Can/how does a Republican win Delaware?
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  Can/how does a Republican win Delaware?
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Author Topic: Can/how does a Republican win Delaware?  (Read 1800 times)
Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver
freethinkingindy
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« on: December 01, 2018, 11:27:43 AM »

Is New Castle County's strong D lean enough to make this state gone for the GOP in statewide elections for the foreseeable future? What would a Republican have to do to narrow the margins here enough to win statewide (in addition to winning Kent and Sussex by large margins)?
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TML
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« Reply #1 on: December 01, 2018, 12:00:45 PM »

An analysis of the last statewide wins by Republicans at all levels indicate that all of them involved winning New Castle County outright.

The main key for Republicans to win DE back is for them to broaden their appeal beyond “angry white men.”
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
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« Reply #2 on: December 02, 2018, 01:20:12 PM »

DE is actually getting scarily close. I can see it flipping in the next R-wave midterm.
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Strudelcutie4427
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« Reply #3 on: December 03, 2018, 12:30:28 AM »

Get alot of NJ and MD conservatives to move to Sussex County
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #4 on: December 03, 2018, 11:36:51 AM »

Delaware is trending R. But for now, New Castle is too much. They really need to win Sussex with 70 and Kent with 55, but even then they can't do as poorly as they are doing in new castle.

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wbrocks67
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« Reply #5 on: December 03, 2018, 11:58:35 AM »

I'm sorry, how is DE trending R in any way, shape, or form?

The worst performance was arguably the Prez, and that was probably more of a Hillary problem than anything else. Rochester won by 15% in 2016. She nearly won by 30% in 2018 (House race). Not to mention Carper winning by 22% in the Senate race.

2018 Senate - D 60% - R 38%
2018 House at Large - D 64.5% - R 35.5%

2016 Prez - D 53% - R 42%
2016 Gov - D 58% - R 39%
2016 House at Large - D 56% - R 41%
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Orser67
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« Reply #6 on: December 03, 2018, 01:41:23 PM »

Is New Castle County's strong D lean enough to make this state gone for the GOP in statewide elections for the foreseeable future?

Barring an R+10 environment, yes.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
Progress96
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« Reply #7 on: December 03, 2018, 08:30:14 PM »

I'm sorry, how is DE trending R in any way, shape, or form?

The worst performance was arguably the Prez, and that was probably more of a Hillary problem than anything else. Rochester won by 15% in 2016. She nearly won by 30% in 2018 (House race). Not to mention Carper winning by 22% in the Senate race.

2018 Senate - D 60% - R 38%
2018 House at Large - D 64.5% - R 35.5%

2016 Prez - D 53% - R 42%
2016 Gov - D 58% - R 39%
2016 House at Large - D 56% - R 41%
Sussex county is growing at a rapid rate and is the most republican county in the state. And the black population is declining and it is becoming more white, unlike most areas of the U.S. Then again, Kent is becoming less white, but I still think Dems have hit their max in Delaware. Won't voter D in 2020 or 2024 but it's so small and since R's do well in less populated states, I can't see why GOP wouldn't try here in 2028 or later
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Flyersfan232
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« Reply #8 on: January 02, 2019, 09:11:03 AM »

An analysis of the last statewide wins by Republicans at all levels indicate that all of them involved winning New Castle County outright.

The main key for Republicans to win DE back is for them to broaden their appeal beyond “angry white men.”
could a populist republican who is libertarian socially win a house governor senate or presidential election in de
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Flyersfan232
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« Reply #9 on: January 02, 2019, 09:13:12 AM »

I'm sorry, how is DE trending R in any way, shape, or form?

The worst performance was arguably the Prez, and that was probably more of a Hillary problem than anything else. Rochester won by 15% in 2016. She nearly won by 30% in 2018 (House race). Not to mention Carper winning by 22% in the Senate race.

