Betomania Megathread: "Mr. Trumpachev, Tear Down This Wall!"

[Bidenworth2020]

Chris Matthews feels a thrill going up his leg for Beto.


Chris Matthews: Beto O’Rourke should run for president

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Oh God, why won't that clown just STFU?

lol. Why do you not like Beto?

[Oryxslayer]

Chris Matthews feels a thrill going up his leg for Beto.


Chris Matthews: Beto O’Rourke should run for president

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Oh God, why won't that clown just STFU?

lol. Why do you not like Beto?

I interpreted that statement as targeted towards Matthews.

[Comrade Funk]

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/06/beto-orourke-aides-talking-to-obama-operatives-in-iowa-new-hampshire.html

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[NYSforKennedy2024]

A THRILL, BROTHER.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/lmcgaughy/status/1070872773805907968

Beto just might want to stick around for the senate race

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Beto is obviously going to run. LOL at everyone who is still insisting that he is not going to run.

If Julian Castro knows what is good for him, he will drop out of the Presidential race before it even gets started and run for Senate instead, and then ride Beto's coattails into the Senate. If he waits around before announcing his Senate run, Hegar may beat him to it.


https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/dems-primary-debate-may

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[lfromnj]

Beto is obviously going to run. LOL at everyone who is still insisting that he is not going to run.

If Julian Castro knows what is good for him, he will drop out of the Presidential race before it even gets started and run for Senate instead, and then ride Beto's coattails into the Senate. If he waits around before announcing his Senate run, Hegar may beat him to it.


https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/dems-primary-debate-may

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Hegar should run
Screw Julian "me and my brother only run for safe stuff" Castro. He is a completely overrated candidate. I would expect a candidate who wants to appeal to hispanics to know spanish. Hegar actually hit Beto levels in her margin only falling behind by half a point. Its clear that a female veteran is a strong candidate compared to some idiot who thinks he can be president.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

We know that Beto will raise huge amounts from small donors, but he is also now lining up the big money bundlers.

Beto O'Rourke lands big Obama fundraiser

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[CookieDamage]

We know that Beto will raise huge amounts from small donors, but he is also now lining up the big money bundlers.

Beto O'Rourke lands big Obama fundraiser

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Corporate money?

[politicallefty]

If he runs, he’s got my vote and support. I’ve had friends and family mention him. There’s something there, very reminiscent of Obama. Historically, Democrats win by running young, exciting, energetic optimists. I think Beto can win the nomination and I think he can beat Trump.

[Shadows]

I don't know if Beto will be able to raise huge money. Most of his donations came because he ran as a progressive type vs ted freaking Cruz & many of his donors are Warren & Sanders supporters & can support him for Senate but not President.

And then his bad record on trade & many other areas which makes him unelectable in the Electoral College along him being an unqualified lightweight who was a recent loser. When was the last time in a 100 years that a Dem Nominee was not a Senator or a Governor.

[politicallefty]

I don't know if Beto will be able to raise huge money. Most of his donations came because he ran as a progressive type vs ted freaking Cruz & many of his donors are Warren & Sanders supporters & can support him for Senate but not President.

And then his bad record on trade & many other areas which makes him unelectable in the Electoral College along him being an unqualified lightweight who was a recent loser. When was the last time in a 100 years that a Dem Nominee was not a Senator or a Governor.

I don’t agree. Not everyone is going to run. Warren may, but I doubt Bernie. I have no reason to doubt his abilities on the money front.

The issues are what he’d be offering in 2020, not past issues. The Democratic base has never had such purity tests, let alone ones against the last incumbent President. Being unlectable in the Electoral College really hurt Trump, didn’t it? He was polling at what, like 20-25 points behind Hillary in 2015? The Blue Wall would never allow it!

If Democrats fall into the trap of “experience and electability”, Trump may very well win reelection. Experience really does not matter to the average voter, not to mention there’s no such thing as experience compared to what the job really entails. I’m not saying Beto is the only candidate, but he does possess a lot of the qualities Democrats need to take back the White House. A lot of what I hear about him is anecdotal, but the people I’ve talked to aren’t from Texas. They know about Beto and are very interested.

