Pomp and Circumstance
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Free Bird
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« Reply #75 on: January 11, 2019, 05:53:47 PM »
« edited: January 11, 2019, 05:58:11 PM by Free Bird »

...well then. Teetering on West Wing levels of map logic here but I'd be damned if I said you didn't catch me off guard!
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vanteran
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« Reply #76 on: January 11, 2019, 06:45:03 PM »

Ojeda's Independent showing would be the second strongest in history, surpassing Ross Perot's margin in 1992 but falling short of Teddy Roosevelt's margin all the way back in 1912.
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morgankingsley
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« Reply #77 on: January 12, 2019, 03:05:43 AM »

Ojeda's Independent showing would be the second strongest in history, surpassing Ross Perot's margin in 1992 but falling short of Teddy Roosevelt's margin all the way back in 1912.

True. In terms of raw vote, it crushes everyone though. Nearly ten more than perot, the next highest, and three times higher than Wallace, the third highest. Though Wallace still keeps his record of being the best electorally (lets be real here, in 1912 and 1860, where the electoral for a typical third parties were higher, in the electoral college, Taft and Douglas respectively were the third parties, or in the case of Douglas, the fourth party)
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alancia
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« Reply #78 on: January 20, 2019, 09:05:58 PM »
« Edited: January 25, 2019, 02:34:43 AM by Alancia »

Aftermath

"There's a real change coming to America... a change where we can start to make some smart decisions, like tuition free university, and a higher minimum wage for all Americans" - President-Elect Klobuchar, November 2020
___________________________________________________________________________________________________

President-Elect Klobuchar during a Transition event, December 2020

As the dust settled, and Amy Klobuchar was declared to be the 50th President of the United States, an anticipatory but cautious mood took over most American citizens. The now President-Elect had taken just under a third of the total popular vote, and lost it by around three million votes. This left Klobuchar without a clear mandate for her Presidency, and as a result she hoped to meet with President Pompeo in order to establish some degree of legitimacy.

The meeting between the President and the President-elect took place on November 5th in the White House. The most significant event coming out of this meeting was a joint statement by the two politicians, in where they declared the intention to end the era of political chaos in the United States once and for all.

Though some states, like Arizona, still had pending recounts in the Presidential race, both candidates manifested that they would not dispute the results of any of them. Despite a media coverage full of apparent uncertainty, the recounts in several states did nothing but change the number of popular votes by a thousand or so.

With the Republicans taking control of the House, and Democrats hoping for a win in Georgia with Abrams and an upset win in Louisiana for Edwards in order to have control of the Senate with an O'Rourke tiebreaker, this was needed for Klobuchar. In early January,  she announced that the National Council for the American Worker, a Trump-created agency, will be given a cabinet position similar to the US Trade Representative.

Klobuchar also faced pressure from Richard Ojeda, who had taken a significant portion of the vote from the Minnesota Senator. Ojeda pushed the President-elect from the left, and threatened to convert his independent run into a coherent political party and movement. This was particulary dangerous to the Democrats, who despite winning had lost several states (Notably in the Rust Belt) to the former State Senator.

This was added to the fact that, regardless of the Pompeo-Klobuchar meeting, many conservatives and right-wing groups viewed Klobuchar as an illegitimate President, and showed the facts that Pompeo won the Popular Vote and that Republicans had taken control of the House as proof of her 'unlawfulness' as President of the United States. Parallel to this, a CNN poll after the election showed an increase of support for abolishing the Electoral College, from both major parties.

This meant that the President-elect faced pressure from both the Right and Left as the January 2021 inauguration came closer, but despite this her cabinet already began to take shape; which included defeated Senator Doug Jones for Attorney General, Shaheen for Education, Peters for Veteran's Affairs, and Blanche Lincoln for Health and Human Services.

The pressure upon Klobuchar intensified after the results of the runoff elections in Georgia and Louisiana, in which both Edwards and Abrams were defeated in relatively narrow margins. Nevertheless, this meant that the GOP controlled the Senate 52 to 48 (Counting the two Independents for the Democrats), though the Democratic party had a net gain of one compared to the 2018 results.

Georgia Runoff (December 1st): Perdue: 50.92% /// Abrams: 49.08%

Louisiana Runoff (December 8th): Cassidy: 51.45% /// Edwards: 48.55%

Still, as January 20th 2021 neared, the mood of cautious optimism still remained for most of the American people. Just over fifty four percent of US Citizens approved of the President-elect, with many undecided, and it was left for Senator Klobuchar to make her inauguration ceremony and speech a maker of unity for the United States after the turbulence of the last four years.
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alancia
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« Reply #79 on: January 20, 2019, 09:10:59 PM »

...well then. Teetering on West Wing levels of map logic here but I'd be damned if I said you didn't catch me off guard!

Ojeda's Independent showing would be the second strongest in history, surpassing Ross Perot's margin in 1992 but falling short of Teddy Roosevelt's margin all the way back in 1912.

True. In terms of raw vote, it crushes everyone though. Nearly ten more than perot, the next highest, and three times higher than Wallace, the third highest. Though Wallace still keeps his record of being the best electorally (lets be real here, in 1912 and 1860, where the electoral for a typical third parties were higher, in the electoral college, Taft and Douglas respectively were the third parties, or in the case of Douglas, the fourth party)

Thanks for all the comments Smiley ! And yes, Ojeda's showing was very important, and it will show.
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alancia
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« Reply #80 on: January 25, 2019, 04:18:49 AM »
« Edited: January 25, 2019, 05:26:10 AM by Alancia »


117th United States Congress

In Session from January 3rd, 2021 to January 3rd, 2023


United States Senate


Leadership

President of the Senate: Rob Portman (R-OH) (Until January 20th, 2021); Beto O'Rourke (D-TX)

President Pro Tempore: Mitch McConnell (R-KY)

President Pro Tempore emeritus: Pat Leahy (D-VT)

Majority Leader: Mitch McConnell (R-KY)

Minority Leader: Chuck Schumer (D-NY)

Majority Whip: John Thune (R-SD)

Minority Whip: Ron Wyden (D-OR)

Membership

State, by seniority

Alabama: Richard Shelby (R) ; Bradley Byrne (R)

Alaska: Lisa Murkowski (R) ; Dan Sullivan (R)

Arizona: Kyrsten Sinema (D) ; Ruben Gallego (D)

Arkansas: John Boozman (R) ; Tom Cotton (R)

California: Dianne Feinstein (D) ; Kamala Harris (D)

Colorado: Michael Bennet (D) ; John Hickenlooper (D)

Connecticut: Richard Blumenthal (D) ; Chris Murphy (D)

Delaware: Tom Carper (D)  ; Chris Coons (D)

Florida: Rick Scott (R) ; Carlos Lopez-Cantera (R)
 [1]

[1]
Appointed by Governor DeSantis in order to fill the vacancy left by State Secretary Rubio, December 2019.

Georgia: Johny Isakson (R) ; David Perdue (R)

Hawaii: Brian Schatz (D) ; Mazie Hirono (D)

Idaho: Mike Crapo (R) ; Mike Simpson (R)

Illinois: Dick Durbin (D) ; Tammy Duckworth (D)

Indiana: Todd Young (R) ; Mike Braun (R)

Iowa: Joni Ernst (R) ; Pat Grassley (R) [2]

[2]
Appointed by Governor Reynolds in order to fill the vacancy left by President Grassley, November 2019.

Kansas: Jerry Moran (R) ; Jeff Colyer (R)

Kentucky: Mitch McConnell (R) ; Rand Paul (R)

Louisiana: Bill Cassidy (R) ; John Kennedy (R)

Maine: Susan Collins (R) ; Angus King (I)

Maryland: Ben Cardin (D) ; Chris van Hollen (D)

Massachusetts: Elizabeth Warren (D) ; Seth Moulton (D)

Michigan: Debbie Stabenow (D) ; John James (R)

Minnesota: Amy Klobuchar (D) [3] ; Tina Smith (D)

[3]
Vacated office on January 2021 in order to become President of the United States. Replaced by Peggy Flanagan (D).

