Will Minnesota always stay blue because of the Twin Cities metro?

[Scottholes 2.0]

It seems like the state has trended leftward since Al Franken won in 2009. The DFL has had the state on lockdown since then, all while other midwestern states (besides Illinois) have trended towards the GOP. Will Minnesota eventually elect a GOP governor or U.S. Senator in the 2020's, or will the growing TC metro always keep the state on lockdown for Democrats like the Chicago Metro has done in Illinois?

[ElectionsGuy]

No. I would bet money on Republicans winning either a Senate or Governor race in the next midterm of a Democratic president. It's noteworthy how unsuccessful they've been even in the Obama years at winning statewide races, but in the post-Trump era, that will be easier given rural areas that were 55-45 Republican are now voting 65% and more Republican. Combine that with low liberal enthusiasm in a midterm and you have yourself a Republican Senator or Governor. At the presidential level, probably tough for Trump to win but a Republican should eventually win it in the 2020s.

[morgankingsley]

I wouldn't say always, but definitely for another four or five elections at least bar a major upset

[Jags]

I wouldn't say always, but definitely for another four or five elections at least bar a major upset

[Skill and Chance]

To me, it looks like the Democratic version of North Carolina.  Demographically, it feels like it should flip and the dominant statewide party's edge steadily erodes for a few elections.  But then the dominant party's base areas unexpectedly shift from ~60% to ~80% support, keeping them (mostly) in control for another 10-20 years.  It's pretty clearly going to be the last Dem holdout in the non-Chicago Midwest.

*Rural state legislative districts supporting Dem representatives after decades of voting GOP for president complicates the NC comparison.  But there is/was actually a fair amount of this in suburban MSP (with the parties reversed) until this year.

**Speaking of which, is the population skewed enough that it's theoretically possible to control the MN state legislature with only MSP area seats?  I think yes?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

To me, it looks like the Democratic version of North Carolina.  Demographically, it feels like it should flip and the dominant statewide party's edge steadily erodes for a few elections.  But then the dominant party's base areas unexpectedly shift from ~60% to ~80% support, keeping them (mostly) in control for another 10-20 years.  It's pretty clearly going to be the last Dem holdout in the non-Chicago Midwest.

*Rural state legislative districts supporting Dem representatives after decades of voting GOP for president complicates the NC comparison.  But there is/was actually a fair amount of this in suburban MSP (with the parties reversed) until this year.

**Speaking of which, is the population skewed enough that it's theoretically possible to control the MN state legislature with only MSP area seats?  I think yes?

Theoretically it might be possible by the numbers, but no scenario where the DFL loses all seats in Duluth, Mankato, Rochester and Moorhead is ever going to happen. And remember that Duluth proper voted for Hillary by almost 30 points, so it's not going "realign" any time soon.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

There is something that I think people tend to overlook about outstate Minnesota 2016. That is college turnout sucked. Like really really sucked. It's kind of a stretch to assume this will always be the case.

For example, here is Mankato P-7, the precinct that includes my college residence.

Republican      Donald J. Trump and Michael R. Pence   325   35.33%   
Democratic-Farmer-Labor      Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine   481   52.28%   
Constitution Party      Darrell Castle and Scott Bradley   5   0.54%   
Legal Marijuana Now      Dan R. Vacek and Mark Elworth, Jr.   3   0.33%   
Socialist Workers Party      Alyson Kennedy and Osborne Hart   0   0.00%   
Green Party      Jill Stein and Howie Hawkins   29   3.15%   
American Delta Party      "Rocky" Roque De La Fuente and Michael Steinberg   0   0.00%   
Independence      Evan McMullin and Nathan Johnson   11   1.20%   
Libertarian Party      Gary Johnson and William Weld   52   5.65%   
Write-In      WRITE-IN**   14   1.52%

This is how the precinct voted in 2012:
Republican      MITT ROMNEY AND PAUL RYAN   419   37.82%   
Democratic-Farmer-Labor      BARACK OBAMA AND JOE BIDEN   653   58.94%   
Libertarian Party      GARY JOHNSON AND JIM GRAY   20   1.81%   
Socialist Workers Party      JAMES HARRIS AND MAURA DELUCA   0   0.00%   
Constitution Party      VIRGIL GOODE AND JIM CLYMER   2   0.18%   
Constitutional Government      DEAN MORSTAD AND JOSH FRANKE-HYLAND   0   0.00%   
Green Party      JILL STEIN AND CHERI HONKALA   11   0.99%   
Grassroots Party      JIM CARLSON AND GEORGE MCMAHON   1   0.09%   
Socialism and Liberation      PETA LINDSAY AND YARI OSORIO   0   0.00%   
Justice Party      ROSS C. "ROCKY" ANDERSON AND LUIS J. RODRIGUEZ   0   0.00%   
Write-In      WRITE-IN**   2   0.18%   

So Hillary got a 156 vote margin vs Obama's 234 margin. That doesn't sound like a huge difference, but in fact it gives Obama exactly 150% of Hillary's margin, and that's just one campus precinct. There's others in Mankato. Note that Trump also underperformed Romney, so that shows just how poorly motivated liberal leaning college students were.

And this was 2018:

Republican      Jeff Johnson and Donna Bergstrom   189   27.23%   
Democratic-Farmer-Labor      Tim Walz and Peggy Flanagan   475   68.44%   
Grassroots - Legalize Cannabis      Chris Wright and Judith Schwartzbacker   20   2.88%   
Libertarian      Josh Welter and Mary O'Connor   10   1.44%   
Write-In      WRITE-IN**   0   0.00%

Republican      Karin Housley   201   29.13%   
Democratic-Farmer-Labor      Tina Smith   433   62.75%   
Legal Marijuana Now      Sarah Wellington   48   6.96%   
Unaffiliated      Jerry Trooien   8   1.16%   
Write-In      WRITE-IN**   0   0.00%

The Governor race was no doubt a bit skewed thank to Mankato being Walz's hometown, but please note that Tina Smith got a larger margin of victory in votes than Hillary...in a midterm.

In fact, even Keith Ellison did...and that's with a Legal Marijuana Now candidate polling 7%!

Republican      Doug Wardlow   212   31.04%   
Democratic-Farmer-Labor      Keith Ellison   421   61.64%   
Grassroots - Legalize Cannabis      Noah M. Johnson   48   7.03%   
Write-In      WRITE-IN**   2   0.29%