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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election Predictions (Moderator: muon2)
  Predict the 2019 elections (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Predict the 2019 elections  (Read 10703 times)
LoneStarDem
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 981
United States
« on: March 18, 2019, 06:44:46 pm »

Governorships:

MS (Open): Toss-Up. I'd like to see Hood pull this off considering the MS Dems last won the MS Governor's Mansion in 1999 when then-LG Ross Musgrove (D) won the Governorship, only to lose reelection in 2003.

KY: Bevin wins reelection easily over Baby Beshear (56% to 41%).

LA: JBE wins without a Runoff: 57% of the statewide vote. Big question is whether the LA Dems make gains on down-ballot contests considering the other down-ballot statewide offices won't be contested.

Mayoral Contests:

Houston, TX: 50-to-50% possibility embattled incumbent Mayor Sylvester Turner (D) misses the Runoff; Bill King (R) & Tony Buzbee (D ? or R ?) stand possible shot at being Houston's 63rd Mayor.

There's still backlash against Turner over his disastrous handling over Proposition B & the HFD Firefighters Union, etc., who cannot stand him.

San Francisco ,CA: Breed wins 1st full 4-year term in November & she's eligible for a 2nd full 4-year term in 2023, which could give her close to 9 1/2 years.

Denver, CO: Incumbent Mayor Michael Hancock (D) wins 3rd consecutive term despite some controversies.

San Antonio, TX: Nirenberg wins reelection.

Fort Worth, TX: Price (R) wins 5th term.

Dallas, TX (Open): This might go to a Runoff.

Arlington, TX: Williams (R) wins reelection.

Charlotte, NC: Interesting to see if Lyles seeks another term in office.

Chicago, IL (Open): Lightfoot wins easily in the Runoff barring something crazy between now & April 2nd.



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LoneStarDem
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 981
United States
« Reply #1 on: May 21, 2019, 08:35:48 pm »

MS: GOP Hold.

KY: GOP Hold.

LA: DEM Hold with JBE winning by double digits with 57% & all of the doubters need to STFU.

Dallas, TX Mayor: Johnson wins the Runoff.

San Antonio, TX Mayor: Nirenberg wins reelection.

Houston, TX Mayor: King (R) or Buzbee (D/R) defeat Turner.

San Francisco, CA Mayor: Breed wins election to full 4-year term.

VA State Senate: DEM Pick-Up barring crazy Northam-like scandals.

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LoneStarDem
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 981
United States
« Reply #2 on: May 29, 2019, 10:53:21 am »

Sounds like the VA Dems will regain both chambers of the VA General Assembly for the first time since the early 1990s ?
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LoneStarDem
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 981
United States
« Reply #3 on: June 04, 2019, 03:37:42 pm »

VA Dems get back both houses of the General Assembly, both House and Senate were Likely D even before the Court imposed new maps. Safe D

Louisiana might move to Likely D since Edwards remains personally popular. He may be able to avoid a run-off

Mississippi is Lean R because of course they've got an electoral college down there. I find it hard to see how Hood manages a majority, especially looking at the handful of polling that's been released so far

Kentucky is a pure toss-up imo. Bevin is clearly damaged and Beshear should do a lot better than Conway.

Now let's see just hope Trump doesn't make these races Titanium R by virtue of showing up and tossing a Bounty paper towel roll or 2 into the crowds



MS: God just doesn't like the MS Dems down there for some reason & you're right about Hood needs to get over 50% to avoid facing the MS State Legislature, who decides who gets to move into the MS Governor's Mansion.
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LoneStarDem
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 981
United States
« Reply #4 on: June 05, 2019, 03:41:26 pm »

How did the lawsuit turn out ?
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LoneStarDem
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 981
United States
« Reply #5 on: June 07, 2019, 02:25:03 pm »

Denver, CO Mayor: Hancock will win reelection to 3rd & final term easily.

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LoneStarDem
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 981
United States
« Reply #6 on: June 07, 2019, 05:13:00 pm »

Denver, CO Mayor: Hancock will win reelection to 3rd & final term easily.


He already did

Oops!

Dallas & San Antonio have Mayoral Runoffs.
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LoneStarDem
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 981
United States
« Reply #7 on: June 11, 2019, 03:01:42 pm »

First round of predictions:

Lousiana:

Abraham unseats Edwards in a runoff 52-48

Mississippi:

Reeves beats Hood back 54-45

Kentucky:

Bevin beats Beshear back 52-46

OMG. You're such a pessimist.

LA: JBE wins reelection by double digits, 57% to 42%.

MS: Might go to the MS State Legislature if nobody gets the necessary 50%.

KY: Who knows. Crazy things have happened.

Houston, TX Mayor: December Runoff & with Boykins jumping in, he's going to cut into Turner's coalition of African Americans, Latinos, Asian/Pacific Islanders, etc., guaranteeing Buzbee or King advance to the Runoff.

I should note that Buzbee is running TV Advertising all over the place & considering he served on the Texas A&M University System Board of Regents & in the United States Marine Corps.

King needs to up his game.

San Francisco, CA Mayor: Breed wins election to a full 4-year term, hopefully by double digits & with 56+%.

VA State Senate & VA House of Delegates flip Blue.
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