Mississippi: Roger Wicker (R) ; Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)

Missouri: Roy Blunt (R) ; Josh Hawley (R)

Montana: Jon Tester (D) ; Steve Bullock (D)

Nebraska: Deb Fischer (R) ; Jeff Fortenberry (R)

Nevada: Catherine Cortez-Masto (D) ; Jacky Rosen (D)

New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan (D) ; Kelly Ayotte (R)

New Jersey: Bob Menendez (D) ; Cory Booker (D)

New Mexico: Tom Udall (D) ; Martin Heinrich (D)

New York: Chuck Schumer (D) ; Kirsten Gillibrand (D)

North Carolina: Richard Burr (R) ; Josh Stein (D)

North Dakota: John Hoeven (R) ; Kevin Cramer (R)

Ohio: Sherrod Brown (D) ; Steve Chabot (R) [4]

[4]
Appointed by Governor DeWine in order to fill the vacancy left by Vice-President Portman, January 2020.

Oklahoma: James Lankford (R) ; Scott Pruitt (R)

Oregon: Ron Wyden (D) ; Jeff Merkley (D)

Pennsylvania: Bob Casey, Jr. (D) ; Pat Toomey (R)

Rhode Island: Jack Reed (D) ; Sheldon Whitehouse (D)

South Carolina: Lindsey Graham (R) ; Tim Scott (R)

South Dakota: John Thune (R) ; Mike Rounds (R)

Tennessee: Marsha Blackburn (R) ; Bill Haslam (R)

Texas: John Cornyn (R) ; Ted Cruz (R)

Utah: Mike Lee (R) ; Mitt Romney (R)

Vermont: Pat Leahy (D) ; Bernie Sanders (I)

Virginia: Mark Warner (D) [5] ; Tim Kaine (D)

[5]
Vacated office on January 2021 in order to become United States Treasury Secretary. Replaced by Donald McEachin (D).

Washington: Patty Murray (D) ; Maria Cantwell (D)

West Virginia: Joe Manchin (D) ; Shelley Moore-Capito (R)

Wisconsin: Ron Johnson (R) ; Tammy Baldwin (D)

Wyoming: Mike Enzi (R) ; John Barrasso (R)


GOP 52 - DEM 46 + IND 2 -- GOP Majority (+2)

United States House of Representatives


Leadership

Speaker: Kevin McCarthy (R-CA)

Majority Leader: Steve Scalise (R-LA)

Minority Leader: Tim Ryan (D-OH)

Majority Whip: Jim Jordan (R-OH)

Minority Whip: Jim Clyburn (D-SC)

Control

Members

GOP 227 - DEM 208 - GOP Majority (+19)

State Delegations

GOP 31 - DEM 18 - EVEN 1 - GOP Majority (+13)

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alancia
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« Reply #81 on: January 26, 2019, 06:51:14 PM »
« Edited: January 26, 2019, 10:07:03 PM by alancia »

First Year

"One year ago, it seemed that America, our nation, faced a terminal crisis of the soul. We faced an emergency unseen before in our history; our economy falling, our allies distancing themselves from us, and our leaders fighting over what seemed to be the scraps of our country, and our citizens understandably taking out their anger through the nation. Yet, we emerged forwards, not only because we understood that the fundamental spirit of our nation relies on looking at other Americans like brother and sister, understanding that we go through the same struggles that affect our country everyday, but also because our leaders, we, also understood that this same spirit must be the one that guides our country in both times of peace and danger. This is why I congratulate President Pompeo in his service to our nation, and the peaceful transition that he has headed..." - President Klobuchar, Inaugural Address (Excerpt), January 2021
___________________________________________________________________________________________________

President Klobuchar discussing Democratic Party goals in a EMILY's List meeting, July 2021

The inauguration of Amy Jean Klobuchar as the 50th President of the United States was held on January 20th, 2021. Attended by approximately 730,000 people, the event occured on the West Front of the United States Capitol in Washington, D.C.

Chief Justice Roberts administered the Presidential Oath to Klobuchar, just after Beto O'Rourke was also administered the Vice-Presidential Oath of Office. With her inauguration, Amy Klobuchar became the first female and also the first Minnesotan President.

The event was attended by former Presidents Carter, Clinton, Bush, Obama, Trump, Pence, Pelosi and Grassley; and former Vice-Presidents Mondale, Gore, Cheney and Biden; as well as outgoing President and Vice-President Pompeo and Portman.

During her inaugural address, President Klobuchar focused mostly on the struggles that the United States faced during the last year, mostly due to the political, economic and constitutional troubles of 2019 and 2020; but also highlighting promising a new era of consensus.  With a similar play to her midwestern and Minnesotan 2020 campaign image of an open and 'nice' President that would guide the United States away from the dilemmas of the past four years, Klobuchar hoped to distance herself from presidents past, and promised a 'time of healing' for the country.

The new President also centered on her promises of economic and social justice, connecting the events that had happened during 2019 (Such as the Los Angeles Riots and the Cleveland Occupation) with a new focus on progressive policies that would 'enhance the prosperity of every hard-working American', in the President's words. Klobuchar also made clear a focus in restoring America's standing with the other nations of the world, especially Europe.

With her Presidency officially starting, Klobuchar began to work on her agenda. Despite a Republican-controlled Congress, Klobuchar's cabinet was mostly confirmed by the Senate in around a month. The most important exception was Raul Grijalva, Klobuchar's nominee for Labor secretary, rejected by the U.S Senate on a partisan 52-48 vote for being 'too' liberal, according to Republicans. Grijalva was replaced by Rep. Joseph Morelle, who was confirmed on a 56-44 vote.

Most of Klobuchar's work during 2021 centered on Labor. The President, together with Secretary Morelle and Richard Cordray - who was confirmed as the first Director of the President's American Worker Council - drafted a plan similar to the Minimum Wage Fairness Act of 2013. This new act, introduced by Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA) and named the Federal Fair Wage Act (FFWA), the bill would increase the federal minimum wage to 10.15 dollars a hour.

The FFWA was immediately opposed by most Republicans in the House and Senate. However, the Democrats began pursuing the more moderate Republicans in the upper chamber, such as Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, in order to pass the bill. In debate, however, the FFWA was filibustered by Senators Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) and Tom Cotton (R-AR) in separate but marathonic speeches, with Blackburn's filibuster reaching up to six hours and fifteen minutes.

Nevertheless, the Senate narrowly voted for cloture (60-40) on the bill, and it was passed on a 50-50 vote, with Senators Collins and Murkowski (R-AK) voting in favor; and Vice-President O'Rourke breaking the tie.

In the House, the FFWA faced more opposition from Republicans. In an effort to save the bill, it was amended so that it would involve an increase of the Federal Minimum Wage to 9.50 dollars a hour (down from the 10.15 of the Senate version), increasing 0.45 cents every year until 2026; which was a similar policy to Missouri's minimum wage increase passed in 2018.

In the House vote, the FFWA passed the chamber by a 221-214 vote (All Democrats and 13 Republicans voting in favor), and the Senate finally passing the final version of the bill with a 51-49 vote (Senator Hawley of Missouri joining Murkowski and Collins), being signed by President Klobuchar in a ceremony on September of 2021. The FFWA had a warm welcome from a majority of Americans, with polling showing that a majority had a favorable opinion of the new law. Hawley did face backlash from conservative Republicans, but it was nevertheless welcomed in his state as well.

In a similar manner, President Klobuchar with Senator Sanders (I-VT) and other Democratic lawmakers also tried to push a bill establishing a single-payer healthcare system in the United States, under the United States Universal Healthcare Act (USUHA, 'Medicare for All') but in difference to the FFWA, it was never debated by the Republicans in the Senate, though it did become a rallying point for Democratic campaigns.

However, the other focus point of Klobuchar's first year in office was the Supreme Court. On January 21st of 2021, one day after the new President was inaugurated, Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg announced her retirement. Ginsburg, which had been on the Supreme Court since 1993 and faced an ailing health since late 2018, had become a liberal icon in the country. Thus, it was expected for President Klobuchar to pick a similar judge - and woman - to fill her position.

In the end, Klobuchar settled for Patricia Ann Millett, a judge for the D.C Court of Appeals. Appointed by Obama, mentioned as a potential replacement for Justice Scalia and born in 1963, she was picked as the perfect replacement for Ginsburg. Immediately, her confirmation was opposed by Senate Republicans, most notably Majority Leader McConnell.

