New Virginia Governor Poll

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

A Washington post poll shows Kaine leading Killgore by 3% persentige points (47% for Kaine, 44% for Kilgore).

[WalterMitty]

any chance potts will drop out and endorse kaine or kilgore?

[True Democrat]

any chance potts will drop out and endorse kaine or kilgore?

I don't think so.  From what I've heard, he's kind of like Ralph Nader: too proud.

[nini2287]

any chance potts will drop out and endorse kaine or kilgore?

I don't think so.  From what I've heard, he's kind of like Ralph Nader: too proud.

If he does, he's likely to endorse Kaine I think.  I have a copy of the Post and some more details:

1,004 Likely Voters

In Northern Virginia:
Kaine 53
Kilgore 38
Potts 4

"Has Been Honest in His Political Dealings"
Kilgore 47-45
Kaine 60-32

"Would Say Anything to get Elected"
Kilgore 55-41
Kaine 43-53

"He Would Work to Hold Down Taxes"
Kilgore 63-32
Kaine 41-53

"Do you think they have been conducting mainly a positive or negativite campaign?
Kilgore
Positive 29
Negative 67

Kaine
Positive 57
Negative 40

Eight of 10 voters responded they had seen one of Kilgore's death penalty ads, and if they had, they were asked:

Do you think these ads are fair or unfair to Kaine?

Fair 31
Unfair 65

Among Republicans:
Fair 54
Unfair 42

Among Indpendents:
Fair 23
Unfair 73

Among Democrats:
Fair 8
Unfair 89


Does Bush's endorsement of Kilgore make you more or less likely to support him
More 26
Less 40
No Difference 26

Does Warner's endorsement of Kaine make you more or less likely to support him?
More 40
Less 26
No Difference 32

Bush's Approval
Approve 44
Disapprove 55

Warner's Approval
Approve 80 (?)
Disapprove 17

[Flying Dog]

Kaine needs a consistent 3-4% lead

[A18]

No, actually he doesn't even need a lead. This is a tossup, and that probably means I'm going to get stuck with some joke governor.

[Blank Slate]

any chance potts will drop out and endorse kaine or kilgore?

I don't think so.  From what I've heard, he's kind of like Ralph Nader: too proud.

If he does, he's likely to endorse Kaine I think.  I have a copy of the Post and some more details:

1,004 Likely Voters

In Northern Virginia:
Kaine 53
Kilgore 38
Potts 4

"Has Been Honest in His Political Dealings"
Kilgore 47-45
Kaine 60-32

"Would Say Anything to get Elected"
Kilgore 55-41
Kaine 43-53

"He Would Work to Hold Down Taxes"
Kilgore 63-32
Kaine 41-53

"Do you think they have been conducting mainly a positive or negativite campaign?
Kilgore
Positive 29
Negative 67

Kaine
Positive 57
Negative 40

Eight of 10 voters responded they had seen one of Kilgore's death penalty ads, and if they had, they were asked:

Do you think these ads are fair or unfair to Kaine?

Fair 31
Unfair 65

Among Republicans:
Fair 54
Unfair 42

Among Indpendents:
Fair 23
Unfair 73

Among Democrats:
Fair 8
Unfair 89


Does Bush's endorsement of Kilgore make you more or less likely to support him
More 26
Less 40
No Difference 26

Does Warner's endorsement of Kaine make you more or less likely to support him?
More 40
Less 26
No Difference 32

Bush's Approval
Approve 44
Disapprove 55

Warner's Approval
Approve 80 (?)
Disapprove 17

GO KAINE!!!!!!!!!!

Well this shows that this is still very close, but Kaine is doing better near the end.  It will be interesting if the GOP 72 hour plan works this year in VA as it has done in the last three election cycles or if it will peter out due to Bush's poor approval ratings in this poll.  I'd trust this more than a Rasmussen poll.  Warner's endorsement of Kaine does work for Kaine and against Kilgore. 

I still think that Democrats should be more competitive overall in VA than they have been recently. 

Of course all may ride on how high the turnout is in Northern VA as compared to the rest of the state.   As a Democrat,  I do hope that Potts does not drop out, since apparently Potts takes more out of Kilgore then he does out of Kaine in Northern VA.

Oh, and I have to admit, I'm glad I didn't make that move to VA that was a possibility back in late August, because I don't think I could have slept very well with this election going on.

[Ben.]

any chance potts will drop out and endorse kaine or kilgore?

I don't think so.  From what I've heard, he's kind of like Ralph Nader: too proud.

If he does, he's likely to endorse Kaine I think.  I have a copy of the Post and some more details:

1,004 Likely Voters

In Northern Virginia:
Kaine 53
Kilgore 38
Potts 4

"Has Been Honest in His Political Dealings"
Kilgore 47-45
Kaine 60-32

"Would Say Anything to get Elected"
Kilgore 55-41
Kaine 43-53

"He Would Work to Hold Down Taxes"
Kilgore 63-32
Kaine 41-53

"Do you think they have been conducting mainly a positive or negativite campaign?
Kilgore
Positive 29
Negative 67

Kaine
Positive 57
Negative 40

Eight of 10 voters responded they had seen one of Kilgore's death penalty ads, and if they had, they were asked:

Do you think these ads are fair or unfair to Kaine?

