Predict the 2019 elections

[Peter Moon]

Mississippi
I believe Mississippi is basically Ohio right now. There is a chance a Democrat could win it, but that chance is very small. There need to be several factors that ensure a Democratic upset there:
1. The Republicans/Republican supporters/voters need to either not vote for their candidate or not vote at all. This could result in an upset.
2. Democratic support: The Democratic candidate needs to appeal to more people than his party is right now. Mississippi isn’t just filled with “racist southerners”. The Democrat needs to galvanize more support, or he needs to draw support from his Republican opponent.
3. Lower turnout: This goes into 1, but it’s a fact. Turnout can decide an election no matter what other factors are at play. LA almost could have gone red if all Republicans who voted went for a single candidate instead of splitting the vote in half. If Democrats want to win a state like Mississippi, they need to get out their base to vote.

Overall, I think this state has very little chance of flipping.

Louisiana
Louisiana almost went Red this last election. Edwards only avoided being thrown out because the Republicans split their vote. If every Republican were to vote for Eddie on their next election night and didn’t care about political differences, the state has a large if not certain chance of going red. Edwards could get his support up though, and that is seemingly unlikely to happen. He got nearly 9 or so less points this election around, which is a very large drop in voter support. If one wants to argue how this election favored Republicans, then let’s discuss that:
1. Date/Time: The election was held on a weekend, the day most if not all working people have off. If this election were held on a weekday, the argument of “voter suppression” would hold more ground.
2. Candidate choice: Democrats seemed to unify behind Edwards more than any other candidate, so the argument that other Dems and third party voters are to blame for a loss is very loose, since the total combined vote of non-Edwards candidates (excluding the Republicans) is about 1.6-1.7, which was not enough for an Edwards victory after adding that.
3. Next Date/Time: From what I’ve heard, the next election will be held in November. If this is true, and it is held on Election Day, then there is little probabilities that Edwards will win a high amount of support. The whole reason Democrats complain about elections is that they supposedly don’t help young people with the laws in place and other attributes. So, if their argument is to be believed, then yes, a Republican victory is most certainly probable. Still a little unlikely, but definitely a possibility.

Kentucky

While Bevin seems quite unpopular, I think that the state itself isn’t trending blue. Yes, an unpopular governor can affect support, but tell that to Oregon and Wisconsin. Both Governors weren’t the most popular, but that didn’t mean a complete upset. Walker lost in WI mainly because of a lack of turnout by Republicans or even flips by those Republican voters. Oregon still elected another Democrat despite the governor having lower support. Support in the KY race may be a good prediction tool, but it is not going to determine the outcome.
Another myth some may come up with is that “because liberal states elect Republicans, conservative states can elect Democrats”. There is a problem with this argument. The idea that liberal states elect Republicans is a true statement one can make, but one needs to know what kind of candidates these are. Charlie Baker, Mitt Romney, and Bill Weld were all governors of the extremely liberal Massachusetts. All three are more liberal Republicans: I can’t say on Baker, but both Romney and Weld do not support Trump and have espoused more liberal ideas in the past, a good representation of this is “Romney Care”, which was either modeled after Obama care, or got based off of by Obama care (Obama modeled his plan). A better example of how this statement could be confused as working either way is George Pataki of New York and the new Governor of Kansas (I don’t know their name). Both ran in opposite “party stronghold” states. New York hasn’t gone Republican in a Presidential election since 1984, when Reagan ran for re-election. Same goes for Kansas. The state hasn’t gone Democrat since 1964, and has been reliably Republican ever since. However, both elected opposite-party Governors. Why? Well, two possible ideas could be made.
1. Weak opponents: In 2018, the Democrat running for governor got 48 to 42 percent of the vote, achieving a 6 point victory. Kobach lost by over 6 points, which were ironically made up by a strong 3rd party. In 1998, Pataki won election to New York Governor with over 50% of the vote. Many factors could explain his win, but a contested race isn’t one of them. Adding all non-Pataki votes still ended in a decisive victory, unlike the Kansas race in 2018. A stronger GOP could be to blame for a Democratic loss, but in New York? I’m not so sure that’s the real story.
That’s why I think Bevin will probably win re-election, however narrow that margin is.