Millett's confirmation process quickly became a partisan fight similar to Brett Kavanaugh's in 2018, and the 2019 Political Crisis. Through much of 2021, as McConnell refused to consider the SCOTUS nomination and was attacked by Democrats ('You can't hold a seat empty forever') and even faced some pressure from his own party. Despite all of this, McConnell held on, and as the year closed the Senate seat once held by Ginsburg remained empty.

As for the President herself, Amy Klobuchar closed 2021 with an average approval rating of around 51%, a dissaproval of 43%, with 6% undecided - according to Gallup.

Klobuchar Cabinet

President of the United States: Amy J. Klobuchar

Vice-President of the United States: Robert F. O'Rourke

Secretary of State: Edward J. Markey

Secretary of Treasury: Mark R. Warner

Secretary of Defense: William H. McRaven

Attorney General: Gordon D. Jones

Secretary of Interior: Mark L. Pryor

Secretary of Agriculture: Collin C. Peterson

Secretary of Commerce: Diana L. DeGette

Secretary of Labor: Joseph D. Morelle

Secretary of Health and Human Services: Blanche M. Lincoln

Secretary of Housing and Urban Development: G.K Butterfield

Secretary of Energy: Thomas C. O'Halleran

Secretary of Education: Cynthia J. Shaheen

Secretary of Veterans' Affairs: Gary C. Peters

Secretary of Homeland Security: Susan E. Rice

Cabinet-level officials:

Chief of Staff: Brigit Helgen

United States Trade Representative: Jeffrey D. Zients

Director of National Intelligence: Sean P. Maloney

Ambassador to the United Nations: Thomas R. Suozzi

Director of the OMB: Mark B. Dayton

Director of the CIA: James G. Stavridis

Administrator of the EPA: Deborah A. Dingell

Administrator of the Small Business Administration: Mia Love

Director of the NCAW: Richard A. Cordray

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alancia
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« Reply #82 on: January 27, 2019, 06:39:17 AM »

Election Times

"Go out and vote for Peggy this November so we can continue this project of restoring peace and justice back to our country and people! A fair healthcare system, a higher minimum wage for our workers, and reforming our political system are what we must strive for, and Peggy is all about that!" - President Klobuchar, Duluth campaign rally, October 2021
___________________________________________________________________________________________________

Senator Peggy Flanagan (D-MN) campaigns with Governor Walz (D-MN) in Itasca County, October 2021

Another focus of 2021 was the off-year elections held in that year. The Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial elections, which Democrats had both won in 2017, were added by two more: Senate special elections also in Virginia and in Minnesota. The first was caused by the departure of Senator Warner to become Klobuchar's Treasury Secretary, and the special election in Minnesota was caused by the President herself, who had to naturally vacate her seat.

In Virginia, Warner was replaced by Donald McEachin, the representative for Virginia's 4th Congressional District. McEachin cultivated a voting record similar to Warner's with a focus on his support for the FFWA and being a pusher for Sanders' Medicare bill, citing Virginia's expansion of Medicare in 2018, and similar efforts in other states.

His opponent was Barbara Comstock, a former congresswoman and Secretary of Education under President Pompeo. In the election, Comstock focused on a message of congressional reform and her work as Education Secretary (promoting 'school choice' policies). A major event in the Virginia campaign was when she was asked by a reporter if she would support McConnell's policies regarding the nomination of Millett, and answered (in a reluctant tone) that she would. This caused a backlash against her campaign from both sides, as she also sounded unenthusiastic about it.

A significant third party candidate was Dave DeHerder, a former campaign manager for George W. Bush in 2004 and businessman, running under the Save America Movement ticket. DeHerder, similar to McMullin's Presidential campaign in 2020, focused on a centrist platform, with a centerpiece in overcoming the partisan atmosphere in Washington. DeHerder was famously endorsed by former President Bush, which boosted his momentum.

On election day, McEachin defeated Comstock by a 1.6% margin. Narrow enough, but it signified a vital hold for the Democrats in the Senate. DeHerder also took a notable 7.2% of the vote, representing over 230,000 ballots.



The Virginia gubernatorial held a similar story. Governor Northam, who had remaind relatively popular over the course of the tumultuous 2017-2021 years, ran for re-election on a platform that shined upon his actions as Virginia Governor. This included making Virginia one of the states that weathered the 2019-20 Recession the best, and his establishment of a public-health insurance option in the state.

He was opposed by Tom Garrett which was also a former representative for Virginia's 5th Congressional District, retiring in 2018 after announcing his alcoholism. Recovered, he decided to run in Virginia's gubernatorial election, defeating several opponents in the Republican primary, including Denver Riggleman, the incumbent representative for VA-5.

In the election, Garrett focused on an 'outsider' campaign in a state that, despite being close to D.C and doing better that most through these years, did experience several 'dissatisfied' riots and protests through 2019 and 2020. He also emphasized his military service, but otherwise ran on a mainstream Republican platform, centered on lower taxes and a 'Safer Virginia' for citizens and business owners.

Northam emerged victorious over Garrett with a 1.4 point margin, a closer that expected victory. There was no major SAM or third party candidate, and it was theorized that the DenHerder vote was split somewhat more in favor of the incumbent Governor, explaining his victory.



Further north, in New Jersey, a different story set in. Incumbent Governor Phil Murphy ran for re-election as a Democrat; in one of the states that fared the worst through the Pelosi weeks. Already facing some scandals before 2019, Murphy was also criticized for his handling of the Camden riots in October 2019, and the blockage of Holland Tunnel in the New York Metropolitan Area - together with Governor Cuomo. Going into the election, Murphy had an approval rating of 38%, one of the lowest in the nation, but Phil gambled in that polarization and his state's partisan lean may drag him over the top.

He fared a familiar face for unpopular New Jersey incumbents: Bob Hugin. Fresh from his 2018 loss against Senator Menendez, Hugin announced in early 2020 that he was considering a run against Murphy, finally confirming it in February of 2021. Easily defeating other minor Republicans in the primary, and choosing State Senator Addiego as his running mate, Hugin ran on a similar platform as in 2018: supporting of Democratic policies such as the FFWA and instead focusing on a 'change' platform against the political class of his state.

While there was some doubt concerning the fact that Hugin, a former pharma executive, could win the votes of 'average' New Jerseyans, this were quickly turned by his campaign. While he struggled on the first weeks of the campaign due to the Democratic lean of his state, Bob Hugin quickly began moving upwards in polling, as Murphy suffered over a report that showed that the state had no significant recovery yet from the 2019-20 crisis.

Hugin was further helped by Troy Knight-Napper, a Green Party activist and politician that was a former candidate for the New Jersey Legislature. Napper performed the best in the urban areas of his state, and focused mostly on the aforementioned mismanagement that Phil Murphy was accused of during the 2019 Crisis. Napper, like Hugin, also started to perform well towards the end of the campaign, especially as Richard Ojeda began campaigning for him in the state.

On November 2nd, Murphy was defeated by Hugin by a large margin of 8.4%. The governor-elected performed well through most of state, and Knight-Napper also received a very notable 13.5% of the vote, a factor in Murphy's loss. This represented a gain for the Republicans, which now held 28 governorships.



Finally, there was the Minnesota special Senate election. As Amy Klobuchar vacated her seat in order to become President, she was replaced by Peggy Flanagan, the Lieutenant Governor under Walz. In the Senate, Flanagan established a progressive voting record, arguing in favor of both the FFWA, Millett's nomination to the Supreme Court, and the 'Medicare for All' bill - the latter especially vigorously. The new Senator was also helped in her campaign by President Klobuchar, who campaigned in order to keep her seat with the Democrats.

In the Republican primary, there were three main candidates: former Governor Tim Pawlenty, Congressman Pete Stauber of Minnesota's 8th Congressional District, and former Representative and 2020 Senate Candidate Michele Bachmann. The competitive primary ended once again in a victory for Bachmann who was endorsed by former President Trump - who was still popular in a somewhat vengeful Republican base - taking 46% of the vote in it.

