How long until Iowa is to the right of Missouri?

[pops]

It seems inevitable to me that Iowa (and possibly Wisconsin) will be to the right of Missouri in the not too distant future. When would this happen and how?

[538Electoral]

Not too sure. But 1992 was the last time to date that Iowa voted more Republican than Missouri.

[RINO Tom]

Wisconsin?  K, LOL.

[BrewCityLiberal]

Wisconsin? Seriously? It may be trending a little bit rightward, but it will certainly not vote to the right of Missouri anytime soon! Dane County, the state's second largest county, is growing very fast and adds more Democratic voters every election cycle. WI is almost in the same boat as Minnesota: Major metros are growing and getting bluer, while rurals are either stagnating or shrinking while getting redder.

As for Iowa, I am not sure, but I think it'll remain purple for a while.

Atlas does come up with some comical theories sometimes.

[pbrower2a]

Iowa does not have the large number of fundamentalist Christians that Missouri has.

[AudmanOut]

This will never happen at least in the near future.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

This will never happen at least in the near future.

IA has a Democratic delegation now.

[AudmanOut]

This will never happen at least in the near future.

IA has a Democratic delegation now.

Can you read?

[Tartarus Sauce]

I’m not sure why you think it’s inevitable. Not only does Missouri have more fundamentalist Evangelicals, but it’s also not seeing much of an inflow of college-educated whites. Iowa is growing below the national average rate, but the places that are growing (Des Moines, Ames, Iowa City-Cedar Rapids corridor) are attracting both Millenials and college-educated white professionals while blue-collar town and rural Iowa which are trending rightward are shrinking.

[Rhode Islander First, American Second]

Missouri is trending R so fast, I doubt this will happen anytime soon.

[BrewCityLiberal]

I’m not sure why you think it’s inevitable. Not only does Missouri have more fundamentalist Evangelicals, but it’s also not seeing much of an inflow of college-educated whites. Iowa is growing below the national average rate, but the places that are growing (Des Moines, Ames, Iowa City-Cedar Rapids corridor) are attracting both Millenials and college-educated white professionals while blue-collar town and rural Iowa which are trending rightward are shrinking.

Agreed. Wisconsin is seeing similar trends with the growth of Dane County.

[Zaybay]

Dont know how this is "inevitable".

[bagelman]

Why would MO be left of IA or WI?!

[BrewCityLiberal]

Why would MO be left of IA or WI?!

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

I doubt it will be to the right of Missouri with any regularity, given how far to the right Missouri has moved.

[Frenchrepublican]

I don’t really see how this situation could happen because Missouri is far more socially conservative than Iowa, it seems to me fairly unlikely that rural areas of Iowa (outside of the north-west) would vote as much republican than southeastern MO

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

There was a pro-Trump stance in Trump and OH due to realignment changes.  However, Trump, ethics has hurt him in KY, VA, IA and OH regions, the OH gov race was winnable, but Cordray, lacked some charisma in the race with DeWine.

IA will be once again, a battleground.

[หมูเด้ง]

They'll never have Missouri level barbecue if that's what you are asking.

[ElectionsGuy]

It's not implausible, but hard to imagine currently. One thing that is notable about Missouri is it has two big cities where Democrats will run up vote in any circumstance. Iowa only has very moderate sized cities and no major metropolitan areas. Missouri's rural areas are also already extremely Republican. So naturally, the Democratic floor in Missouri is probably higher than Iowa's, in fact, it's probably close to what Clinton got. However, Iowa easily has more movable/moderate rural and suburban voters which should keep it to the left of Missouri for a while, at least another decade.

And others have said it, but Wisconsin will stay a toss-up for some time.

[RoyCooper2020]

Missouri is trending R so fast, I doubt this will happen anytime soon.

[Politician]

Never

[Wazza]

Its not going to happen at least for a while because Missouri's strong Republican lean is largely due to its large, socially-conservative Southern Baptist population which Iowa is lacking.

[RINO Tom]

Both Iowa and Missouri will be solid red states in the near future.

If you're going to post a hot take, at least address the question in the OP, LOL.

Anyway, not until coalitions change (which I estimate to happen in the late 2030s).

[BrewCityLiberal]

Both Iowa and Missouri will be solid red states in the near future.

Iowa most definitely won't! Iowa has a Democratic stronghold (Johnson County), and Des Moines and Ames are trending D. And Cedar Rapids, its second largest city, is elastic and swingy.

As others have noted, Iowa is considerably less religious (and thus less culturally conservative) than Missouri. The biggest mistake Atlas makes is assuming any trend is permanent.

[RINO Tom]

Both Iowa and Missouri will be solid red states in the near future.

Iowa most definitely won't! Iowa has a Democratic stronghold (Johnson County), and Des Moines and Ames are trending D. And Cedar Rapids, its second largest city, is elastic and swingy.

As others have noted, Iowa is considerably less religious (and thus less culturally conservative) than Missouri. The biggest mistake Atlas makes is assuming any trend is permanent.

Like assuming anywhere remotely cosmopolitan will indefinitely become more Democratic, haha.