[Peter Moon]

Mississippi
I believe Mississippi is basically Ohio right now. There is a chance a Democrat could win it, but that chance is very small. There need to be several factors that ensure a Democratic upset there:
1. The Republicans/Republican supporters/voters need to either not vote for their candidate or not vote at all. This could result in an upset.
2. Democratic support: The Democratic candidate needs to appeal to more people than his party is right now. Mississippi isn’t just filled with “racist southerners”. The Democrat needs to galvanize more support, or he needs to draw support from his Republican opponent.
3. Lower turnout: This goes into 1, but it’s a fact. Turnout can decide an election no matter what other factors are at play. LA almost could have gone red if all Republicans who voted went for a single candidate instead of splitting the vote in half. If Democrats want to win a state like Mississippi, they need to get out their base to vote.

Overall, I think this state has very little chance of flipping.

Louisiana
Louisiana almost went Red this last election. Edwards only avoided being thrown out because the Republicans split their vote. If every Republican were to vote for Eddie on their next election night and didn’t care about political differences, the state has a large if not certain chance of going red. Edwards could get his support up though, and that is seemingly unlikely to happen. He got nearly 9 or so less points this election around, which is a very large drop in voter support. If one wants to argue how this election favored Republicans, then let’s discuss that:
1. Date/Time: The election was held on a weekend, the day most if not all working people have off. If this election were held on a weekday, the argument of “voter suppression” would hold more ground.
2. Candidate choice: Democrats seemed to unify behind Edwards more than any other candidate, so the argument that other Dems and third party voters are to blame for a loss is very loose, since the total combined vote of non-Edwards candidates (excluding the Republicans) is about 1.6-1.7, which was not enough for an Edwards victory after adding that.
3. Next Date/Time: From what I’ve heard, the next election will be held in November. If this is true, and it is held on Election Day, then there is little probabilities that Edwards will win a high amount of support. The whole reason Democrats complain about elections is that they supposedly don’t help young people with the laws in place and other attributes. So, if their argument is to be believed, then yes, a Republican victory is most certainly probable. Still a little unlikely, but definitely a possibility.

Kentucky

While Bevin seems quite unpopular, I think that the state itself isn’t trending blue. Yes, an unpopular governor can affect support, but tell that to Oregon and Wisconsin. Both Governors weren’t the most popular, but that didn’t mean a complete upset. Walker lost in WI mainly because of a lack of turnout by Republicans or even flips by those Republican voters. Oregon still elected another Democrat despite the governor having lower support. Support in the KY race may be a good prediction tool, but it is not going to determine the outcome.
Another myth some may come up with is that “because liberal states elect Republicans, conservative states can elect Democrats”. There is a problem with this argument. The idea that liberal states elect Republicans is a true statement one can make, but one needs to know what kind of candidates these are. Charlie Baker, Mitt Romney, and Bill Weld were all governors of the extremely liberal Massachusetts. All three are more liberal Republicans: I can’t say on Baker, but both Romney and Weld do not support Trump and have espoused more liberal ideas in the past, a good representation of this is “Romney Care”, which was either modeled after Obama care, or got based off of by Obama care (Obama modeled his plan). A better example of how this statement could be confused as working either way is George Pataki of New York and the new Governor of Kansas (I don’t know their name). Both ran in opposite “party stronghold” states. New York hasn’t gone Republican in a Presidential election since 1984, when Reagan ran for re-election. Same goes for Kansas. The state hasn’t gone Democrat since 1964, and has been reliably Republican ever since. However, both elected opposite-party Governors. Why? Well, two possible ideas could be made.
1. Weak opponents: In 2018, the Democrat running for governor got 48 to 42 percent of the vote, achieving a 6 point victory. Kobach lost by over 6 points, which were ironically made up by a strong 3rd party. In 1998, Pataki won election to New York Governor with over 50% of the vote. Many factors could explain his win, but a contested race isn’t one of them. Adding all non-Pataki votes still ended in a decisive victory, unlike the Kansas race in 2018. A stronger GOP could be to blame for a Democratic loss, but in New York? I’m not so sure that’s the real story.
That’s why I think Bevin will probably win re-election, however narrow that margin is.