Indictment-O-Rama, Act 3: Cohen Up the River

[forgotten manatee]

Roger Stone is yet another of dozens of examples of unbridled loyalty to Trump biting someone in the ass in the future. Sure, him, Manafort, and others may have remained loyal in the hopes of a pardon fro Trump, meaning that they can have their cake and eat it too when it comes to being a criminal, but is that really any way to live? It's not even a guarantee anyway, especially with the shadow of impeachment over Trump.

When will other Republicans and Trump sycophants finally learn? Protecting this man is not worth it! Cut your damn losses already!

Seriously, its mindblowing that the GOP continues to debase itself, and our precious institutions and norms continue to be undermined.. by Donald Trump of all people. Its madness. Just get him out!

[The_Doctor]

At this point, I want to know how close Rudy Giuliani is to indictment for his unhinged stupidity and buttdialing people and freakouts. It is painfully obvious Rudy Giuliani is imprinting his emotional drama on the national pysche in a bid to get over whatever is bothering him. This is not the first time he's done this (see his bid for NY Senate in 1999).

[Frodo]

I'm desperate enough for Trump to leave that I am willing to put up with four to five years (depending on if and when Trump steps down) of a President Mike Pence.  Assuming he can win election in his own right next year, which I'm not ruling out. 

[Progressive Pessimist]

I'm desperate enough for Trump to leave that I am willing to put up with four to five years (depending on if and when Trump steps down) of a President Mike Pence.  Assuming he can win election in his own right next year, which I'm not ruling out. 

Me too, there is no way it can be as bad as having Trump as President. At least things will be less volatile and existentially dreadful feeling.

I also think that Pence would be easier to beat in the general election than Trump would.

[GP270watch]

  The judges Pence would appoint could not be any worse than Trump's bottom of the barrel picks.

[Frodo]

I'm desperate enough for Trump to leave that I am willing to put up with four to five years (depending on if and when Trump steps down) of a President Mike Pence.  Assuming he can win election in his own right next year, which I'm not ruling out.  

Me too, there is no way it can be as bad as having Trump as President. At least things will be less volatile and existentially dreadful feeling.

I also think that Pence would be easier to beat in the general election than Trump would.

I am inclined to think the opposite, especially if he consolidates his support with Trump's base while at the same time reassuring the Republican establishment that he will be the saner, more intelligent version of Trump while carrying out much the same policies.  And in the general election, there will be just so much of a sense of relief of Trump being gone that most people outside the hardcore Democratic base will give Pence the benefit of the doubt.  It will still be a hard-fought and close election with Pence likely winning the electoral college but losing the popular vote.  But even if he does win, I won't have any doubts as to his patriotism, that everything he will be doing will be done with the intent of defending the interests of the United States.  Even if I disagree with him.  So I will be more than happy to bite the bullet.  He will still be hamstrung by a Democratic House and a closely divided Senate. 

[OSR stands with Israel]

I maintain that the GOP is posturing right now. The rubber meeting the road will be when the House impeaches and the GOP Senate is forced to deal with it. I may be wrong (wouldn't be the first time) but I believe the GOP is bluffing with a pair of 27 and pretending they hold Queens. I think they're bluffing to see how much the wall of support holds.

I also repeat that I think Trump's impeachment will force the Republican Senate to shoulder the consequences for tolerating Trump in an official sanction (which the GOP hasn't been enthusiastic about doing). I think that would be a bridge that holds too much peril for Senate Republicans in light of what might emerge as revelations post-impeachment. Essentially, do they want to exonerate Trump and then watch as the various criminal cases around him come closer, thus making their decision look extremely stupid in hindsight? (I don't think so).

They can't convict him but I think they can't keep him. And I think that everyone should bear (as pertaining to this thread) the indictments and convictions of people (to wit Roger Stone) around Trump and the ongoing drip drip of news that tie Trump to WikiLeaks, various scandals, and issues. Trump is a 24/7 one man wrecking ball of scandal that will not slow down. I think that presents some of the biggest dangers to Trump.

Again: I think that Louisiana and Kentucky proved Trump is not good at pulling Republicans across the finish line. He may survive a three way race but many, many Republicans are going to two way races in 2020 and 2022.

Lastly, I am going to just notice that the Democrats have held their fire on Pence which makes me think the Democrats realize they can't allow Pelosi to become President (because of how the GOP Senate would react). I think Pelosi's serious about removing Trump and would not have taken this step without intending to complete it.

In theory, the economy should hold up well enough for the GOP to switch out presidents but the conditions for this would require Trump to step down and Pence to quickly move in.

If its Pence vs Warren or Sanders you are right and he wins, but I cant see him beating Biden.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I'm desperate enough for Trump to leave that I am willing to put up with four to five years (depending on if and when Trump steps down) of a President Mike Pence.  Assuming he can win election in his own right next year, which I'm not ruling out.  

Me too, there is no way it can be as bad as having Trump as President. At least things will be less volatile and existentially dreadful feeling.

I also think that Pence would be easier to beat in the general election than Trump would.

