SC Megathread 2020: Graham Crackers, Cunning-Ham Sandwiches and Duncan Donuts
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  SC Megathread 2020: Graham Crackers, Cunning-Ham Sandwiches and Duncan Donuts
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Author Topic: SC Megathread 2020: Graham Crackers, Cunning-Ham Sandwiches and Duncan Donuts  (Read 37882 times)
Rookie Yinzer
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« Reply #150 on: September 16, 2020, 01:21:18 PM »

Interestingly, we were just hired (relatively quickly, and extremely rare this close to the election) by an IE working on this race and the Boroughs race. South Carolina is a state I cover but haven't polled in since 2010. Will be interesting to get to work and see what the numbers look like.
Awesome! If he's ahead in SC-02, I know Harrison is absolutely killing it in SC-01. I'm excited for this race and just threw Jaime another couple of bucks.
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Lognog
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« Reply #151 on: September 16, 2020, 02:45:19 PM »

48-48 according to Quinnipiac, I'm very cautiously optimistic. Although I think it's going to be a 2016 MO senate race
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Brittain33
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« Reply #152 on: September 16, 2020, 07:29:24 PM »

It would be amazing if the HRC would come out with an endorsement of Lindsay Graham.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #153 on: September 17, 2020, 08:07:21 AM »

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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #154 on: September 17, 2020, 09:33:34 AM »



I never thought it would get to the point where I feel more comfortable saying that an Arizona Senate seat would flip... in favor of Democrats than the GOP will hold onto a senate seat in SC.
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #155 on: September 17, 2020, 01:56:44 PM »

I still think Graham hangs on, maybe as close as 1-2 percentage points, but I would not be that shocked to see him lose. He's sold his soul to the party of Trump, and a lot of moderate Republicans along the coast are going to flip to Harrison like they flipped to Joe Cunningham in 2018.
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Rookie Yinzer
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« Reply #156 on: September 17, 2020, 02:09:49 PM »

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Canis
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« Reply #157 on: September 17, 2020, 02:14:34 PM »

I hope Harrison can pull this off but I think this is giving me major MO 2016 and TX 2018 vibes I think Graham will get a scare but still hold on by 2-3% I feel bad about underestimating him early on in the race I thought Graham was safe. The race is still lean Republican to me
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #158 on: September 17, 2020, 02:27:42 PM »




Me thinks they would not be doing this is if their internals were that different than the Q-pac
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GM Team Member and Senator WB
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« Reply #159 on: September 17, 2020, 05:14:26 PM »

I'm moving this from Likely to Lean R.

It's EXTREMELY important to note that the Constitution Party has a candidate (Bill Bledsoe, the Libertarian nominee in 2016 who got nearly 2% of the vote). If Harrison continues to peel away those who think Graham is a RINO, they'd go to Bledsoe. If it was just Graham and Harrison, I think they'd hold their nose for Graham.
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« Reply #160 on: September 17, 2020, 05:25:11 PM »

Does anyone know how James Smith did in each Congressional District?

Someone I know says internal polling they’ve done in SC-02 has Jaime way ahead and I want to compare from 2018.
DRA has the data for each dist:
01: 52.0-47.8 McMaster
02: 54.1-45.8 McMaster
03: 66.5-33.3 McMaster
04: 58.7-41.1 McMaster
05: 56.9-43.0 McMaster
06: 70.0-29.9 Smith
07: 57.2-42.7 McMaster

Statewide: 54.0-45.9 McMaster

02 seems to be a good indicator of the state as a whole, if not a little to the right of it. It was 62.9-34.2 for 2016 Sen (Statewide: 60.6-36.9) and 56.4-38.5 in 2016 Pres (Statewide: 54.9-40.7)

If Harrison is ahead there, it's over, especially with trends in the GSP area. I'm still not holding my breath though.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #161 on: September 17, 2020, 05:55:55 PM »

I hope Harrison can pull this off but I think this is giving me major MO 2016 and TX 2018 vibes I think Graham will get a scare but still hold on by 2-3% I feel bad about underestimating him early on in the race I thought Graham was safe. The race is still lean Republican to me

I agree, a Dem winning statewide in SC is still unproven and the state doesn't really look like the kinds of states swinging heavily to Biden. We'd need to see a serious anti-Lindsay sentiment for Graham to cross the finish line.
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walleye26
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« Reply #162 on: September 17, 2020, 09:09:42 PM »

Let’s say hypothetically that Jaime does win. Graham won Charleston County by 4 points in 2014, and he is going to lose it this time. So what other counties would Harrison win in a hypothetical 50-48 win? York? Beaufort?
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #163 on: September 17, 2020, 09:12:12 PM »

Hmm...I wonder who made a thread 2 months back making an argument that SC-Sen would be competative.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #164 on: September 17, 2020, 09:25:38 PM »

Let’s say hypothetically that Jaime does win. Graham won Charleston County by 4 points in 2014, and he is going to lose it this time. So what other counties would Harrison win in a hypothetical 50-48 win? York? Beaufort?

Here is my (possibly inaccurate) guess of how a Dem win would look like, based off an even swing from the 2018 Governor election



To be honest other than the tentacle going north, a Dem win would also be a very aesthetically pleasing map. Bonus if McCormick county stayed Republican
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« Reply #165 on: September 18, 2020, 03:47:50 PM »

maybe we can have suburban #resistance moms donate their money to Harrison instead of McGrath since Harrison has like, a 5% chance compared to her 0.05% chance?
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Crane
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« Reply #166 on: September 18, 2020, 06:32:04 PM »

maybe we can have suburban #resistance moms donate their money to Harrison instead of McGrath since Harrison has like, a 5% chance compared to her 0.05% chance?

I like this idea.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #167 on: September 18, 2020, 08:49:35 PM »

Harrison posted that they were up to $2M raised in <48 hours
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #168 on: September 18, 2020, 11:30:04 PM »

RIP Jaime Harrison upset chances.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #169 on: September 18, 2020, 11:47:26 PM »

RIP Harrison's chances, I liked him
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« Reply #170 on: September 18, 2020, 11:51:10 PM »


I think people are being too pessimistic for Harrison, it's wasn't like the supreme Court just disappeared as an issue.
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ctrepublican512
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« Reply #171 on: September 19, 2020, 01:42:39 AM »


Lindsey looking like a flip flop is going to have a more profound impact than there being a SC vacancy alone
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #172 on: September 19, 2020, 10:39:45 AM »


Lindsey looking like a flip flop is going to have a more profound impact than there being a SC vacancy alone

Anyone who cares about Graham's flip-flopping is already voting for Harrison.
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Stranger in a strange land
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« Reply #173 on: September 19, 2020, 10:43:52 AM »

Also, Graham is the chair of the judiciary committee, so he'll be forced to take time off the campaign trail, even if they rush the confirmation, and the ads about his hypocrisy practically write themselves.
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7,052,770
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« Reply #174 on: September 19, 2020, 12:18:04 PM »


Lindsey looking like a flip flop is going to have a more profound impact than there being a SC vacancy alone

Anyone who cares about Graham's flip-flopping is already voting for Harrison.

I don't think this is true. There are a lot of smarmy "swing voters" who consider themselves above petty partisan bickering who may vote en masse for Harrison now. Probably not enough to swing the race, but every little bit helps.
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