What's keeping Wisconsin and Michigan purple?

[Hatchet]

Iowa and Ohio have basically turned into Right-wing utopias of the Midwest, but states like Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Michigan have still somehow managed to stay purple. The rural areas of these states are turning Republican, but what I don't understand about Wisconsin is how the rurals have not only trended R, but also the fact that Milwaukee suburbs are barely turning Blue and still heavily Republican and will likely stay that way since they're not getting anymore diverse. Also, these states aren't attracting a young and educated populace like Minnesota or Colorado, so what's keeping them purple?

[TML]

For Michigan, there are some regions which are Democratic strongholds (Detroit, Ann Arbor, Lansing, and Flint), some which are Republican strongholds (rural north/west areas, Grand Rapids, Howell), and the Detroit suburbs, which is a major competitive region. In average years, the base regions can pretty much cancel each other out, so the Detroit suburbs will decide which party ends up winning statewide.

For Wisconsin, Democratic strongholds include Milwaukee, Madison, Menominee, while Republican strongholds are the rural areas in the north/east. Southwestern WI is the swing area - this area helped people like Walker, Johnson, and Trump win in 2010, 2014, and 2016, while helping Obama and Baldwin in 2012 and 2018.

[RINO Tom]

Because states are more complex and diverse than Atlas would like?

[Annatar]

Wisconsin and Michigan appear to be around 5 to 8 years behind Ohio in their transition. A point I have made before is the Republican strength in small town and small cities has spread out of the deep south almost like a red virus. In the 1990's the small towns of the deep south, Alabama, Louisiana went red, then in the 2000's the small towns of Kentucky and Tennessee and Missouri went red. In the 2010's the small towns of Ohio and Iowa have gone red. Right now a lot of small towns in Wisconsin are voting 60-40 for the GOP, by next decade they will probably be 65-35 at which point the state will go red. Ditto for Michigan.

[pbrower2a]

Rural areas. The small farmers used to be split almost evenly D-R and were a legitimate swing vote. Farm consolidation has largely squeezed the small farmers out of agriculture with the remaining giant farmers taking on the characteristics of agrarian aristocrats as they were in Europe before the Second World War -- reactionary, anti-proletarian, and even fascist.

Michigan outside of Greater Detroit, Flint, Saginaw, and the UP (at once a mining area) was decidedly conservative out of disdain for Detroit /Flint/Saginaw politics.  Western Michigan (basically anything west of US-127 and I-75 votes much like Texas), with East Lansing as a sort of Austin.  Such was also so in Wisconsin as a demographic reality.

Remember that Wisconsin gave America Joseph R. McCarthy as a Senator and recently Governor Scott Walker. Wisconsin is extremely polarized  between Left and Right, and if the balance goes one way or the other, Wisconsin can swing wildly. Michigan has more blacks, so it does not swing so much.

[Young Conservative]

A few things:
-much bigger urban centers
-longer history of rural Democrats and progressivism
-stronger history of unions
-fewer white evangelicals

They're all trending R though.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

DTW and MKE are more Dem than Clev. The suburbs around the urban cities in MI and WI are like Chicago

[Mr.Phips]

DTW and MKE are more Dem than Clev. The suburbs around the urban cities in MI and WI are like Chicago

I agree the Detroit suburbs are like the Chicago suburbs, but the Milwaukee suburbs remain super Republican and show no signs of moderating very much.

[lfromnj]

DTW and MKE are more Dem than Clev. The suburbs around the urban cities in MI and WI are like Chicago

I agree the Detroit suburbs are like the Chicago suburbs, but the Milwaukee suburbs remain super Republican and show no signs of moderating very much.

ozaukee is zooming left.

[BrewCityLiberal]

DTW and MKE are more Dem than Clev. The suburbs around the urban cities in MI and WI are like Chicago

I agree the Detroit suburbs are like the Chicago suburbs, but the Milwaukee suburbs remain super Republican and show no signs of moderating very much.

