Texas Suburban Counties Political Trends

[Thunder98]

I saw these graphs from Texas Tribune and it caught my eye how much the Suburban counties in the Austin, Dallas and Houston Metros changed in the past 18 years.





https://www.texastribune.org/2018/11/07/are-texas-suburbs-slipping-away-republicans/

[RINO Tom]

Yeah, it's not good, LOL.

[Technocracy Timmy]

“Likely R. PVI is too R. Trump/Cruz/2018 House results were a fluke.” - Old School Republican

[lfromnj]

“Likely R. PVI is too R. Trump/Cruz/2018 House results were a fluke.” - Old School Republican

TBF it is likely R in 2020 but closer to Lean IMO.And I have been one of the largest Texas blue 2020 people here.

It is funny how delusional people are about these trends and still think Ohio is a competitive state and Texas was a one off fluke and as soon as trump is gone Texas will go back to normal.Using the governor race is like using the AR 2010 governor race. I still like how people are using the Ohio senate race as an example of its still competitive when the closest thing is probably 2012 MO. Renacci was called Ed Fitzgerald with a driver's license,=.

[IceSpear]

Press F to pay your respects to RINO Tom.

[Politician]

A better question is: How did Romney do so well in wealthy suburbs?

[YE]

A better question is: How did Romney do so well in wealthy suburbs?

Because Obama wanted to increase government revenue.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Yeah, it's not good, LOL.

Without TX the GOP has no path to the WH

[Technocracy Timmy]

Yeah, it's not good, LOL.

Without TX the GOP has no path to the WH

[ElectionsGuy]

Yeah, it's not good, LOL.

Without TX the GOP has no path to the WH

Well, there is maybe one scenario...

271 to 267. But if this is the case they're probably winning Georgia, Florida, and North Carolina all by less than 1%. I personally can't see Texas flipping without Georgia.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Yeah, it's not good, LOL.

Without TX the GOP has no path to the WH

Well, there is maybe one scenario...

271 to 267. But if this is the case they're probably winning Georgia, Florida, and North Carolina all by less than 1%. I personally can't see Texas flipping without Georgia.

That map wouldnt be enough after redistricting

[Banana Republican]

Yeah, it's not good, LOL.

Without TX the GOP has no path to the WH

Well, there is maybe one scenario...

271 to 267. But if this is the case they're probably winning Georgia, Florida, and North Carolina all by less than 1%. I personally can't see Texas flipping without Georgia.

That map wouldnt be enough after redistricting

Yeah. They could maybe win ME, but that may not even be enough without TX after reapportionment, and even if it were, would be a VERY narrow path. After ME, Rs would have to start flipping states like RI, OR, or VT. Or VA, but if Dems improve in TX, that same suburban trend will also help Dems further in VA.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Yeah, it's not good, LOL.

Without TX the GOP has no path to the WH

Well, there is maybe one scenario...

271 to 267. But if this is the case they're probably winning Georgia, Florida, and North Carolina all by less than 1%. I personally can't see Texas flipping without Georgia.

That map wouldnt be enough after redistricting

Yeah. They could maybe win ME, but that may not even be enough without TX after reapportionment, and even if it were, would be a VERY narrow path. After ME, Rs would have to start flipping states like RI, OR, or VT. Or VA, but if Dems improve in TX, that same suburban trend will also help Dems further in VA.

Well what would happen is in 8-12 years the map will realign significantly

[Banana Republican]

Yeah, it's not good, LOL.

Without TX the GOP has no path to the WH

Well, there is maybe one scenario...

271 to 267. But if this is the case they're probably winning Georgia, Florida, and North Carolina all by less than 1%. I personally can't see Texas flipping without Georgia.

That map wouldnt be enough after redistricting

Yeah. They could maybe win ME, but that may not even be enough without TX after reapportionment, and even if it were, would be a VERY narrow path. After ME, Rs would have to start flipping states like RI, OR, or VT. Or VA, but if Dems improve in TX, that same suburban trend will also help Dems further in VA.

Well what would happen is in 8-12 years the map will realign significantly

I do agree something like that is possible in the future, but it will require some shifts in the GOP.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Yeah, it's not good, LOL.

Without TX the GOP has no path to the WH

Well, there is maybe one scenario...

271 to 267. But if this is the case they're probably winning Georgia, Florida, and North Carolina all by less than 1%. I personally can't see Texas flipping without Georgia.