The main Senate campaign was distinct from the other ones. Bachmann, fresh from her Trump endorsement, ran an 'inspired' campaign; running on a nationalist platform that contrasted sharply with Flanagan's progressive one. A major news story in the race were the allegations that the Bachmann campaign was helping indirectly distributing pamphlets in favor of Cam Gordon, the Green Party candidate.

Gordon, one of the few elected Green politicians, hailed from the Twin Cities area, and received significant support there, in spite of Flanagan's progressiveness. The incumbent Senator tried to hammer Bachmann on Trump's unpopularity, while the Republican candidate focused on the rural parts of the North Star State, in a sort of 'area war'.

The official results were shocking to most Democrats; despite tight polling late on the campaign, Flanagan was defeated by a margin of 6.7 points. Gordon also received 8.9% of the vote, and Democrats began blaming him for Flanagan's loss. This was also a defeat for President Klobuchar, who now had to deal with a 53-47 Republican Senate majority.



The results of the 2021 Elections were generally considered favorable to the GOP, who despite losing narrowly in Virginia, picked up vital wins in Minnesota and New Jersey, and renewed the hopes of Republicans for the 2022 midterms.

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alancia
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« Reply #83 on: January 27, 2019, 07:57:11 AM »

I was just informed that Virginia doesnt re-elect its governors. I'll correct this once I wake up from my morning nap but the results stand - the Democratic candidate wins.
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Cold War Liberal
KennedyWannabe99
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« Reply #84 on: January 27, 2019, 11:48:55 AM »

I was just informed that Virginia doesnt re-elect its governors. I'll correct this once I wake up from my morning nap but the results stand - the Democratic candidate wins.
Gov. Justin Fairfax plz
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #85 on: January 27, 2019, 11:56:32 AM »

The Minnesota map and results are bad.
Cool TL though
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President of the civil service full of trans activists
Peebs
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« Reply #86 on: January 27, 2019, 01:32:47 PM »

I was just informed that Virginia doesnt re-elect its governors. I'll correct this once I wake up from my morning nap but the results stand - the Democratic candidate wins.
Gov. Justin Fairfax plz
I'd prefer Danica Roem but I can live with Governor Fairfax too.
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alancia
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« Reply #87 on: January 27, 2019, 04:19:02 PM »

I was just informed that Virginia doesnt re-elect its governors. I'll correct this once I wake up from my morning nap but the results stand - the Democratic candidate wins.
Gov. Justin Fairfax plz
I'd prefer Danica Roem but I can live with Governor Fairfax too.

Corrected Virginia results Wink

Turnout is out due to the joint Senate and Gov. elections, and Fairfax wins with a similar strategy to Northam's 'win' lol.

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MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
Kalwejt
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« Reply #88 on: January 27, 2019, 05:09:04 PM »

Great work, alancia Smiley
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alancia
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« Reply #89 on: January 27, 2019, 05:18:21 PM »


Thanks Grin
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alancia
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« Reply #90 on: January 29, 2019, 05:51:33 AM »

Stability

"Stability back in government again, peace, hope in America's future; this isn't just words that our administration uses. Its something we are achieving." - Vice-President O'Rourke, Face the Nation (Interview), August 2022
___________________________________________________________________________________________________

Patrica Ann Millett, Supreme Court Nominee, shortly before her confirmation hearings; June 2022

For the first half of 2022, most of the political world's attention was focused on the Millett nomination. The midterms, of course, were the other 'big' story, but the two are deeply intertwined.

As mentioned, the year opened with Ruth Bader Ginsburg's seat vacant, as it was since her retirement in May of 2021. The Republican Senate Leader, Mitch McConnell, had kept it empty on purpose; using a similar strategy used by his party during 2016, after the death of conservative Justice Antonin Scalia.

However, there were some key differences. First and foremost, it wasn't 2016, as the next presidential election (November of 2024) was just under two years from occurring. The midterms were similar though, and McConnell used them as a 'referendum' on the vacant Supreme Court seat, using the precedent that 'some' Democrats talked about the 2018 midterms in a similar way (When the nomination of Brett Kavanaugh was a hot and controversial issue)

Democrats, in the Senate and otherwise, rebuked this; saying that the Kavanaugh nomination was still pushed through by McConnell's party, and precedent actually established that he had to hold a confirmation hearing for Millett. This continued through most of the early year.

The second issue was the people. While in 2016 the GOP rested on the idea that most voters (Especially independents) wouldn't care about the vacant SCOTUS seat, and by consequence not turn against the Senate Republicans, it was a different case in 2022. The first major difference was the atmosphere in the American public, as the crisis of 2019 had turned public opinion strongly against 'partisan maneuvering', especially moderates and independents. The memories of having four presidents in less than one year were still present, after all.

The second factor would have made no difference in 2016, but combined with the public opinion factor it was made a relatively minor yet lingering presence in the first half of 2022. Ginsburg was a liberal and cultural icon, like Scalia was for Republicans, and her retirement meant the she could potentially be replaced by another conservative judge. Democrats, determined to not let this happen, organized major marches in favor of Millett.

As said before, this wouldn't have made much difference six years ago, as Democrats also marched in favor of Merrick Garland, President Obama's nominee for Antonin Scalia's seat. However, this now made waves among most of the independent voters, and a Pew Research poll in May of 2022 showed a majority (not plurality) of them agreeing that the Senate had to hold a confirmation hearing for Millett.

McConnell, who had bragged in 2016 about telling President Obama that he won't fill the Supreme Court held by Scalia, found himself faltering. After over one year of vacancy, many Republican lawmakers were worried that their Congressional majority would no longer exist after 2022 - a Gallup poll through May 24-27 showed Democrats having a three point lead in the generic ballot, enough to at least flip the House of Representatives.

Not wanting to lose his Senate leadership, McConnell finally allowed a confirmation hearing and subsequent vote on Millett's nomination; while he and Majority Whip Thune worked so that the Republican controlled Senate rejected it.

Senators Collins (R-ME) and Romney (R-UT), which had built a reputation as 'mavericks' in the Senate, came out in support of Millett's nomination, but this was still enough for the Senate to reject her. However, in late June, Senator Murkowski of Alaska (who was locked in a tough primary fight) also announced she supported Patricia Millett for the Supreme Court. She was confirmed on July 1st, with a tie-breaker from VP O'Rourke, and Murkowski's decision to support Klobuchar's nominee is viewed as the major reason she lost her party's nomination for the 2022 Alaska Senate election.

Going to Klobuchar, the President focused most of her time on foreign affairs. This focused mostly on visits to Europe - most notably with Prime Minister Corbyn and President Wauquiez of France - in order to strengthen the link between the U.S and the European Union after the 2019-20 crisis, which also had major repercussions on the Old Continent. Klobuchar also visited Korea, mostly to consult with the South Korean government in order to increase U.S military presence on the peninsula after renewed threats by North Korea - the hermit nation had taken advantage of the weakened position the United States had since 2019, and amped its rhetoric.

On the domestic front, apart from the Supreme Court issue, things were looking upwards. The economy continued its recovery, mostly from the 'stability' and rebound, but also from some of the administration's actions like the trade deal with post-Brexit Britain are also viewed as contributing factors to this recovery.

