MT-SEN 2020: Time for Bullock?

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https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1070187588361879552

HAPPENING

[Dr. Arch]

 

[CherokeeDem]

Seems like Senator Tester confirms that Gov. Bullock is running for the senate in 2020. This video is from a College Democrats event at American University in DC.


At about 47:45 a student asks Tester about Bullock running for the senate.

https://www.facebook.com/collegedemocrats/videos/369111437159625/
[very long URL truncated because it breaks page formatting --Mod.]

This pretty much makes this seat a tossup right?

[Xing]

I guess all of the #Populists are on the same wavelength, and know each others' next moves. Anyway, this is still unironically "big if true", but I wouldn't be too quick to write Daines off.

[Virginiá]

I guess all of the #Populists are on the same wavelength, and know each others' next moves. Anyway, this is still unironically "big if true", but I wouldn't be too quick to write Daines off.

Nonetheless, I think barring any new developments, he is our best shot. And given how Montana is, it's a better shot than other rural Republican-leaning states we have crashed and burned in.

[Don Vito Corleone]

So it seems Jacob on Demcord was right.

[lfromnj]

Likely r bordering on safe to tilt r. Bullock will need a dem friendly environment in 2020 but as an incumbent governor in a D friendly state he can win. He could run for president if he gets a solid record.

Also testers populism in leaking by accident is showing.

[MT Treasurer]

No surprise. If true, Tilt/Lean D.

[Lognog]

I get that it might not happen (lean R imo), but that would be amazing to have 2 dem senators from MT in this era of polarization.

[TML]

If Bullock can maintain a higher net approval rating than Daines, then he definitely has a shot. Morning Consult's most recent approval ratings from October 2018 has Bullock's net approval rating at +26 but Daines at just +2. Also remember that this year, Rick Scott (net approval rating +9) knocked off Bill Nelson (net approval rating -2) in Florida.

[MT Treasurer]

Not sure why Democrats are so bearish on Bullock's odds in this race. I honestly think this flips before NC/GA/IA/TX/AZ/etc. with Bullock running, though Gardner and maybe Jones are probably still more vulnerable than Daines. Bullock is a tougher opponent than Tester since he’s not only more popular but also doesn’t have a voting record that can be attacked.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Now all we need is for Orman to declare as a Dem against Roberts and Mark Begich in Alaska. Then the Democrats can dump insane amounts of money on the Atlas Red State Dem fetish, only to lose them all by 10% while GA, TX and AZ end up within the MoE Republican victories.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Now all we need is for Orman to declare as a Dem against Roberts and Mark Begich in Alaska. Then the Democrats can dump insane amounts of money on the Atlas Red State Dem fetish, only to lose them all by 10% while GA, TX and AZ end up within the MoE Republican victories.

No, we can't get a blue boner for Orman anymore. Put up somebody else like Josh Svaty and then we're talking.

Anyway, this is excellent news.

[lfromnj]

Now all we need is for Orman to declare as a Dem against Roberts and Mark Begich in Alaska. Then the Democrats can dump insane amounts of money on the Atlas Red State Dem fetish, only to lose them all by 10% while GA, TX and AZ end up within the MoE Republican victories.

I would consider Bullock competetive as he is a popular governor who is known widely and Montana just relected it's dem senator despite him being a fake blue dog who is basically a generic D and also the fact trump hates him. Incumbent governor's can win when fundamentally a normal candidate wouldn't. See florida and nh senate 2018 and 2016

[MT Treasurer]

Now all we need is for Orman to declare as a Dem against Roberts and Mark Begich in Alaska. Then the Democrats can dump insane amounts of money on the Atlas Red State Dem fetish, only to lose them all by 10% while GA, TX and AZ end up within the MoE Republican victories.

Orman and Begich probably wouldn’t win, but you’re way too overconfident if you seriously think this race won’t even be competitive or that Daines will win by double digits. It really reminds me of all the Democrats who thought that Rick Scott was just "spending away his kids' inheritance" with his Senate run.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I think anyone who is predicting auto wins and stack wipes in what is likely to be a Trump by 20% state is way too overconfident.

[lfromnj]

I think anyone who is predicting auto wins and stack wipes in what is likely to be a Trump by 20% state is way too overconfident.

Mt Treasurer is just panicking but you could even ask ice spear and he would admit it isn't safe r and he would be one the first to claimants. Red state race is safe r

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

This one is a heavy lift, but if anyone can do it, it's Bullock. Then again, I also said that about Bredesen. Yeah, this is more likely to flip than the senate race in 2018 in TN, but I would not hold my breath. Still would not be a surprise to see him win though. I used to think tilt D, now I am thinking weak lean R.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

FL is a swing state, Scott spent enormous sums of money to get Florida to behave normally in a bad election year. New Hampshire is as someone has repeatedly tried to pound into my head a blue state.