I am inclined to think the opposite, especially if he consolidates his support with Trump's base while at the same time reassuring the Republican establishment that he will be the saner, more intelligent version of Trump while carrying out much the same policies.  And in the general election, there will be just so much of a sense of relief of Trump being gone that most people outside the hardcore Democratic base will give Pence the benefit of the doubt.  It will still be a hard-fought and close election with Pence likely winning the electoral college but losing the popular vote.  But even if he does win, I won't have any doubts as to his patriotism, that everything he will be doing will be done with the intent of defending the interests of the United States.  Even if I disagree with him.  So I will be more than happy to bite the bullet.  He will still be hamstrung by a Democratic House and a closely divided Senate. 

Those are fair points, but if I can elaborate, to me Pence would still have some major weaknesses, possibly ones that are worse for him than for Trump: there is no guarantee that he could inherit the Trump fanatics and keep them engaged, he is far too generic and uncharismatic. There is also no guarantee that he can win back suburban voters or other swing voters that are repulsed by Trump, he is still very conservative, particularly with social issues, and still very much tied to Trump. I also don't think he'll be able to claim ownership of the economy in its current state, which immediately removes what could be a major boon to him. He isn't the effective bulls***ter that Trump often is. And finally, I expect that the Democratic base would still be as engaged as ever, especially considering Pence's stalwart evangelical sensibilities.

[Badger]

Also: Stone is going to jail, minimum for a year, unless Trump pardons him in a resignation flurry. His conviction is February 6. (Reagan's birthday!)

Trump cannot politically pardon him until after the election. So Stone will be spending time in jail. I don't think Stone squeals but also, if Stone is pardoned, Stone no longer has the protections of the Fifth Amendment to protect against testifying. (Though, how that plays out is a little weirder).

The tax returns, I think, have a good chance of becoming public by June 2020. I don't think the Supreme Court wants to be seen as Trump's lackey 5 months before an election. Roberts has this habit of being deeply worried about the Court's legitimacy and with the Democrats threatening to pack the Court, I do not think John Roberts wants to give them a ready made talking point against the Court in 2021.

Do I think there's a lot of stuff in the tax returns that are incriminating? Maybe, maybe not. Mueller had access to them and never said much about them. But they are probably politically problematic because they would show the range of Trump's worldwide holdings and be a potent point in explaining how his Presidency has benefited foreign leaders because of various Trump dealings. (Remember, post 2006, Trump went on a spree of inking deals around the world for franchising the Trump brand).

Tl;dr: The President is generally an idiot who will walk into every political and legal minefield with the intent to test the strength of these landmines and cause the people defending him massive problems. This idiocy is both borne of ignorance and willful desire to act in this fashion.

I wonder if he would have the same immunity if his sentence is merely commuted

[Silent Hunter]

Can we change this to "Stone Goes Down"?

[Progressive Pessimist]

Can we change this to "Stone Goes Down"?

Or "Sinking Like a Stone."

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1197326272076156939

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/yashar/status/1199063305157062657

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/emptywheel/status/1199456090896977922

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Russia probe witness charged with funneling millions to Hillary Clinton's 2016 campaign

A businessman who helped broker a meeting between an ally of President Donald Trump and an official of the Russian government has been indicted for allegedly funneling millions in illegal campaign contributions to support Hillary Clinton’s 2016 presidential campaign.

George Nader, who was charged in another case earlier this year with child trafficking and transporting child pornography, was one of seven people named in an indictment unsealed in Washington, D.C. on Tuesday night involving the campaign payments.

[Crumpets]

Russia probe witness charged with funneling millions to Hillary Clinton's 2016 campaign

A businessman who helped broker a meeting between an ally of President Donald Trump and an official of the Russian government has been indicted for allegedly funneling millions in illegal campaign contributions to support Hillary Clinton’s 2016 presidential campaign.

George Nader, who was charged in another case earlier this year with child trafficking and transporting child pornography, was one of seven people named in an indictment unsealed in Washington, D.C. on Tuesday night involving the campaign payments.

What a twist!

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/bradheath/status/1217259370876149760

[QAnonKelly]

https://twitter.com/bradheath/status/1217259370876149760

He’d be out of prison by now if he just sucked it up

[emailking]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1227109357726445568
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1227122206783811585

[Crumpets]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1227109357726445568
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1227122206783811585

Trump is too weak and cowardly to try to do anything about those "crimes on the other side" or "miscarriage of justice." Over three years into his presidency and Hillary Clinton is still a free woman. Even while he lets Democrats have their way and lock up Stone and Manafort. Sad!

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1227122206783811585

One promise the Whiner-in-Chief is living up to.

“We’re going to whine. We’re going to whine so much. We’re going to whine at trade, we’re going to whine at the border. We’re going to whine so much, you’re going to be so sick and tired of whining, you’re going to come to me and go ‘Please, please, we can’t take any more whining.’"

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/GregoryABrower/status/1227219242216497153

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/JakeBGibson/status/1227271189346816000
Lol our country is dead

[emailking]

I guess they figured if they stick with 9 then Trump will just commute it.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ktbenner/status/1227322039385628679
So long DOJ independency