Gallup Polling, July 2022:

Klobuchar Approval Rating: Approve 51%, Dissaprove 45% , Unsure 4%

Congressional Generic Ballot: Republicans 46%, Democrats 44%, Unsure 10%
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« Reply #91 on: January 29, 2019, 08:14:34 PM »
« Edited: January 30, 2019, 01:20:25 AM by alancia »

2022 Governor races polling

As of August 1st, 2022
___________________________________________________________________________________________________

Governor's Map

Safe // Likely // Leaning // Tossup // Leaning // Likely // Safe

Polling Averages

Maine

Gov. Janet Mills (D) - 48%

State Sen. Scott Cyrway (R) - 44%

Other - 4%

Undecided - 4%

Rating: LEAN D

New Hampshire

Gov. Chris Sununu (R) - 50%

State Rep. Linda Tanner (D) - 45%

Other - 2%

Undecided - 3%

Rating: LEAN R

Vermont

Gov. Phil Scott (R) - 56%

State Sen. Anthony Pollina (P) - 35%

Other - 5%

Undecided - 4%

Rating: SAFE R

Massachusetts

Gov. Charlie Baker (R) - 68%

Mr. Jeff Bussgang  (D) - 25%

Other - 3%

Undecided - 6%

Rating: SAFE R

Rhode Island

State Sen. Dennis Algiere (R) - 44%

State Sen. Erin Lynch (D) - 44%

Mr. Kevin Hagan (M-SAM) - 7%

Other - 1%

Undecided - 4%

Rating: TOSSUP

Connecticut

Gov. Ned Lamont (D) - 46%

Mr. Bob Stefanowski (R) - 43%

Other - 3%

Undecided - 8%

Rating: TOSSUP

New York

Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) - 41%

Rep. Sue Serino (R) - 38%

Ms. Cynthia Nixon (WFP) - 12%

Other - 3%

Undecided - 6%

Rating: TOSSUP

Pennsylvania

Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D) - 46%

State Sen. Jake Corman (R) - 45%

Other - 4%

Undecided - 5%

Rating: TOSSUP

Maryland

Fmr. Rep. John Delaney (D) - 48%

Lt. Gov. Boyd Rutherford (R) - 45%

Other - 2%

Undecided - 4%

Rating: TOSSUP

Ohio

Lt. Gov. John Husted (R) - 49%

Fmr. State Sen. Joe Schiavoni (D) - 43%

Other - 3%

Undecided - 5%

Rating: LEAN R

Michigan

State Sen. Patrick Colbeck (R) - 50%

Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) - 41%

Other - 4%

Undecided - 5%

Rating: LEAN R

South Carolina

Gov. Henry McMaster (R) - 56%

Mayor Steve Benjamin  (D) - 38%

Other - 2%

Undecided - 4%

Rating: SAFE R

Georgia

Gov. Brian Kemp (R) - 49%

Fmr. Att. Gen. Sally Yates (D) - 44%

Other - 2%

Undecided - 5%

Rating: LEAN R

Florida

Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) - 50%

State Sen. Janet Cruz (D) - 44%

Other - 1%

Undecided - 5%

Rating: TOSSUP

Alabama

Gov. Kay Ivey (R) - 62%

Mr. Jason Fischer  (D) - 30%

Other - 3%

Undecided - 5%

Rating: SAFE R

Tennessee

Gov. Bill Lee (R) - 61%

Mayor David Briley  (D) - 28%

Other - 4%

Undecided - 7%

Rating: SAFE R

Arkansas

State Sen. Lance Eads (R) - 57%

Mayor Lioneld Jordan (D) - 34%

Other - 3%

Undecided - 6%

Rating: SAFE R

Illinois

Gov. J.B Pritzker (D) - 54%

State Sen. Dave Fowler (R) - 40%

Other - 3%

Undecided - 3%

Rating: SAFE D

Wisconsin

Fmr. Gov. Scott Walker (R) - 46%

Gov. Tony Evers (D) - 45%

Other - 3%

Undecided - 6%

Rating: TOSSUP

Iowa

Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) - 49%

Fmr. Rep. Abby Finkenauer (D) - 40%

Other - 4%

Undecided - 7%

Rating: LIKELY R

Minnesota

Gov. Tim Walz (D) - 46%

Rep. Pete Stauber (R) - 39%

Other - 6%

Undecided - 9%

Rating: LEAN D

Texas

Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R) - 51%

Fmr. Rep. Pete Gallego (D) - 39%

Other - 4%

Undecided - 6%

Rating: SAFE R

Oklahoma

Gov. Kevin Stitt (R) - 59%

Fmr. Rep. Kendra Horn (D) - 33%

Other - 1%

Undecided - 7%

Rating: SAFE R

Kansas

State Sen. Susan Wagle (R) - 43%

Gov. Laura Kelly (D) - 42%

Mr. Greg Orman (I-SAM) - 5%

Other - 2%

Undecided - 8%

Rating: TOSSUP

Nebraska

Lt. Gov. Mike Foley (R) - 56%

Fmr. State Leg. Steve Lathrop (D) - 34%

Other - 5%

Undecided - 5%

Rating: SAFE R

South Dakota

Gov. Kristi Noem (R) - 51%

State Sen. Red Dawn Foster (D) - 38%

Other - 4%

Undecided - 7%

Rating: SAFE R

New Mexico

Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) - 47%

State Rep. Alonzo Baldonado (R) - 37%

Other - 8%

Undecided - 8%

Rating: LIKELY D

Colorado

Gov. Jared Polis (D) - 48%

Fmr. Sen. Cory Gardner (R) - 39%

Other - 4%

Undecided - 9%

Rating: LIKELY D

Wyoming

Gov. Mark Gordon (R) - 64%

Ms. Kristin Mackey (D) - 27%

Other - 3%

Undecided - 6%

Rating: SAFE R

Arizona

Fmr. Sec. State Michele Reagan (R) - 46%

Fmr. Mayor Phil Gordon (D) - 41%

Other - 5%

Undecided - 8%

Rating: LEAN R

Idaho

Gov. Brad Little (R) - 61%

Mr. Peter Dill (D) - 25%

Other - 9%

Undecided - 5%

Rating: SAFE R

Hawaii

Lt. Gov. Josh Green (D) - 54%

State Sen. Kurt Fevella (R) - 39%

Other - 3%

Undecided - 4%

Rating: SAFE D

California

Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) - 52%

Rep. Young Kim (R) - 41%

Other - 4%

Undecided - 3%

Rating: SAFE D

Nevada

Fmr. Att. Gen. Adam Laxalt (R) - 45%

Gov. Steve Sisolak (D) - 45%

Other - 3%

Undecided - 7%

Rating: TOSSUP

Oregon

State Sen. Sheri Malstrom (D) - 48%

State Rep. Cedric Ross Hayden (R) - 41%

Other - 4%

Undecided - 6%

Rating: LIKELY D

Alaska

Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R) - 49%

Mayor Ethan Berkowitz (D) - 39%

Other - 7%

Undecided - 5%

Rating: LIKELY R
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« Reply #92 on: January 30, 2019, 06:18:30 AM »
« Edited: January 30, 2019, 06:58:09 AM by alancia »

2022 Senate races polling

As of August 1st, 2022
___________________________________________________________________________________________________

