Best Case Scenario for Democrats in 2020 Senate (November 2019)
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Author Topic: Best Case Scenario for Democrats in 2020 Senate (November 2019)  (Read 2571 times)
538Electoral
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« on: November 29, 2019, 02:44:29 AM »


GA SPECIAL: Lean D

53-47
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Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner
Jalawest2
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« Reply #1 on: November 30, 2019, 01:15:08 AM »



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KaiserDave
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« Reply #2 on: November 30, 2019, 01:01:09 PM »
So in your strange nonsensical map, AL is blue before Georgia?
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3 on: December 01, 2019, 12:32:32 AM »
I like how Florida flips to democrats in 2020 despite there not being a senate election there. 
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538Electoral
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« Reply #4 on: December 01, 2019, 12:34:08 AM »
Quote from: Phil Fanatic on November 30, 2019, 01:01:09 PM
So in your strange nonsensical map, AL is blue before Georgia?

Democrats have the incumbency advantage in AL and I don't think any Democrat will be strong enough to take GA's non-special seat.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #5 on: December 01, 2019, 08:31:44 AM »
Realistic (Lean R or better)

-AL
+AZ, CO, GA, GA-S, ME, NC

Net: D+5, 52-48 D Senate

Absolute (includes all Likely R)

+AZ, CO, GA, GA-S, IA, KS, ME, NC, TX

Net: D+9, 56-44 D Senate

An absolute best-case scenario involves every circumstance to go right in every state (and at the national level, so this means a recession, at least 10 point approval drop of Trump, and a Dem landslide). The statistical chances of that are so low that we can say it's about impossible.
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andjey
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« Reply #6 on: December 23, 2019, 05:08:27 PM »
Realistic:

FL= GA special
Moore is GOP nominee in AL
Kobach is GOP nominee in KS
Bullock runs in MT

Maybe AK also flips as well
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #7 on: December 28, 2019, 01:58:29 AM »
Realistic:
Republicans gain AL
Democrats gain AZ, CO, both races in GA, ME, and NC
D+5

In a big wave, maybe one or two more flip (of AK/IA/KS/MT/TX)
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #8 on: December 28, 2019, 07:16:07 AM »
The GOP are privately concerned about McConnell,  Graham and Cornyn; consequently, Collins, Ernst, John James and SMC can win in a wave, they are pragmatics
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Dr. MB
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« Reply #9 on: December 29, 2019, 12:12:11 AM »
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #10 on: December 30, 2019, 10:35:41 PM »
Realistic:
+AZ, CO, GA, GA-S, IA, ME, NC, TX
Net: D+8, 55-45 D Senate

Absolute:
+AK, AZ, CO, GA, GA-S, IA, KS, KY, ME, MS, MT, NC, SC, TN, TX
Net: D+15, 62-38 D Senate
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LAKISYLVANIA
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« Reply #11 on: January 17, 2020, 05:33:36 AM »


Absolute best case scenario.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #12 on: January 25, 2020, 09:11:58 AM »
There isnt gonna be a best case super majority D Senate
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pops
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« Reply #13 on: January 25, 2020, 10:38:38 PM »


51 Democrats, plus three independents caucusing with Democrats.
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Epaminondas
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« Reply #14 on: January 31, 2020, 08:35:27 AM »
Quote from: pops on January 25, 2020, 10:38:38 PM


51 Democrats, plus three independents caucusing with Democrats.

This seems about right.
Everyone forgets Al Gross (I), though he has a better chance than Jon "Star Wars" Ossoff in Georgia.
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DaWN
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« Reply #15 on: January 31, 2020, 08:38:44 AM »
Quote from: pops on January 25, 2020, 10:38:38 PM


51 Democrats, plus three independents caucusing with Democrats.

IA, KS and AL before GA? I was aware Atlas was deluded but that really takes the cake...
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #16 on: February 01, 2020, 10:22:03 PM »
Dems best case scenario is AZ, CO, NC, and ME for a tied Senate
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