Final House Result

[Person Man]

What do you think it will be?

[Frenchrepublican]

The NYT Forecast gives democrats a likely 223/212 majority.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/178bMAMhdFbzDQYG-JoeC9JnjaelSbQZUBS5mvTrTf18/htmlview#gid=0

[Torie]

Late votes in many places seem more Pub than anticipated, particularly in CA, where they used to be heavily skewed Dem. That the Dems came so close to losing the House is way out there on the bell curve. There was probably about a 5% chance that the Pubs would so so well.

[Mr.Phips]

Late votes in many places seem more Pub than anticipated, particularly in CA, where they used to be heavily skewed Dem. That the Dems came so close to losing the House is way out there on the bell curve. There was probably about a 5% chance that the Pubs would so so well.

It’s almost like Democrats already had half of the 2022 midterm wave against them two years early.  Looking at the results below the Presidential race (Senate, House, and state legislatures), they lost pretty much everything that wasn’t nailed down. 

Has their ever been a Presidential election where the victor’s party headed such a losing ticket?  The closest I’ve come up with was Woodrow Wilson in 1916.

[Torie]

Late votes in many places seem more Pub than anticipated, particularly in CA, where they used to be heavily skewed Dem. That the Dems came so close to losing the House is way out there on the bell curve. There was probably about a 5% chance that the Pubs would so so well.

It’s almost like Democrats already had half of the 2022 midterm wave against them two years early.  Looking at the results below the Presidential race (Senate, House, and state legislatures), they lost pretty much everything that wasn’t nailed down. 

Has their ever been a Presidential election where the victor’s party headed such a losing ticket?  The closest I’ve come up with was Woodrow Wilson in 1916.

How do you define losing? Pub Presidents won all the time while losing the Congress until recent times.

[Mr.Phips]

Late votes in many places seem more Pub than anticipated, particularly in CA, where they used to be heavily skewed Dem. That the Dems came so close to losing the House is way out there on the bell curve. There was probably about a 5% chance that the Pubs would so so well.

It’s almost like Democrats already had half of the 2022 midterm wave against them two years early.  Looking at the results below the Presidential race (Senate, House, and state legislatures), they lost pretty much everything that wasn’t nailed down. 

Has their ever been a Presidential election where the victor’s party headed such a losing ticket?  The closest I’ve come up with was Woodrow Wilson in 1916.

How do you define losing? Pub Presidents won all the time while losing the Congress until recent times.

I mean losing a large number of seats to the point where they nearly lose control of the House when they controlled it.  The Republican Presidents who won without Congress didn’t hold it in the first place.  Here is the most recent example I found where a winning Presidential candidates party lost enough House seats to almost lose the House (Dems only held on with help of third party members):

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1916_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections

[Roll Roons]

It really looks like the only Democratic pickups will be GA-07 and the two redistricted seats in NC. That was something I absolutely did not expect.