That map wouldnt be enough after redistricting

Yeah. They could maybe win ME, but that may not even be enough without TX after reapportionment, and even if it were, would be a VERY narrow path. After ME, Rs would have to start flipping states like RI, OR, or VT. Or VA, but if Dems improve in TX, that same suburban trend will also help Dems further in VA.

Well what would happen is in 8-12 years the map will realign significantly

I do agree something like that is possible in the future, but it will require some shifts in the GOP.

Well it would , being locked out of the WH would do that

[lfromnj]

Yeah, it's not good, LOL.

Without TX the GOP has no path to the WH

Well, there is maybe one scenario...

271 to 267. But if this is the case they're probably winning Georgia, Florida, and North Carolina all by less than 1%. I personally can't see Texas flipping without Georgia.

That map wouldnt be enough after redistricting

Yeah. They could maybe win ME, but that may not even be enough without TX after reapportionment, and even if it were, would be a VERY narrow path. After ME, Rs would have to start flipping states like RI, OR, or VT. Or VA, but if Dems improve in TX, that same suburban trend will also help Dems further in VA.

Well what would happen is in 8-12 years the map will realign significantly

I do agree something like that is possible in the future, but it will require some shifts in the GOP.

Well it would , being locked out of the WH would do that

I highly doubt a party would be locked out permanently for more than 3-4 terms . A recession will happen in those years. However it will force the GOP to change a lot .

[Existing in the context]

Yeah, it's not good, LOL.

Without TX the GOP has no path to the WH

Yes, they can they just have to cheat. They can create mass voting centers per counties, eliminate early voting altogether, remove second languages on ballots, limit the number of voting machines in Democratic-leaning precincts, purge voters who don't vote annually, trash absentee ballots, reject absentee ballots for no reason until judge rules, manipulate the census numbers, limit voter ID to federally issued only, require proof residency to vote, bring back butterfly ballots, repeal the Voting Rights Act of 1965 and require a test to receive registration with a 30 day waiting period for failure.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Yeah, it's not good, LOL.

Without TX the GOP has no path to the WH

Well, there is maybe one scenario...

271 to 267. But if this is the case they're probably winning Georgia, Florida, and North Carolina all by less than 1%. I personally can't see Texas flipping without Georgia.

That map wouldnt be enough after redistricting

Yeah. They could maybe win ME, but that may not even be enough without TX after reapportionment, and even if it were, would be a VERY narrow path. After ME, Rs would have to start flipping states like RI, OR, or VT. Or VA, but if Dems improve in TX, that same suburban trend will also help Dems further in VA.

Well what would happen is in 8-12 years the map will realign significantly

I do agree something like that is possible in the future, but it will require some shifts in the GOP.

Well it would , being locked out of the WH would do that

I highly doubt a party would be locked out permanently for more than 3-4 terms . A recession will happen in those years. However it will force the GOP to change a lot .

That's what I said, being locked out for 3 terms would force a party to change.

[Frodo]

Yeah, it's not good, LOL.

Without TX the GOP has no path to the WH

Yes, they can they just have to cheat. They can create mass voting centers per counties, eliminate early voting altogether, remove second languages on ballots, limit the number of voting machines in Democratic-leaning precincts, purge voters who don't vote annually, trash absentee ballots, reject absentee ballots for no reason until judge rules, manipulate the census numbers, limit voter ID to federally issued only, require proof residency to vote, bring back butterfly ballots, repeal the Voting Rights Act of 1965 and require a test to receive registration with a 30 day waiting period for failure.

In short, restore Jim Crow laws but with a 21st century twist. 

[NOVA Green]

I saw these graphs from Texas Tribune and it caught my eye how much the Suburban counties in the Austin, Dallas and Houston Metros changed in the past 18 years.





https://www.texastribune.org/2018/11/07/are-texas-suburbs-slipping-away-republicans/

The problem gets much deeper once you start delving into the details...

Look at the Harris County Precinct Results for the 2018 US-SEN Election for example...

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/default/item/2018-Texas-midterm-elections-Harris-County-90400.php

1.) Start scrolling through the precinct level results in the 'PUB heartland of NW-Harris County (Where I lived for Four Years)...

Basically once you start crossing FM-1960 and start rolling up SH-249 and SH-290, not to mention the I-45 heading towards Spring, you start to see dramatic swings among Anglo Populations and Middle-Class Latino Populations not as predisposed to vote Democratic in normal Years...