2018 Senate - D 60% - R 38%
2018 House at Large - D 64.5% - R 35.5%

2016 Prez - D 53% - R 42%
2016 Gov - D 58% - R 39%
2016 House at Large - D 56% - R 41%
you forgetting it was a wave year this year.
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I Will Not Be Wrong
outofbox6
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« Reply #10 on: January 02, 2019, 12:30:02 PM »

https://news.gallup.com/poll/226730/conservative-leaning-states-drop.aspx

Yikes for Republicans, but perhaps this is because of Biden?
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #11 on: January 02, 2019, 12:56:47 PM »

Is New Castle County's strong D lean enough to make this state gone for the GOP in statewide elections for the foreseeable future?

Barring an R+10 environment, yes.

This, + a sane R candidate
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NCJeff
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« Reply #12 on: January 04, 2019, 01:36:23 AM »

I'm sorry, how is DE trending R in any way, shape, or form?

The worst performance was arguably the Prez, and that was probably more of a Hillary problem than anything else. Rochester won by 15% in 2016. She nearly won by 30% in 2018 (House race). Not to mention Carper winning by 22% in the Senate race.

2018 Senate - D 60% - R 38%
2018 House at Large - D 64.5% - R 35.5%

2016 Prez - D 53% - R 42%
2016 Gov - D 58% - R 39%
2016 House at Large - D 56% - R 41%
Sussex county is growing at a rapid rate and is the most republican county in the state. And the black population is declining and it is becoming more white, unlike most areas of the U.S. Then again, Kent is becoming less white, but I still think Dems have hit their max in Delaware. Won't voter D in 2020 or 2024 but it's so small and since R's do well in less populated states, I can't see why GOP wouldn't try here in 2028 or later

Yes, but New Castle County's whites aren't that Republican. Correct me if I'm wrong, but a lot of suburban Wilmington is like Chester County, PA, fairly wealthy and trending Democratic. And it's smack dab in the middle of the Boston-DC corridor so growth isn't out of the question. I don't see Delaware becoming even remotely swingy anytime soon.

This.  The mid-Atlantic corridor is heavily urban/suburban and that isn't going to change.  Regardless of the racial breakdown, this region is going to stay heavily dem.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #13 on: January 04, 2019, 11:39:34 AM »

A third party candidate who runs on a liberal platform and split the liberal vote
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DabbingSanta
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« Reply #14 on: January 04, 2019, 11:27:49 PM »

The last Republican to win in Delaware was Senator Roth in 1994. He lost in 2000 to Tom Carper. At the presidential level, Bush won the state in 1988. In both victories, all three counties were won by the Republican. Despite winning two of three counties in 1992, 2000, 2004, and 2016, Republicans lost New Castle County by double digits and thus failed to carry the state. It appears any path to victory for the GOP would include winning or at least vastly narrowing the Democrat margin in New Castle, where 60 percent of Delawareans reside. Given the current political climate, I don't think Delaware will be obtainable in the near future.
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Flyersfan232
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« Reply #15 on: January 08, 2019, 12:14:23 PM »

I'm sorry, how is DE trending R in any way, shape, or form?

The worst performance was arguably the Prez, and that was probably more of a Hillary problem than anything else. Rochester won by 15% in 2016. She nearly won by 30% in 2018 (House race). Not to mention Carper winning by 22% in the Senate race.

2018 Senate - D 60% - R 38%
2018 House at Large - D 64.5% - R 35.5%

2016 Prez - D 53% - R 42%
2016 Gov - D 58% - R 39%
2016 House at Large - D 56% - R 41%
Sussex county is growing at a rapid rate and is the most republican county in the state. And the black population is declining and it is becoming more white, unlike most areas of the U.S. Then again, Kent is becoming less white, but I still think Dems have hit their max in Delaware. Won't voter D in 2020 or 2024 but it's so small and since R's do well in less populated states, I can't see why GOP wouldn't try here in 2028 or later
what about ct?
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MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
Kalwejt
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« Reply #16 on: January 08, 2019, 01:15:24 PM »

The last Republican to win in Delaware was Senator Roth in 1994. He lost in 2000 to Tom Carper.

Actually due to Delaware having at-large congressional district, the last Republican to win a federal statewide election would be Mike Castle in 2008.

As of state offices, the last one was Ken Simpler in 2014 (State treasurer).
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