Green = Unmeasurable
Just as with Primary Turnout in 2016, the map did an excellent job of predicting overall control of the Senate. That is, just like Primary Turnout in 2016 foretold Trump's victory, Primary Turnout in 2018 foretold Rs keeping the Senate Majority. Just like 2016 primary turnout foretold Trump's victories in states like MI and WI, 2018 primary turnout pointed us to results we sometimes refused to predict but nevertheless got - Bill Nelson lost in Florida, Joe Donnelly lost in Indiana, Claire McCaskill lost in Missouri, and Dean Heller lost in Nevada.
Now, just like in 2016, primary turnout was not a perfect reflection of the night. The 2016 primary map was hilarious because it predicted Clinton carrying WV, LA, and KY. It also predicted that Trump would win VA and NH and that Clinton would win PA. Clearly, no model is perfect, but it got the overall winner right. In 2018, the model was still not perfect, but it got better. Just three errors were made. Ohio, where the GOP ran a very weak candidate, Arizona, where Democrats ran a truly A+-list candidate, and #POPULIST Montana. Clearly, a state's primary turnout was a good barometer for how it would vote for the Senate in 2018.
I look forward to creating similar maps for the President and Senate races in 2020. While not perfect, they certainly give us a good idea of what is about to happen.
