Biden VP news megathread (pg 286 - been selected, announcement could be today)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Val Demings is much more inclusive to help Biden win FL than Duckworth helps Biden any other swing states

[Jopow]

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/06/biden-narrows-vp-pick-six-women-look-not-list

Now its just down to a few...

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Yeah Biden should take someone from IL and it's safe Dem. No.

Swinging a potentially competitive state isn't really the main focus in a VP pick though, at least not in this day and age. The "favourite son" effect from a VP pick in such a nationalized political environment is a minor consideration at best. It's not just Duckworth, most potential VP picks aren't really going to have much of an effect on swing states.

Harris and Warren are both from extremely safe D states. Lujan Grisham may have coattails in NM, but that's not really a swing state nationally. Whitmer's coattails could help in Michigan, but Biden has consistently outpolled Trump there since early 2019--if Michigan comes down to a minor Veep effect, then Biden has probably lost the election. Demings is from Florida, but she's a congresswoman in a safe D district. Boosting turnout in Orlando may tip Florida if it's very close there (which looks likely), but she doesn't have the appeal that a statewide officeholder would have.

The two prospective picks that could tip certain states over the line are KLB and Baldwin. KLB would boost turnout in metro Atlanta (which is GA's main metro area unlike Orlando), and possibly Georgia's black belt. This is the right combination for flipping Georgia. Baldwin would solidify Biden's lead in crucial Wisconsin, but also leave a senate seat vulnerable.

[Lord Halifax]

I think Demings is the best pick. She’s a southern African-American, perfect for turnout in FL GA NC. Her moderate record and law enforcement background will help her in the suburbs and even with WWC. Riding the motorcycle can’t hurt as well, A LOT less elitist than Harris.

A law enforcement background is not exactly going to be an advantage with young voters (regardless of race), and that's the group Biden will have the most trouble turning out. Apart from a few years in Congress she doesn't have any obvious advantages over KLB.

Whoever gets picked will Biden's designated successor and the party's likely 2024 candidate. Demings will be 67 in 2024 and the Democrats need to stop running "senior citizens" for president, even Harris will be 60 on election day 2024. KLB will only be 54, which is a more reasonable age, even if I would prefer someone who would be in their late 40s.

[Lord Halifax]

The two prospective picks that could tip certain states over the line are KLB and Baldwin. KLB would boost turnout in metro Atlanta (which is GA's main metro area unlike Orlando), and possibly Georgia's black belt. This is the right combination for flipping Georgia.

That's an important point, and Demings won't have nearly the same effect. Florida is a big and diverse state with no dominant metro like Atlanta.

[Mr. Morden]

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/06/biden-narrows-vp-pick-six-women-look-not-list

Now its just down to a few...

That's a summary of the AP story that was posted here yesterday, and is contradicted by the NYT story from today, which gives a longer list:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=309337.msg7403311#msg7403311

[politicallefty]

Yeah Biden should take someone from IL and it's safe Dem. No.

There isn't really any evidence that picking someone from a swing state helps them win.

Trump: picked Pence, Indiana is safe R.

Obama: picked Biden, Delaware is safe D.

Bush: picked Cheney, Texas/Wyoming is safe R.

Not only that, but I remember how people were saying Edwards could help put NC in play in 2004 when Kerry picked him (even I sort of fell for that). Ironically, I think the most consequential VP nominee that affected their home state the most in recent years was Sarah Palin. I remember the polling in 2008 before she was picked was showing Obama highly competitive in Alaska. Her approvals as governor were something like 85% or so when she was chosen as the running mate. I highly doubt he would have won it, but I imagine if McCain had chosen someone else, Alaska's result probably would've looked closer to Montana or the Dakotas.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Honestly, from an electoral advantage standpoint, KLB seems like the best pick. She has a unique advantage in metro Atlanta, which is one of the fastest D-trending areas in the country. Boost turnout there and the black belt, and the strong Trump support in rural white Georgia is cancelled out. She also has an obvious connection with black southerners, who could flip NC and FL too. She's also a Washington outsider, which is a disadvantage in a VP, but probably an advantage in a running mate. While Demings and Abrams are also southern black women, Demings has the baggage of being an ex-cop, while Abrams doesn't have exec experience and isn't really in contention anymore.

If only Duckworth was black, Biden would pick her in a heartbeat. A relatively young black woman veteran, who lost both her legs in combat, and went on to be a Senator from the 5th most populous state? Now that's a story that will excite people. But I get the sense that Biden feels he "owes" it to the African American community, who arguably saved his primary campaign.

[Ogre Mage]

I hate how it's almost a mandate that they must be a Senator. Biden seems to be playing around with that, or at least appearing to do so with Bottoms/Demings making the shortlist.

I kinda feel like the "Experience, aka a Senator" take is being used largely as a crutch by the "Must be Harris" crowd. Democrats are gonna turn out & vote for Biden no matter who his running mate is. But it can't be a big city Mayor or Congresswoman because reasons, must be a Senator. And gee, I wonder who that narrows it down to.

I posted earlier in the thread that history very strongly suggests the pick will be a U.S. Senator.  From 1944 on, the Democratic running mate has almost always been a U.S. Senator.  The only exceptions were Shriver in 1972 (who replaced electroshock therapy Senator Eagleton) and Geraldine Ferraro in 1984.  Both of those tickets lost in a landslide.

I would be surprised if Biden, a 30+ year veteran of the Senate, broke the precedent.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_major_party_presidential_tickets

[7,052,770]

Is there any hard data out there on what white Atlanta suburbanites think of Bottoms?

