The Republican Party establishment will push for Nikki Haley but Ted Cruz will probably win the nomination since he was the runner up in 2016 and he was the most competitive runner up since Reagan and Ford in 1976.
Ehh I don't know. The Republican Party was more divided in 2016 and the vote spread across far more candidates than other election cycles, so I don't know if that's really an accurate comparison. Runner-ups sometime succeed and sometimes don't -- ask Santorum how well 2016 worked out for him. Anyway, the Tea Party and evangelical wing of the Republican Party is seriously in decline, and Cruz's approval numbers are weak, even in Texas. My guess in 2024 sees a more refined Trumpian figure.
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