeth, unfortunately

She's my #1 choice.

[OBD]

I've said it before, but at this point I'd be surprised if it wasn't Harris, and I'd be foolish to guess someone else. Here are what I think the probabilities look like at this point.

1. Kamala Harris - 65% chance
2. Susan Rice - 15% chance
3. Gretchen Whitmer - 8% chance
4. Liz Warren - 5% chance -
5. Tammy Duckworth - 4% chance
6. Val Demings - 2% chance
7. Karen Bass/others - 1% chance

Here's my order of preferences btw

T1. Val Demings - helps out in a swing state, checks all the boxes
T1. Tammy Duckworth - being a vet helps, and she'd give Biden a boost in the Midwest. Both of these picks are very unlikely, sadly
T3. Kamala Harris - the safe pick. I wouldn't be enthused about her, but she has a high floor in terms of electoral impact
T3. Gretchen Whitmer - locking up Michigan would be nice, but I don't like that she's getting lifted out of her first Gov term, and she's also not a minority
5. Liz Warren - from a safe state and white, but could help unite the partyMIGHT gain like 10 bernie bro votes
6. Susan Rice - probably the most 'simpatico' with Biden but she doesn't help at all electorally
7. Karen Bass - was #1 for me as she's both a minority and a progressive (helps bring Sanders folks into the fold) but all the weird sh*t eliminates her sadly

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I think Rice would be a better pick for him than Harris, because the narrative would be more that she was picked for her experience rather than Identity politics.

[NewYorkExpress]

As much I would like it to be Michelle Obama...it's going to be one of Harris, Whitmer or Demings.

I don't think he'd put Rice on the ticket (or appoint her Secretary of State, I doubt he actually wants to relitigate Benghazi), and while Demings has huge flaws, she could prove to be very helpful in a key swing state. Same with Whitmer.

Harris is probably the best Governing partner, and that's the choice I'd make if I were Biden.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I think Rice would be a better pick for him than Harris, because the narrative would be more that she was picked for her experience rather than Identity politics.

...and what makes you think Harris, former DA, AG, and current United States Senator, lacks experience and is therefor the "identity politics" pick, but Rice, who has never even held public office, is the "experience" candidate?

[DrScholl]

I think Rice would be a better pick for him than Harris, because the narrative would be more that she was picked for her experience rather than Identity politics.

Rice is less experienced though. She's never actually run an executive office and has served in an advisory capacity.

And your President supports running people others over with cars because of imagined slights. That's identity politics.

[BidenHarris2020]

I think Rice would be a better pick for him than Harris, because the narrative would be more that she was picked for her experience rather than Identity politics.

Not this "Identity Politics" nonsense again...

[Flo 2.0]

so I think it's gonna be Tammy Duckworth in the end because she seems like the most capable in this moment, she can appeal to a broad subsection of Americans (and doesn't have the baggage of being in law enforcement in this political climate), she isn't (or at least doesn't appear to be) an opportunist from how I've interpreted what I've seen so far, she seems to have a similar political style to Biden while complementing his weaknesses as a candidate (younger, veteran, more analytical it seems) like I really think she is going to be the pick!

but in the end people aren't going to vote for the veep, it's still a trump vs Biden race and I think it'll still be a referendum on Trump in the coming few months

[Adam Griffin]

Romney announced Ryan on August 11, 2012.
Obama announced Biden on August 23, 2008.

Both of these announcements were on a Saturday (Kaine & Pence were announced on two consecutive Fridays).

People forget that the 2016 conventions were insanely early, so it really hasn't been late for such an announcement from Biden. The last conventions combined with increasingly 24/7 coverage just make it feel that way.

At any rate, Monday & Friday/Saturday afternoons make the most sense from a media cycle standpoint (get in on the first big haul of he week or wait until nothing is going on and dominate the weekend). I'd say the odds are best for an announcement either tomorrow or on the 15th.

[soundchaser]

Well, since it seems like it’ll be tomorrow...I really hope it’ll be Warren, but I recognize that she might not be the best fit for the current moment. I suspect it’s Harris, but I genuinely wouldn’t be surprised if it were any of the contenders we’ve heard about since the process started.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

As much I would like it to be Michelle Obama...it's going to be one of Harris, Whitmer or Demings.

I don't think he'd put Rice on the ticket (or appoint her Secretary of State, I doubt he actually wants to relitigate Benghazi), and while Demings has huge flaws, she could prove to be very helpful in a key swing state. Same with Whitmer.

Harris is probably the best Governing partner, and that's the choice I'd make if I were Biden.

No one cares about Benghazi, it happened years ago and the public has moved on from it.

I think Rice would be a better pick for him than Harris, because the narrative would be more that she was picked for her experience rather than Identity politics.

That's an incredibly asinine thing to say. Both Rice and Harris have immense experience in their fields. Rice, however, has never held public office.

Rice has tons of experience in foreign policy, which was the reason Obama picked Biden back in 2008. Kamala Harris was the one who went after Biden for working with segregationists and complained about busing. If he picks her, it will look completely motivated by identity politics since there were many other qualified men and women to choose to give the VP too. Rice at least he can explain away that he knows her and that they have done tons of work together, so she is less susceptible to identity politics.

[DrScholl]

Rice has tons of experience in foreign policy, which was the reason Obama picked Biden back in 2008. Kamala Harris was the one who went after Biden for working with segregationists and complained about busing. If he picks her, it will look completely motivated by identity politics since there were many other qualified men and women to choose to give the VP too. Rice at least he can explain away that he knows her and that they have done tons of work together, so she is less susceptible to identity politics.

With a record like Harris has, Biden doesn't have to explain anything away for ignorant people who think political offices are only for white men. She'd have the most executive experience of any Vice President since Nelson Rockefeller.

[Ferguson97]

Final guesses?

I refer to my flair and prediction from July 9, 2018

Biden is the most electable out of anybody on the list. Personally, I think a Biden/Harris ticket (with Harris running in 24) would be our best chance at beating Trump.