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I hate how it's almost a mandate that they must be a Senator. Biden seems to be playing around with that, or at least appearing to do so with Bottoms/Demings making the shortlist.

I kinda feel like the "Experience, aka a Senator" take is being used largely as a crutch by the "Must be Harris" crowd. Democrats are gonna turn out & vote for Biden no matter who his running mate is. But it can't be a big city Mayor or Congresswoman because reasons, must be a Senator. And gee, I wonder who that narrows it down to.

I posted earlier in the thread that history very strongly suggests the pick will be a U.S. Senator.  From 1944 on, the Democratic running mate has almost always been a U.S. Senator.  The only exceptions were Shriver in 1972 (who replaced electroshock therapy Senator Eagleton) and Geraldine Ferraro in 1984.  Both of those tickets lost in a landslide.

I saw that post earlier. I just don't think Biden is guaranteed defeat (and certainly not a 49-state landslide defeat) if he picks a non-Senator. Anyone in politics would be more experienced than the guy currently in the White House.

And if we know he'll pick a Senator anyway, why even play the speculation game when, given the parameters & unwritten rules set forth, it seems 99.5% certain that he'll pick Harris regardless of what the articles or shortlists say

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hes gonna pick Warren, anyways.

[Devils30]

People here should consider the real possibility the media hasn’t pierced the VP vetting teams bubble one bit yet and won’t.

[politics_king]

There is still one realistic month left of the vetting process, by that point Biden should be down to his Top 3 and pick in those last two weeks who he really feels best moving with forward.

[Devils30]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/biden-running-mate-search-zeroes-in-on-group-that-includes-at-least-four-black-women/2020/06/13/d7278434-aceb-11ea-9063-e69bd6520940_story.html

Basically confirms nothing more than the NYT article about the 6 mentioned in AP and Duckworth, Baldwin and Whitmer.

[pppolitics]

Biden running mate search zeroes in on group that includes at least four black women

Joe Biden’s search for a running mate has advanced to the next phase as his campaign conducts more extensive reviews of some prospects, including at least several African American women, according to people with knowledge of the situation.

Among the candidates who have progressed to the point of more comprehensive vetting or have the potential to do so are Sen. Kamala D. Harris (D-Calif.), Rep. Val Demings (D-Fla.), former national security adviser Susan E. Rice and Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, all of whom are black. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), who is white, is also in that group, as is New Mexico Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham, who is Latina.

The pool of prospects remains fluid, and some close Biden allies suggested other contenders could also face the more intensive vetting process. The people describing the situation spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive private conversations and an evolving search process.

[...]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/biden-running-mate-search-zeroes-in-on-group-that-includes-at-least-four-black-women/2020/06/13/d7278434-aceb-11ea-9063-e69bd6520940_story.html

[henster]

https://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/atlanta/mayoral-candidate-admits-to-not-fully-paying-water-bills-for-years/512687032/

Something like this could definitely trip up Bottoms. Its not like medical bills or student debt, not being able to pay your water bill when you're a public official is a red flag.

[politics_king]

https://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/atlanta/mayoral-candidate-admits-to-not-fully-paying-water-bills-for-years/512687032/

Something like this could definitely trip up Bottoms. Its not like medical bills or student debt, not being able to pay your water bill when you're a public official is a red flag.

Lol you got to be kidding me. This is a nothing burger.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Veep is gonna be Warren, it wont be Harris. Its almost July 4th and Biden has to select that Veep before August and will pick a Senator.

Warren is similar to Jill Biden and both Warren and Jill have a friendship.

[Ferguson97]

The Veep is gonna be Warren, it wont be Harris. Its almost July 4th and Biden has to select that Veep before August and will pick a Senator.

Warren is similar to Jill Biden and both Warren and Jill have a friendship.

I'd bet anything it's not Warren.

[CookieDamage]

KLB is not gonna be veep for sure after this, but she was never likely anyways

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Lol. BC Hydro charges no late fees, the bill is $18 a month, and you don't get final disconnection notices until you're owing much more. I don't always pay my bill on time because it's a pain in the ass and I've got more important things to do.

I guess I'm the worst.

(Indeed I am, but for much worthier reasons.)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Veep is gonna be Warren, it wont be Harris. Its almost July 4th and Biden has to select that Veep before August and will pick a Senator.

Warren is similar to Jill Biden and both Warren and Jill have a friendship.

I'd bet anything it's not Warren.

Warren raised a ton of money during the primaries, she is a good choice. Just because she isnt like Harris, whom said many times she rather be in Senate than Veep,  Warren said she stands with Jill Biden, when she endorsed Joe

Harris is a media Veep creation, on Al Shapton show, Harris said she prefers the Senate, but if asked she would do it

[President Johnson]

KLB is not gonna be veep for sure after this, but she was never likely anyways

Yeah, I thought this as well. However, I didn't expect her to be picked even before. Barring some surprise or smoking gun in the vetting process, it's going to be either Kamala or Val Demings. I'm sure he's going with a black woman after recent weeks.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden is gonna pick a Senator. Picking someone from South FL as African American doesnt help Biden.  Val Demings wont be picked. That's why Biden is going with Abrams. 

The protests will die down, Lebron James was close to Stephen Jackson, and was very vocal in the Trayvon Martin.  Once Lakers start playing, there wont be anymore protests.

There isnt a dime's worth of differences between Warren or Harris. Jill Biden has a friendship with Warren