2.) Cruz naturally held strong in the "Energy Corridor" of West Houston...

3.) Still, the rapidly growing Exurban community of Katy, Texas was much closer than one might have expected, within the West Houston Coastal Praries....

4.) Sugarland is now looking like a Democratic stronghold, outside of the ritzy district by the fake lakes (WTF )

5.) Wait did Friendswood, Texas almost vote for BETO ()

Houston, 'Pubs have a MASSIVE PROBLEM that is not going anywhere....

[cwh2018]

IF/when a democrat next wins statewide how many counties will they need to win to take it?.  Beto won 32, I assume if a dem is winning they will win about 35 counties,basically what they have now with bigger margins with maybe 2 or 3 other big counties flipping.  What is the story with Montgomery in the Houston suburbs, with it's continued growth and young population with it be a county that the GOP candidate carries in the low sixties in 10 years time.  It seems like one of the safest large counties (>500,000) along with Utah county in the country.

[lfromnj]

IF/when a democrat next wins statewide how many counties will they need to win to take it?.  Beto won 32, I assume if a dem is winning they will win about 35 counties,basically what they have now with bigger margins with maybe 2 or 3 other big counties flipping.  What is the story with Montgomery in the Houston suburbs, with it's continued growth and young population with it be a county that the GOP candidate carries in the low sixties in 10 years time.  It seems like one of the safest large counties (>500,000) along with Utah county in the country.

Technically none as the closest cruz county was either collin or Denton which was plus 7 cruz while the state was plus 2.5 cruz.beto won all his benchmark counties. He just didn't get the margins .

[pbrower2a]

Democrats take Texas statewide if they win Nueces, Collin, Denton, and Tarrant (probably tiny Rockwall as well) Counties. Brazos (Bryan and College Station), McLennan (Waco), and Bell (Temple-Killeen) are possible. 

I can't see Democrats winning Ector (Odessa), Midland (Midland), Lubbock (Lubbock), either Porter or Randall (Amarillo), or Taylor (Abilene) anytime soon.  That is Texas  west of the urban corridor west of 35 and 35W.  The small cities near I-20 east of the 'Metroplex' (Tyler, Longview, and Marshall) seem to fit into the pattern of the Deep South. 

Except for the counties of the Lower Rio Grande Valley, the rural-urban split in Texas is huge. Trump won urban-suburban Tarrant County 52-43 but won neighboring, rural Parker County 82-15. I'm guessing that the small farmers are selling out to the corporate farmers and using the proceeds of their sales to start over comfortably in urban Texas.

But -- rural Texas is shrinking in population as Texas becomes more urban. So if the county map becomes starker, the population centers matter far more. Texas has large minority populations, and it is no longer the 'rube' state of under-educated people that it used to be. To say that it is becoming more like Wisconsin than like Alabama may be an overstatement, but not by much.

[The Mikado]

Democrats take Texas statewide if they win Nueces, Collin, Denton, and Tarrant (probably tiny Rockwall as well) Counties. Brazos (Bryan and College Station), McLennan (Waco), and Bell (Temple-Killeen) are possible. 

Out of those, the Democratic candidate doesn't really need to "win" any of them, though they probably should win Nueces. Tying in Tarrant and losing Collin and Denton by mid-single digits would be good enough for a tied TX map. It's a matter of margins.

[Banana Republican]

Democrats take Texas statewide if they win Nueces, Collin, Denton, and Tarrant (probably tiny Rockwall as well) Counties. Brazos (Bryan and College Station), McLennan (Waco), and Bell (Temple-Killeen) are possible. 

Out of those, the Democratic candidate doesn't really need to "win" any of them, though they probably should win Nueces. Tying in Tarrant and losing Collin and Denton by mid-single digits would be good enough for a tied TX map. It's a matter of margins.

Yep, it is all about the margins. Beto pretty much flipped all the counties that Dems need to flip to win a narrow majority. Only Collin (maybe) and possibly Denton need to flip, and again that is a maybe at the most.

Counties like Brazos/Mclennan/Bell will likely gradually trend Dem relative to the nation as a whole because they have reasonably high non-white populations (though not on the high end for TX), but they do not in any way need to flip. Republicans are maxed out in the more rural parts of those sorts of counties already. You cannot get more than 100% of the white rural/exurban vote, which is pretty much where they are already at.