You guys are citing examples where the challenger was running with the tide or was able to turn the tide through a resource advantage.

We are talking about a state that nearly reelected a thoroughly corrupt Republican to the Senate in a landslide Democratic year and elected and then reelected another Republican to the House in another Democratic year, who had decided to get in his weight lifting via body slamming a reporter. Just two months ago people were calling Montana a horribly hopeless state because of this track record and now because Tester won, that suddenly is completely forgotten.

Montana is very unlikely to toss out an incumbent Republican Senator in a Presidential year. The example you should be looking at is Massachusetts 1996. Weld won 70% in 1994 for Governor and was super popular, but still couldn't beat a lame John Kerry with Clinton on top of the ticket getting 60% of the vote, and that was a far less polarized environment.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I think anyone who is predicting auto wins and stack wipes in what is likely to be a Trump by 20% state is way too overconfident.

Mt Treasurer is just panicking but you could even ask ice spear and he would admit it isn't safe r and he would be one the first to claimants. Red state race is safe r

I never said it was safe R.

[Tartarus Sauce]

I think anyone who is predicting auto wins and stack wipes in what is likely to be a Trump by 20% state is way too overconfident.

I'm actually skeptical he'll win it by 20% in 2020 because that's pretty much exactly how much he won it by in 2016 against the worst possible fit for the state. Just about any Democrat will put up a better performance than Clinton.

[MT Treasurer]

Rating it Tilt/Lean D isn’t the same as predicting an auto win, and most people (even Democrats) still think Daines is favored.

I think anyone who is predicting auto wins and stack wipes in what is likely to be a Trump by 20% state is way too overconfident.

Mt Treasurer is just panicking but you could even ask ice spear and he would admit it isn't safe r and he would be one the first to claimants. Red state race is safe r

I mean, not really. I’d never vote for Bullock over Daines in a Senate race, but the hubris and overconfidence of so many Republicans on this forum is really astounding. Let’s hope Daines and Young know better than to just shrug off Bullock's candidacy because Daines is the "incumbent" and Trump will win by 20% (very unlikely btw, I think the state will more likely than not trend Democratic in 2020, regardless of who the Democrats nominate).

[Virginiá]

FL is a swing state, Scott spent enormous sums of money to get Florida to behave normally in a bad election year. New Hampshire is as someone has repeatedly tried to pound into my head a blue state.

Everything else aside, Florida has a stubborn Republican lean. I don't think the reason for that this year was Scott's money either. He spent lavishly in 2010 and 2014 and yielded similar results. I'm not sure it's the best example for this question.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Rick Scott was the epitome of one of those who wins the primary and is expected to blow the seat. That was the narrative in 2010 and the only reason he is not on that list with Buck, O'Donnel and Angle is because of his money.

Rating it Tilt/Lean D isn’t the same as predicting an auto win, and most people (even Democrats) still think Daines is favored.

I think anyone who is predicting auto wins and stack wipes in what is likely to be a Trump by 20% state is way too overconfident.

Mt Treasurer is just panicking but you could even ask ice spear and he would admit it isn't safe r and he would be one the first to claimants. Red state race is safe r

I mean, not really. I’d never vote for Bullock over Daines in a Senate race, but the hubris and overconfidence of so many Republicans on this forum is really astounding. Let’s hope Daines and Young know better than to just shrug off Bullock's candidacy because Daines is the "incumbent" and Trump will win by 20% (very unlikely btw, I think the state will more likely than not trend Democratic in 2020, regardless of who the Democrats nominate).

Oh I fully expect them to "take it seriously" and that is why I think this is an uphill battle for Bullock.

[MT Treasurer]

Oh I fully expect them to "take it seriously" and that is why I think this is an uphill battle for Bullock.

Well, I certainly hope so. The NRSC definitely blew it in 2018 with their half-hearted and late effort after Rosendale had already been defined by a barrage of negative ads after a somewhat contentious primary. FWIW, I’m pretty sure that Daines will run a better campaign than Rosendale, but still, I really wouldn’t underestimate Bullock. If we were talking about AR, TN, or ND here, yeah, I’d feel a lot more confident about our chances, but Montana is a lot more Democratic than most other red states and Daines isn’t exactly the strongest incumbent.

This is off-topic, but what are the races you’re most worried about in 2020? For me it’s AZ, CO, NC, GA, MT, and TX. I’m a little more bullish on Republican odds in ME and IA than everyone else.