Fair 31
Unfair 65

Among Republicans:
Fair 54
Unfair 42

Among Indpendents:
Fair 23
Unfair 73

Among Democrats:
Fair 8
Unfair 89


Does Bush's endorsement of Kilgore make you more or less likely to support him
More 26
Less 40
No Difference 26

Does Warner's endorsement of Kaine make you more or less likely to support him?
More 40
Less 26
No Difference 32

Bush's Approval
Approve 44
Disapprove 55

Warner's Approval
Approve 80 (?)
Disapprove 17

All excellent news

[ian]

I think this is close to the results of Rasmussen's poll, which, I think, is kindof strange; WaPo doesn't usually have good polls, do they?  GO KAINE!!!!!

[Flying Dog]

The momentum is with kaine for the moment.

[tarheel-leftist85]

I about wet my pants when I saw Warner's JA
Anyway, if you look @ tradesports, kaine is +25.5 to slightly above 50 now!

[Flying Dog]

I about wet my pants when I saw Warner's JA
Anyway, if you look @ tradesports, kaine is +25.5 to slightly above 50 now!

Please dont say that. I am not yet used to getting my hopes up then having them crash and burn on election day.

[© tweed]

I about wet my pants when I saw Warner's JA

Lol.  VA term limits may be the single greatest reason the Republicans win in 2008.

[Moooooo]

Some polling info from the 2001 race (Warner vs Gilmore).

11/1    Times-Dispatch    +13
10/30    Mason-Dixon    +6
10/30    Roanoke    +9
10/25    WaPo    +10
10/17    Mason-Dixon    +3

The avg. of the polls above - 8.2%.  Come election day Warner won by 5%.  Like Ive said all along, Kaine needs to be up by around 3-4 come election day or he doesnt stand a chance.  Especially w/ the GOP's 72 hour plan in full effect.

[Flying Dog]

Some polling info from the 2001 race (Warner vs Gilmore).

11/1    Times-Dispatch    +13
10/30    Mason-Dixon    +6
10/30    Roanoke    +9
10/25    WaPo    +10
10/17    Mason-Dixon    +3

The avg. of those polls is 8.2%.  Come election day Warner won by 5%.  Like Ive said all along, Kaine needs to be up by around 3-4 come election day or he doesnt stand a chance.  Especially w/ the GOP's 72 hour plan in full effect.

Gop: LUCKS RUN OUT

[Jake]

Sure, luck may run out, but the GOTV plan that the GOP has in effect starting November 6th is as close to perfect as possible. Having been part of it last year, I can tell you that it is about as efficiently run as possible. If you have any reason why it will fail this year, I'd love to hear it.

[Max Power]

If you have any reason why it will fail this year, I'd love to hear it.

It's going to fail because we have Kayne West.

[minionofmidas]

Some polling info from the 2001 race (Warner vs Gilmore).

11/1    Times-Dispatch    +13
10/30    Mason-Dixon    +6
10/30    Roanoke    +9
10/25    WaPo    +10
10/17    Mason-Dixon    +3

The avg. of the polls above - 8.2%.  Come election day Warner won by 5%.  Like Ive said all along, Kaine needs to be up by around 3-4 come election day or he doesnt stand a chance.  Especially w/ the GOP's 72 hour plan in full effect.

Don't you mean he needs to be up by 3-4 points to have an over 50% chance?

[Democratic Hawk]

Kaine needs a consistent 3-4% lead

I agree but I'm pleased his favourables are better than Kilgore's

Dave

[Defarge]

Some polling info from the 2001 race (Warner vs Gilmore).

11/1    Times-Dispatch    +13
10/30    Mason-Dixon    +6
10/30    Roanoke    +9
10/25    WaPo    +10
10/17    Mason-Dixon    +3

The avg. of the polls above - 8.2%.  Come election day Warner won by 5%.  Like Ive said all along, Kaine needs to be up by around 3-4 come election day or he doesnt stand a chance.  Especially w/ the GOP's 72 hour plan in full effect.

You don't think that the expected Warner blowout didn't reduce Democratic turnout a bit?

[Alcon]

Some polling info from the 2001 race (Warner vs Gilmore).

11/1    Times-Dispatch    +13
10/30    Mason-Dixon    +6
10/30    Roanoke    +9
10/25    WaPo    +10
10/17    Mason-Dixon    +3

The avg. of the polls above - 8.2%.  Come election day Warner won by 5%.  Like Ive said all along, Kaine needs to be up by around 3-4 come election day or he doesnt stand a chance.  Especially w/ the GOP's 72 hour plan in full effect.

You don't think that the expected Warner blowout didn't reduce Democratic turnout a bit?

Mason-Dixon had +6.  If there's a Mason-Dixon poll, listen to Mason-Dixon.  That is pretty much my motto.

I have never seen an incidence where two polls were far from eachother, one of them is Mason-Dixon, and the other one is right.

Times-Dispatch has never been very good to my knowledge, Washington Post is pretty average, and I've never heard of Roanoke (I assume it's a newspaper?)

[Moooooo]

Definitely possible, but I credit Warners closer than expected victory to Republicans being underpolled in VA.

[Defarge]

Anybody know when Mason Dixon is coming out?

[minionofmidas]

Mason-Dixon had +6.  If there's a Mason-Dixon poll, listen to Mason-Dixon.  That is pretty much my motto.

I have never seen an incidence where two polls were far from eachother, one of them is Mason-Dixon, and the other one is right.

Minnesota presidential 2004?