Senate Map

Safe // Likely // Leaning // Tossup // Leaning // Likely // Safe

Polling Averages

New Hampshire

Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) - 47%

Fmr. Rep. Frank Guinta (R) - 44%

Other - 4%

Undecided - 5%

Rating: TOSSUP

Vermont

Lt. Gov. David Zuckerman (P) - 39%

State Rep. Bernard Juskiewicz (R) - 29%

State Sen. Becca Balint (D) - 20%

Other - 3%

Undecided - 9%

Rating: LIKELY P

Connecticut

Rep. Jim Himes (D) - 49%

Mayor Mark Boughton (R) - 41%

Other - 2%

Undecided - 8%

Rating: LIKELY D

New York

Sen. Chuck Schumer (D) - 55%

Fmr. Rep. Chris Gibson (R) - 34%

Other - 6%

Undecided - 5%

Rating: SAFE D

Pennsylvania

Sen. Pat Toomey (R) - 47%

Rep. Conor Lamb (D) - 45%

Other - 3%

Undecided - 5%

Rating: TOSSUP

Maryland

Sen. Chris van Hollen (D) - 50%

Gov. Larry Hogan (R) - 40%

Other - 3%

Undecided - 7%

Rating: LIKELY D

North Carolina

Fmr. Gov. Pat McCrory (R) - 46%

Fmr. Sec. Anthony Foxx (D) - 44%

Other - 4%

Undecided - 6%

Rating: TOSSUP

South Carolina

Sen. Tim Scott (R) - 54%

Mr. Bakari Sellers (D) - 32%

Other - 3%

Undecided - 11%

Rating: SAFE R

Georgia

Fmr. Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle (R) - 48%

Rep. Jason Carter (D) - 43%

Other - 2%

Undecided - 7%

Rating: LEAN R

Florida

Sen. Carlos Lopez-Cantera (R) - 46%

Fmr. Rep. Gwen Graham (D) - 44%

Other - 4%

Undecided - 6%

Rating: TOSSUP

Alabama

Rep. Mo Brooks (R) - 78%

Other - 10%

Undecided - 12%

Rating: SAFE R

Kentucky

Sen. Rand Paul (R) - 52%

State Rep. Russell Meyer (D) - 32%

Other - 5%

Undecided - 11%

Rating: SAFE R

Ohio

Fmr. Vice-Pres. Rob Portman (R) - 50%

Rep. Danny O'Connor (D) - 34%

Other - 4%

Undecided - 12%

Rating: SAFE R

Indiana

Sen. Todd Young (R) - 40%

Rep. Greg Pence (R-I) - 38%

Other - 13%

Undecided - 9%

Rating: SAFE R

Illinois

Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D) - 51%

Fmr. Lt. Gov. Evelyn Sanguinetti (R) - 40%

Other - 2%

Undecided - 7%

Rating: SAFE D

Wisconsin

State Sen. Devin LeMahieu (R) - 44%

Rep. Mark Pocan (D) - 44%

Other - 3%

Undecided - 9%

Rating: TOSSUP

Louisiana

Sen. John Kennedy (R) - 45%

Fmr. Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) - 24%

Fmr. Mayor Mitch Landrieu (D) - 20%

Other - 4%

Undecided - 7%

Rating: SAFE R

Arkansas

Sen. John Boozman (R) - 48%

State Sen. Clarke Tucker (D) - 38%

Other - 5%

Undecided - 9%

Rating: SAFE R

Missouri

Sen. Roy Blunt (R) - 52%

State Auditor Nicole Galloway (D) - 35%

Other - 5%

Undecided - 8%

Rating: SAFE R

Iowa

Sen. Pat Grassley (R) - 48%

Fmr. Rep. Cindy Axne (D) - 44%

Other - 3%

Undecided - 5%

Rating: LEAN R

Oklahoma

Sen. James Lankford (R) - 60%

Fmr. Mayor Kyle Lawson (D) - 31%

Other - 5%

Undecided - 8%

Rating: SAFE R

Kansas

Sen. Jerry Moran (R) - 48%

Fmr. Rep. Sharice Davids (D) - 40%

Other - 6%

Undecided - 6%

Rating: LIKELY R

South Dakota

Sen. John Thune (R) - 71%

Fmr. State Sen. Larry Diedrich (SAM) - 22%

Other - 3%

Undecided - 4%

Rating: SAFE R

Colorado

Sen. Michael Bennet (D) - 49%

Fmr. Rep. Scott Tipton (R) - 40%

Other - 4%

Undecided - 7%

Rating: LIKELY D

Arizona

Gov. Doug Ducey (R) - 47%

Sen. Ruben Gallego (D) - 45%

Other - 2%

Undecided - 6%

Rating: TOSSUP

Utah

Sen. Mike Lee (R) - 59%

Fmr. Rep. Ben McAdams (D) - 24%

Mr. Richard Davis (UUP-SAM) - 6%

Other - 3%

Undecided - 7%

Rating: SAFE R

Idaho

Sen. Mike Crapo (R) - 65%

Mr. Austin Whiting (SAM) - 21%

Other - 8%

Undecided - 6%

Rating: SAFE R

Nevada

Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D) - 46%

Fmr. Gov. Brian Sandoval (R) - 45%

Other - 4%

Undecided - 5%

Rating: TOSSUP

Hawaii

Sen. Brian Schatz (D) - 62%

Mr. Ross Munns (R) - 30%

Other - 3%

Undecided - 5%

Rating: SAFE D

California

Sen. Kamala Harris (D) - 54%

Fmr. Mayor Ashley Swearengin (R) - 39%

Undecided - 7%

Rating: SAFE D

Oregon

Sen. Ron Wyden (D) - 51%

Mr. Sam Carpenter (R) - 37%

Other - 4%

Undecided - 8%

Rating: SAFE D

Washington

Sen. Patty Murray (D) - 50%

Fmr. State Sen. Dino Rossi (R) - 35%

Other - 8%

Undecided - 7%

Rating: SAFE D

Alaska

Fmr. Gov. Sarah Palin (R) - 40%

Sen. Lisa Murkowski (I) - 37%

State Sen. Tom Begich (D) - 14%

Other - 5%

Undecided - 4%

Rating: TOSSUP
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« Reply #93 on: January 31, 2019, 12:19:47 AM »

A Hard Fought Campaign

"The next few days will determine if we continue with the policies that have failed Michigan and its people, of if we choose Patrick and forge and secure a future for this state. So go out and vote for Pat next Tuesday and show we can do it!" - Senator James (R-MI), in a Colbeck For Governor rally, November 2022
___________________________________________________________________________________________________

Rep. Greg Pence (R-IN) in a campaign speech in Evansville, Indiana, October 2022.

The 2022 Midterms, the other big political story of the year, included many competitive and closely watched races, both in the Senate and in the Governor levels. Generally, the Republicans were expecting to retain or even expand their majorities, although there were many tossup races that could go either way.

In the Senate, notable races included the Pennsylvania race, where incumbent Republican Pat Toomey was locked in a tough fight with moderate Democrat representative Conor Lamb, even though the year was generally in favor of the Republicans. Lamb was performing strongly in Philadelphia and its suburbs, and taking decent margins in areas which voted for Trump and 2016 and Pompeo in 2020, making the race a tossup.

In Vermont, a third way race ensued between Lt. Governor David Zuckerman, of the left-leaning Progressive Party, was running ahead of his Democratic and Republican rivals, and was widely expected to win after Balint (The Democrat) announced she was suspending her campaign, although  she wasn't dropping out of the race.

In the midwest, Rob Portman - the former Vice-President during the Pompeo administration - was campaigning for a return to his old seat, and was facing Democratic representative Danny O'Connor. Portman was leading widely in every poll, and most rating organizations classified the race as 'safe' for the GOP.

In the state of Wisconsin, a tough race was ensuing between Democratic representative Mark Pocan, from Madison, and State Senator Devin LeMahieu from the eastern part of the state. The race for the seat of the retiring Ron Johnson was widely viewed as a national bellwether for the control of the Senate, as Wisconsin matched the national atmosphere closely in the election cycle.

In Indiana, another notable race between two Republicans ensued. As the DSCC concentrated their efforts on defending their seats and targeting states that the Democrats won in 2020 (Florida, North Carolina), the Hoosier State was left without a Democratic candidate. This left an opening for Greg Pence, the older brother of former President Mike Pence, who ran a campaign against incumbent Todd Young. Pence's campaign including many Trumpist themes, and he was endorsed via Twitter by the former President himself - who had retired to isolation in his Florida resort.

Going to Florida itself, the Senate race in the state was disputed between the incumbent Republican Carlos Lopez-Cantera and Gwen Graham, a former representative and daughter of former Governor and Senator Bob Graham. The Florida race was widely contested, and although there were rumours of former Senator Marco Rubio trying to take back his old seat like Portman, he decided to endorse Cantera. The incumbent had a slight lead through almost every poll, and it was expected for Governor DeSantis (Who was polling better in his re-election campaign) to help the Senator. Still, since it was Florida, the race was widely characterized as a tossup.

In the state of North Carolina, the race was close between Pat McCrory, the former Republican Governor; and Anthony Foxx, the former Secretary of Transportation during the Obama administration. McCrory was targeted by Democrats for his loss against Roy Cooper in the 2016 Governor's race, and his tenure as Governor. The Republican was leading through most polls, but the race was widely considered a tossup.

In the west, the Senate races in Arizona and Nevada were also considered too close to call. Incumbent Democratic senators Cortez Masto and Gallego were facing the former and current Republican governors of their states (respectly) and although Ducey was polling somewhat better in Arizona, a result similar in 2020 where the race was settled in a recount was not off the table.

Meanwhile, in Alaska, former Governor Sarah Palin defeated incumbent Senator Lisa Murkowski, a moderate Republican. Much like in 2010, Murkowski began an independent campaign, and the results were expected to be close between the two.

In the Governor's map, there were three notable races that were covered extensively. In New York, incumbent Governor Andrew Cuomo was in a tough battle for a third term against Republican NY-18 Representative and former State Senator Sue Serino. This was caused by Cynthia Nixon, an actress which primaried Cuomo in 2018, and now was running as the Working Families Party - which had decided not to endorse the Democrats. Nixon was polling strongly, mostly from progressives unhappy with the Cuomo administration, and the incumbent Governor was fighting strongly not to suffer a fate similar to Phil Murphy.