[Spiffy]

Elizabeth Warren’s former campaign manager meeting with Beto.

https://twitter.com/tracyjan/status/1071353974945710080?s=21

[RI]

If he runs, he’s got my vote and support. I’ve had friends and family mention him. There’s something there, very reminiscent of Obama. Historically, Democrats win by running young, exciting, energetic optimists. I think Beto can win the nomination and I think he can beat Trump.

That O'Rourke has superficial similarities to Obama is not as great of a thing as people keep mentioning.

First, Obama only narrowly won the nomination in 2008, and never could have done so without the near-unanimous support of the black population post-Iowa. O'Rourke has no such bedrock group which comprises a huge proportion of the electorate. Polling shows O'Rourke is doing much worse with Hispanics nationally than this forum likes to think, and blacks certainly aren't going to line up behind him in the primary. A white version of Obama is only viable in a highly fractured primary environment. Obama also got very lucky in the general election. The financial collapse in September and the disastrous Palin VP selection doomed McCain, but otherwise the race was neck-and-neck before, even with the unpopular Bush running. The "Obama coalition" that many tout in 2008 came to him as much by factors outside his control as due to his own qualities. Unless O'Rourke is similarly lucky, he'll have a hard time constructing a coalition which resembles Obama's in either composition or scale.

Second, Obama's presidency caused many to sour on the Obama-style resume; that Obama won now makes O'Rourke winning less likely. We now have recent experience with a charismatic but inexperienced candidate becoming president, and many now see the flaws in electing someone like that. Being stylistically similar to Obama certainly won't win back the right or WWC voters who bolted following Obama's term. The left especially should be able to see how inexperience translates into the inability to convert campaign promises into real and sweeping changes, and O'Rourke would almost certainly face a much more hostile Congress than Obama did.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

NYT exhibiting symptoms of Betomania -

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/09/us/politics/beto-2020-presidential-race.html

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[LabourJersey]

If he runs, he’s got my vote and support. I’ve had friends and family mention him. There’s something there, very reminiscent of Obama. Historically, Democrats win by running young, exciting, energetic optimists. I think Beto can win the nomination and I think he can beat Trump.

That O'Rourke has superficial similarities to Obama is not as great of a thing as people keep mentioning.

First, Obama only narrowly won the nomination in 2008, and never could have done so without the near-unanimous support of the black population post-Iowa. O'Rourke has no such bedrock group which comprises a huge proportion of the electorate. Polling shows O'Rourke is doing much worse with Hispanics nationally than this forum likes to think, and blacks certainly aren't going to line up behind him in the primary. A white version of Obama is only viable in a highly fractured primary environment. Obama also got very lucky in the general election. The financial collapse in September and the disastrous Palin VP selection doomed McCain, but otherwise the race was neck-and-neck before, even with the unpopular Bush running. The "Obama coalition" that many tout in 2008 came to him as much by factors outside his control as due to his own qualities. Unless O'Rourke is similarly lucky, he'll have a hard time constructing a coalition which resembles Obama's in either composition or scale.

Second, Obama's presidency caused many to sour on the Obama-style resume; that Obama won now makes O'Rourke winning less likely. We now have recent experience with a charismatic but inexperienced candidate becoming president, and many now see the flaws in electing someone like that. Being stylistically similar to Obama certainly won't win back the right or WWC voters who bolted following Obama's term. The left especially should be able to see how inexperience translates into the inability to convert campaign promises into real and sweeping changes, and O'Rourke would almost certainly face a much more hostile Congress than Obama did.

This is a thoughtful post, and I agree that having African American voters is an essential part of any candidate's coalition to win a Democratic nomination.

However I think that the primary is going to be fractured considerably, and the people with the most name recognition or "viral intensity" as one journalist put it will be at the top of the field.

I don't know if Beto will be the nominee--I think the primary-within-a-primary for AA voters will determine how the general primary goes--but I think if he can keep some of this momentum up he will be one of the last candidates standing.

[lfromnj]

If booker runs he can probably win African Americans but Harris has few connections to them.

[Grassroots]

At least he's moralistic, believes in deficit reduction and fiscal responsibility, and doesn't rely on identity politics like most other dems. If he comes just a tad bit right of center after the nomination, assuming that even happens, then I will think about voting for him.