The WOW counties are actually trending D, as evidenced by this year's midterms, but very slowly.

[Mr.Phips]

DTW and MKE are more Dem than Clev. The suburbs around the urban cities in MI and WI are like Chicago

I agree the Detroit suburbs are like the Chicago suburbs, but the Milwaukee suburbs remain super Republican and show no signs of moderating very much.

ozaukee is zooming left.

Certainly not zooming, maybe inching.

[lfromnj]

DTW and MKE are more Dem than Clev. The suburbs around the urban cities in MI and WI are like Chicago

I agree the Detroit suburbs are like the Chicago suburbs, but the Milwaukee suburbs remain super Republican and show no signs of moderating very much.

ozaukee is zooming left.

Certainly not zooming, maybe inching.

Romney won it by 30
Trump won it by 18.

thats zooming for me.

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

As others have said, large cities and suburbs which are trending Democratic, not to mention that the rural areas are losing population, unlike states like Missouri. I maintain that Michigan is more worrisome long-term, since Detroit isn't growing, while at least Madison is.

[pbrower2a]

DTW and MKE are more Dem than Clev. The suburbs around the urban cities in MI and WI are like Chicago

I agree the Detroit suburbs are like the Chicago suburbs, but the Milwaukee suburbs remain super Republican and show no signs of moderating very much.

The Ohio suburbs of Cleveland, Cincinnati, Dayton, and Toledo just are not growing. Those suburbs may be drifting D, but only because people from the core cities are moving to the suburbs. Youngstown is a dying city, and Akron and Canton are in life support.

Have you ever been to Toledo? For a city of its size, it is easy to get around. The only traffic jams that I have experienced in Toledo have been linked to highway construction. If you want to know where the vibrant economies are, then look to see where the traffic jams are. I see traffic jams on 696 and 275 in suburbs ringing Detroit in the northern and western suburbs. Toledo city streets? It's like driving in Adrian, Michigan, a city about 40 miles away and with a population of about 25K.

As for Milwaukee suburbs -- that is where Scott Walker and Ron Johnson get or got  their electoral support, I see trends toward the Democratic Party in suburbs of Indianapolis -- if a tendency from 80% R to 60% R says anything. 

[Mr.Phips]

DTW and MKE are more Dem than Clev. The suburbs around the urban cities in MI and WI are like Chicago

I agree the Detroit suburbs are like the Chicago suburbs, but the Milwaukee suburbs remain super Republican and show no signs of moderating very much.

ozaukee is zooming left.

Certainly not zooming, maybe inching.

Romney won it by 30
Trump won it by 18.

thats zooming for me.

Walker won it by 27 while losing.

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

DTW and MKE are more Dem than Clev. The suburbs around the urban cities in MI and WI are like Chicago

I agree the Detroit suburbs are like the Chicago suburbs, but the Milwaukee suburbs remain super Republican and show no signs of moderating very much.

ozaukee is zooming left.

Certainly not zooming, maybe inching.

Romney won it by 30
Trump won it by 18.

thats zooming for me.

Walker won it by 27 while losing.

Though in 2014, he won it by 41, so that's a pretty massive swing, larger than the statewide swing.

[ponderosa peen 🌲]

DTW and MKE are more Dem than Clev. The suburbs around the urban cities in MI and WI are like Chicago

I agree the Detroit suburbs are like the Chicago suburbs, but the Milwaukee suburbs remain super Republican and show no signs of moderating very much.

ozaukee is zooming left.

Certainly not zooming, maybe inching.

Romney won it by 30
Trump won it by 18.

thats zooming for me.

Walker won it by 27 while losing.

Vukmir won Ozaukee by only 16. Walker was an incumbent and started his political career in the Milwaukee suburbs.

[ElectionsGuy]

For Wisconsin - Dane and WOW
For Michigan - Washtenaw and Oakland counties

Dane is to Washtenaw and Oakland is to Waukesha/Ozaukee. Macomb and Livingston are the equivalents of Racine/Kenosha and Washington, respectively.