Moving on, another watched race was the Wisconsin gubernatorial, due to similar reasons with the Senate race. Furthermore, the matchup there was the same one as in 2018, as former Governor Scott Walker ran against the incumbent Tony Evers. Polling was tight through all of the campaign, and the state was especially targeted by President Klobuchar and other Democrats who didn't want Wisconsin to go the same way as Michigan - which was trending Republican at a fast pace - with incumbent Governor Whitmer looking at a loss against Patrick Colbeck, a state senator.

The final observed race was the Kansas gubernatorial, where incumbent Democrat Laura Kelly was battling a strong challange from Susan Wagle, the Senate President. Independent Greg Orman, which had ran in the 2018 race and in the 2014 Kansas Senate, also was a candidate this year; and affiliated himself with the Save America Movement, which had presented Senate candidates in the uncontested North Dakota and South Dakota races amongst others.

In general, Republicans were also looking at a slight expansion of their House Majority, although nothing was guaranteed to happen until Election Day. Polling in the days before the election nevertheless showed a favourable forecast for the GOP.

Gallup Polling, November 3-7 2022:

Klobuchar Approval Rating: Approve 50%, Dissaprove 44% , Unsure 6%

Congressional Generic Ballot: Republicans 50%, Democrats 45%, Unsure 5%

Gov. Laura Kelly (D-KS) campaigning for re-election, October 2022.
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« Reply #94 on: January 31, 2019, 04:43:39 AM »
« Edited: January 31, 2019, 04:56:41 AM by alancia »

Election Night 2022
___________________________________________________________________________________________________

Good evening and welcome to Decision 22! This night, the American people will choose their Governors, Senators, and Representatives. It is only a few minutes until the 6 AM Poll closings and while we await them we have some results from the exit polls, which may or may not be consistent with the election results...

Klobuchar Approval:  50% Approve, 49% Dissaprove, 1% No Answer

Midterm Vote: 52% Republicans, 47% Democrats, 1% No Answer

6 PM

Now its 6 PM on the East Coast and polls have closed in parts of Kentucky and Indiana. For now, we have put the Senate races in both of these states in the 'too close to call' category, as we await poll closings in the rest of these states in one hour. For now, sit back and relax...

Indiana Senate (3% Reporting)

Pence: 51%
Young: 40%
Other: 11%

Kentucky Senate (2% Reporting)

Paul: 59%
Meyer: 38%
Other: 3%

7 PM

Its 7 PM on the East Coast and we now have poll closings in the remaining parts of Kentucky and Indiana, and also in the states of Virginia, South Carolina, Georgia and most of Florida, and we have some projections to make... In the Senate, we can project that Rand Paul and Tim Scott will win re-election for another six year term. In Vermont, Florida and Georgia, it is either to close or too early to call.

In the Governor's race, we can project that Governors Scott and McMaster will win re-election in Vermont and South Carolina, respectly. The races in Florida and Georgia meanwhile are too early to call, as we await for more results...

Kentucky Senate (6% Reporting)

Paul: 58% ✓
Meyer: 39%
Other: 3%

South Carolina Senate (5% Reporting)

Scott: 58% ✓
Sellers: 40%
Other: 2%

Indiana Senate (9% Reporting)

Pence: 52%
Young: 41%
Other: 7%

Vermont Senate (3% Reporting)

Zuckerman: 38%
Juskiewicz: 32%
Balint: 22%
Other: 8%

Georgia Senate (4% Reporting)

Cagle: 52%
Carter: 43%
Other: 5%

Florida Senate (3% Reporting)

Lopez-Cantera: 50%
Graham: 47%
Other: 3%

Vermont Governor

Scott: 57% ✓
Pollina: 36%
Other: 7%

South Carolina Governor

McMaster: 58% ✓
Benjamin: 38%
Other: 4%

Georgia Governor

Kemp: 53%
Yates: 42%
Other: 5%

Florida Governor

DeSantis: 53%
Cruz: 45%
Other: 2%

Senate Map



Democratic States // Polls Not Closed Yet Or No Election // Too Early or Close To Call // Republican States

Republicans: 36 Seats
Democrats: 33 Seats
Independents: 2 Seats (Not Up For Re-Election)

Governor's Map



Democratic States // Polls Not Closed Yet Or No Election // Too Early or Close To Call // Republican States

Republicans: 11 Seats
Democrats: 5 Seats

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« Reply #95 on: January 31, 2019, 06:53:06 AM »
« Edited: January 31, 2019, 08:27:28 AM by alancia »

Election Night 2022
___________________________________________________________________________________________________

7:30 PM

Its half past seven PM on the East Coast and polls have closed in the states of Ohio, West Virginia and North Carolina. We have one projection to make, and that is that the Ohio Senate race will be won by former Vice-President Rob Portman. Meanwhile, the North Carolina Senate race between McCrory and Foxx is too early to call... The Ohio Governor's race is also too early to call, but Husted is in the lead.

Ohio Senate (3% Reporting)

Portman: 55% ✓
O'Connor: 42%
Other: 3%

Ohio Governor

Husted: 52%
Schiavoni: 45%
Other: 3%

North Carolina Senate (2% Reporting)

Foxx: 48%
McCrory: 47%
Other: 5%

7:54 PM

Six minutes before the 8 PM closings we have an important projection to make, we can now say that David Zuckerman, the Vermont lieutenant governor, will be the next U.S Senator from the state, replacing the retiring Pat Leahy. This adds another seat in the Senate that is not Democrat and Republican, and Vermont will uniquely not be represented by either party, with independent Bernie Sanders on the other seat...

Vermont Senate (11% Reporting)

Zuckerman: 41% ✓
Juskiewicz: 30%
Balint: 22%
Other: 7%

8:01 PM

Its now a minute past 8 PM on the East Coast and we have a lengthy list of states that have closed their polls, and that includes New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Maine, Maryland, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Alabama, Mississippi, Missouri, Tennessee, Illinois, Oklahoma and Delaware. Also closing their polls are most of Michigan; Texas; Kansas; and South Dakota, the Florida Panhandle and parts of North Dakota.

Likewise, we do have projections to make both in the Senate and in the Governor's race and let's run the board... For the Senate, we can project that Senators Lankford and Blunt will stay in the upper chamber, while the unopposed Mo Brooks will replace the retiring Richard Shelby in Alabama. For the Democrats, Tammy Duckworth is re-elected for another six year term in the Senate, as well. Meanwhile, the Senate races in the states of Maryland, Connecticut, New Hampshire, Florida, Pennsylvania, Kansas and in the Dakotas are too early or too close to call.

For the Governors, we project that Governors Lee, Stitt, Baker and Ivey; all Republicans, will win re-election in their states. In Illinois, Democrat Pritzker will also win re-election. In Texas, Florida, Kansas, South Dakota, New Hampshire, Maine, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Maryland it is either too close or too early to call.