[I Can Now Die Happy]

Beta is seriously the biggest threat to us winning in 2020 and honestly that's ****in scary!

[Spiffy]

👀

https://twitter.com/thirdwaytweet/status/1052922247646720002?s=21

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

👀

https://twitter.com/thirdwaytweet/status/1052922247646720002?s=21

No surprise that 3rd way loves a New Democrat.

[Old Man Willow]

Beto could betray progressives like Obama and not fight for single payer, it's a huge possibility. But I'm not going to throw him in with "someone should tell my staff I support MFA" Kamala and the other corporate trash. He hasn't just endorsed it as a sound bite, he's actually made the case for it and will have to face angry primary voters in 2024 if he doesn't fight for it. I'm willing to look past other issues he may be too moderate on because healthcare is the most important issue right now, and the more progressive candidates are too flawed. So, the third way endorsement doesn't bother me that much.

[Landslide Lyndon]

👀

https://twitter.com/thirdwaytweet/status/1052922247646720002?s=21

Are we sure this is a centrist group? I saw their feed and they seem to be a typical Democratic group/think tank. They even endorsed Pelosi for speaker.

[Zaybay]

If he runs, he’s got my vote and support. I’ve had friends and family mention him. There’s something there, very reminiscent of Obama. Historically, Democrats win by running young, exciting, energetic optimists. I think Beto can win the nomination and I think he can beat Trump.

That O'Rourke has superficial similarities to Obama is not as great of a thing as people keep mentioning.

First, Obama only narrowly won the nomination in 2008, and never could have done so without the near-unanimous support of the black population post-Iowa. O'Rourke has no such bedrock group which comprises a huge proportion of the electorate. Polling shows O'Rourke is doing much worse with Hispanics nationally than this forum likes to think, and blacks certainly aren't going to line up behind him in the primary.

I think you nail it right here on Beto's big problem in the primary. He lacks a base to keep him relevant. Sure, he has TX, but past that, he lacks a key demographic or group of states to keep him in the running. Hes unlikely to win the AA vote, so he wont take the Deep South, nor is he likely to win the more Rural Dem vote(which usually goes to the Leftie), so he cant take the plain states. Not only that, without a solid bedrock base, he has no real floor. If Harris or Bernie say something wrong, or have some kind of mishap, they can rebound, for they have a bedrock base, Beto cannot. Beto can really only win when people are forced towards him, basically, he has to be one on one from the beginning, which is a huge problem, since 2020 is unlikely to have a small primary.

[lfromnj]

If he runs, he’s got my vote and support. I’ve had friends and family mention him. There’s something there, very reminiscent of Obama. Historically, Democrats win by running young, exciting, energetic optimists. I think Beto can win the nomination and I think he can beat Trump.

That O'Rourke has superficial similarities to Obama is not as great of a thing as people keep mentioning.

First, Obama only narrowly won the nomination in 2008, and never could have done so without the near-unanimous support of the black population post-Iowa. O'Rourke has no such bedrock group which comprises a huge proportion of the electorate. Polling shows O'Rourke is doing much worse with Hispanics nationally than this forum likes to think, and blacks certainly aren't going to line up behind him in the primary.

I think you nail it right here on Beto's big problem in the primary. He lacks a base to keep him relevant. Sure, he has TX, but past that, he lacks a key demographic or group of states to keep him in the running. Hes unlikely to win the AA vote, so he wont take the Deep South, nor is he likely to win the more Rural Dem vote(which usually goes to the Leftie), so he cant take the plain states. Not only that, without a solid bedrock base, he has no real floor. If Harris or Bernie say something wrong, or have some kind of mishap, they can rebound, for they have a bedrock base, Beto cannot. Beto can really only win when people are forced towards him, basically, he has to be one on one from the beginning, which is a huge problem, since 2020 is unlikely to have a small primary.

He may have had a trouble with hispanics in hte Texas primary but that was because he barely campaigned to win the primary. Its also clear the fact that a white guy managed to oust a 8 term hispanic incumbent in a 80% hispanic district shows that he can appeal to hispanics. I can't think of any other scenario where a minority lost their majority minority district to a white person.