Is Wisconsin still trending Republican?
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  Is Wisconsin still trending Republican?
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Author Topic: Is Wisconsin still trending Republican?  (Read 3614 times)
swords
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« Reply #25 on: December 18, 2018, 05:55:42 AM »
« edited: December 18, 2018, 06:19:29 AM by swords »


Fox News 2018 Voter Analysis

Fox News has launched an improved approach for analyzing Americans’ priorities and vote preferences on Election Day. The Fox News Voter Analysis combines survey data from NORC at the University of Chicago with voting results from The Associated Press. As more people vote early or by mail, the new method overcomes the limitations of in-person exit polls and captures the views of all Americans by integrating probability-based, state-by-state surveys with a massive online poll. The FNVA survey will show results from all 47 states in which there is a contested statewide election this November.

Sorry, you have not had a minimum of 20 posts in order to include links <- which bothers me
so google fox news voter analysis 2018

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis?filter=WI&type=G

WI Gov
                                      Total      Evers      Walker
Democrat/Lean Dem       43%       95%         4%
Republican/Lean ReP      45%        6%        93%
Independent                  13%       51%       42%


You can see Now Wisconsin is a R +2% State (in D +9% Blue Wave Year)
Evers carried WI by Independent and Blue Wave.
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Wazza [INACTIVE]
Wazza1901
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« Reply #26 on: January 06, 2019, 10:58:23 AM »

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brucejoel99
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« Reply #27 on: January 06, 2019, 06:53:57 PM »

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Politician
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #28 on: January 06, 2019, 07:36:15 PM »

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Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
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« Reply #29 on: January 07, 2019, 03:56:21 PM »

Wisconsin is trending towards complete polarization, with neither side gaining any advantage. Dane County is now ridiculously Democratic, with a significant number of white Evangelicals voting blue. Meanwhile, the traditionally blue western rural part of the state has taken a hard turn right, and you will not find a single Democrat in rural eastern Wisconsin.

The urban/rural divide has taken over the state, with taxes, land use, and guns being the big polarizing factors. But it seems to be maintaining an overall balance.
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Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #30 on: January 08, 2019, 09:25:05 AM »


Riiiiiiight.

Muh OH is now MO,
Muh CT is now swing because random statistical noise,
Muh VA is still a battleground,
Muh OR is swing because 2000 and because white people...
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Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
Junior Chimp
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E: -2.77, S: -8.78

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« Reply #31 on: January 08, 2019, 09:30:58 AM »


https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis?filter=WI&type=G

WI Gov
                                      Total      Evers      Walker
Democrat/Lean Dem       43%       95%         4%
Republican/Lean ReP      45%        6%        93%
Independent                  13%       51%       42%


You can see Now Wisconsin is a R +2% State (in D +9% Blue Wave Year)
Evers carried WI by Independent and Blue Wave.


1. The partisan battle over state issues of taxation, workers rights, and natural resource management have little to do how WI votes in national elections.

2. Recent history demonstrates that there often huge gaps between presidential margin and senatorial, gubernatorial, and state legislator margins.

3. WI has a tradition of independent Republicanism, which continues through to today.

4. (And probably most important): party ID is a terrible way to judge the partisan lean of the state with respect to the nation.
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Scottholes 2.0
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« Reply #32 on: January 08, 2019, 05:53:08 PM »

This article states that the D trends in the Milwaukee and Madison metros and the R trends in the rural parts of the state have been cancelling each other out. The partisan lean of Brown County and the Fox Valley has remained virtually unchanged, which is also helping keep Wisconsin purple.

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/blogs/wisconsin-voter/2018/11/30/wisconsin-undergoes-political-shifts-while-somehow-staying-purple/2160683002/

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