Oklahoma Senate (3% Reporting)

Lankford: 64% ✓
Lawson: 33%
Other: 3%

Missouri Senate (2% Reporting)

Blunt: 54% ✓
Galloway: 41%
Other: 5%

Alabama Senate (1% Reporting)

Brooks: 89% ✓
Other: 11%

Illinois Senate (4% Reporting)

Duckworth: 52% ✓
Sanguinetti: 43%
Other: 5%

Maryland Senate (4% Reporting)

van Hollen: 53%
Hogan: 44%
Other: 3%

Connecticut Senate (2% Reporting)

Himes: 52%
Boughton: 45%
Other: 3%

New Hampshire Senate (2% Reporting)

Guinta: 48%
Hassan: 46%
Other: 6%

Florida Senate (15% Reporting)

Lopez-Cantera: 51%
Graham: 46%
Other: 3%

Pennsylvania Senate (3% Reporting)

Lamb: 49%
Toomey: 47%
Other: 4%

Kansas Senate (2% Reporting)

Moran: 50%
Davids: 43%
Other: 7%

South Dakota Senate (1% Reporting)

Thune: 76%
Diedrich: 21%
Other: 3%

North Dakota Senate (1% Reporting)

Hoeven: 80%
Sand: 16%
Other: 4%

Oklahoma Governor

Stitt: 62% ✓
Horn: 35%
Other: 3%

Alabama Governor

Ivey: 65% ✓
Fischer: 33%
Other: 2%

Tennessee Governor

Lee: 63% ✓
Briley: 34%
Other: 3%

Massachusetts Governor

Baker: 71% ✓
Bussgang: 28%
Other: 1%

Illinois Governor

Pritzker: 56% ✓
Fowler: 42%
Other: 2%

Texas Governor (2% Reporting)

Crenshaw: 56%
Gallego: 40%
Other: 4%


Florida Governor

DeSantis: 54%
Cruz: 44%
Other: 2%

Kansas Governor

Kelly: 45%
Wagle: 44%
Orman: 8%
Other: 3%

South Dakota Governor

Noem: 60%
Dawn Foster: 35%
Other: 5%

New Hampshire Governor

Sununu: 51%
Tanner: 47%
Other: 2%

Maine Governor (3% Reporting)

Mills: 50%
Cyrway: 46%
Other: 4%

Connecticut Governor

Stefanowski: 49%
Lamont: 47%
Other: 4%

Rhode Island Governor (2% Reporting)

Lynch: 45%
Algiere: 43%
Hagan: 9%
Other: 3%

Pennsylvania Governor

Corman: 47%
Fetterman: 47%
Other: 6%

Maryland Governor

Delaney: 51%
Rutherford: 46%
Other: 3%

Michigan Governor (3% Reporting)

Colbeck: 54%
Whitmer: 42%
Other: 4%

Senate Map



Democratic States // Polls Not Closed Yet Or No Election // Too Early or Close To Call // Republican States // Other Party

Republicans: 40 Seats
Democrats: 34 Seats
Other Party: 1 Seat
Independents: 2 Seats (Not Up For Re-Election)

Governor's Map



Democratic States // Polls Not Closed Yet Or No Election // Too Early or Close To Call // Republican States

Republicans: 15 Seats
Democrats: 5 Seats

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Cold War Liberal
KennedyWannabe99
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« Reply #96 on: January 31, 2019, 09:30:41 AM »

I seriously doubt Boyd Rutherford will run for governor (I don't think he wants the job) and having met him I really don't think he has the personality to win a campaign here in MD. Delaney's bland enough that the race might be close, though.
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alancia
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« Reply #97 on: January 31, 2019, 10:09:57 AM »

I seriously doubt Boyd Rutherford will run for governor (I don't think he wants the job) and having met him I really don't think he has the personality to win a campaign here in MD. Delaney's bland enough that the race might be close, though.

Yeah. In this case the Republicans convince him to run, but MD-gov is the most vulnerable Republican governorship for these reasons.

Anyway, thanks for commenting!
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Cold War Liberal
KennedyWannabe99
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« Reply #98 on: January 31, 2019, 10:15:50 AM »

I seriously doubt Boyd Rutherford will run for governor (I don't think he wants the job) and having met him I really don't think he has the personality to win a campaign here in MD. Delaney's bland enough that the race might be close, though.

Yeah. In this case the Republicans convince him to run, but MD-gov is the most vulnerable Republican governorship for these reasons.

Anyway, thanks for commenting!
It would take a lot of persuasion but a Rutherford 2022 bid for either the Governorship or (less likely) the Senate is not by any means outside the realm of possibility.

Great, interesting timeline btw
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alancia
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« Reply #99 on: January 31, 2019, 11:26:19 PM »

Election Night 2022
___________________________________________________________________________________________________

8:22 PM

Just some minutes before half past eight on the Eastern timezone and we have another projection to make. In the state of Indiana, we can project that Greg Pence, the brother of the former President, will unseat Republican Todd Young in the Senate Race. Initially an underdog, Pence has caught up in the recent weeks and now it looks like he's defeating Young by quite a large margin there...

Indiana Senate (22% Reporting)

Pence: 53% ✓
Young: 41%
Other: 6%

8:30 PM

Only one state closes its poll at half past eight and its the Natural State, Arkansas. There, we can make two projections, as expected... In the Senate Race, we can project that John Boozman will return for another six year term. At the gubernatorial level, we can also say that Lance Eads is the projected winner, replacing the term-limited Asa Hutchinson.

Arkansas Senate (3% Reporting)

Boozman: 57% ✓
Tucker: 39%
Other: 4%

Arkansas Governor

Eads: 60% ✓
Jordan: 36%
Other: 4%

8:46 PM

Just fourteen minutes before the nine o'clock poll closings and we have a new projection to make. In Florida, the Sunshine State, we can project the gubernatorial race for Governor DeSantis. This is a very important hold for the Republicans, and one that may have some effect on the Senate race.

Florida Governor (51% Reporting)

DeSantis: 54% ✓
Cruz: 45%
Other: 1%

9 PM

We have reached another important poll closing time, at nine o'clock the polls have closed in the states of Wisconsin, New York, Louisiana, Minnesota, Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Nebraska, Wyoming, and parts of Texas; Kansas; The Dakotas and Michigan.

At the top of the hour we can project that the Senate races in North and South Dakota will be won by the Republicans, defeating some token opposition there, as well as in Kansas we can project that Senator Jerry Moran will be re-elected. In New York, Chuck Schumer, the Senate Minority Leader, will also win re-election. Meanwhile, the Senate races in the rest of these states are too close or too early to call...

In the Governor's races, we can project the races in South Dakota, Nebraska, Texas and Wyoming for the GOP, and the race in New Mexico for Governor Grisham, the Democrat. The races in the states of Wisconsin, New York, Michigan, Minnesota, Arizona and Colorado are meanwhile too early or too close to call as well.

South Dakota Senate (5% Reporting)

Thune: 74% ✓
Diedrich: 22%
Other: 4%

North Dakota Senate (6% Reporting)

Hoeven: 81% ✓
Sand: 15%
Other: 4%

Kansas Senate (14% Reporting)

Moran: 51% ✓
Davids: 44%
Other: 5%

New York Senate (5% Reporting)

Schumer: 56% ✓
Gibson: 38%
Other: 6%

Louisiana Senate (4% Reporting)

Kennedy: 52%
Edwards: 31%
Landrieu: 16%
Other: 1%

Wisconsin Senate (3% Reporting)

Pocan: 48%
LeMahieu: 47%
Other: 5%

Colorado Senate (5% Reporting)

Bennet: 53%
Tipton: 43%
Other: 4%

Arizona Senate (5% Reporting)

Ducey: 50%
Gallego: 48%
Other: 2%

South Dakota Governor

Noem: 56% ✓
Dawn Foster: 41%
Other: 3%

Texas Governor (10% Reporting)

Crenshaw: 57% ✓
Gallego: 39%
Other: 4%

Nebraska Governor (3% Reporting)

Foley: 59% ✓
Lathrop: 36%
Other: 5%

Wyoming Governor (2% Reporting)

Gordon: 68% ✓
Mackey: 28%
Other: 4%

New Mexico Governor (3% Reporting)

Grisham: 53% ✓
Baldonado: 40%
Other: 7%

Arizona Governor

Reagan: 51%
Gordon: 45%
Other: 4%

Wisconsin Governor

Walker: 47%
Evers: 46%
Other: 7%

Colorado Governor

Polis: 54%
Gardner: 42%
Other: 4%

New York Governor

Cuomo: 40%
Serino: 40%
Nixon: 14%
Other: 6%

Michigan Governor (15% Reporting)

Colbeck: 52%
Whitmer: 44%
Other: 4%

Minnesota Governor (4% Reporting)

Walz: 50%
Stauber: 44%
Other: 6%

Senate Map



Democratic States // Polls Not Closed Yet Or No Election // Too Early or Close To Call // Republican States // Other Party

Republicans: 44 Seats
Democrats: 35 Seats
Other Party: 1 Seat
Independents: 2 Seats (Not Up For Re-Election)

Governor's Map



Democratic States // Polls Not Closed Yet Or No Election // Too Early or Close To Call // Republican States

Republicans: 20 Seats
Democrats: 6 Seats

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