[MA Poll] Biden, Sanders, Warren, O'Rourke lead; Trump above Baker by +10

[Harlow]

https://www.umass.edu/newsoffice/article/new-umass-amherst-polls-show-biden-early

Dems:

Biden 19%
Sanders 14%
Warren 11%
O’Rourke 10%
Patrick 6%
Harris 6%
Klobuchar 3%
Booker 3%
Moulton 1%

GOP:

Trump 40%
Baker 30%
Romney 7%
Kasich 3%
Ryan 2%
Flake 1%

[I Can Now Die Happy]

Who the hell is the 1% supporting Flake and the 2% supporting Ryan

[ON Progressive]

Not a good sign for Warren that she is third in her home state, even if it's early.

[lfromnj]

yeah stick a fork in warren
Trump baited and played her but a bit too early. Warren was his best shot at reelection. (he still has good chances but Id say with Warren he would be a heavy favorite)

[Shadows]

Looks like Warren might be a worse candidate than Hillary. How is she 3rd in her home state behind Biden & Bernie ?

Also this craziness about Bernie, Warren & O'rourke running has to stop. All 3 can't run, split the progressive vote & hand over the race to Biden.

[NewYorkExpress]

Looks like Warren might be a worse candidate than Hillary. How is she 3rd in her home state behind Biden & Bernie ?

Also this craziness about Bernie, Warren & O'rourke running has to stop. All 3 can't run, split the progressive vote & hand over the race to Biden.

It's called name recognition.

By this point everyone knows who Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders.

Some voters don't know who represents them in the Senate.

In fact, if you look at say...Ed Markey's approval ratings, I bet he'd be very unknown.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Not a good sign for Warren that she is third in her home state, even if it's early.

Yeah, she is almost losing to Beto already, lol. And in her home state.

It is also a pretty pathetic performance by Deval Patrick, it must be said. Only 6% for him in MA?

[Harlow]

Looks like Warren might be a worse candidate than Hillary. How is she 3rd in her home state behind Biden & Bernie ?

Also this craziness about Bernie, Warren & O'rourke running has to stop. All 3 can't run, split the progressive vote & hand over the race to Biden.

It's called name recognition.

By this point everyone knows who Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders.

Some voters don't know who represents them in the Senate.

In fact, if you look at say...Ed Markey's approval ratings, I bet he'd be very unknown.

Worth mentioning they polled the Senate primary as well, with Healey edging out Markey 27-26, and  Markey slightly ahead of Moulton 29-25.

[Former Crackhead Mike Lindell]

Wish they included Kerry! And I'd love to see more statewide polls that include multiple potential candidates from that state. A California primary poll would be fascinating right now. But exclude Biden and Bernie, just for fun, and the won't-runs like Michelle Obama and Hillary, because come on now.

[lfromnj]

Looks like Warren might be a worse candidate than Hillary. How is she 3rd in her home state behind Biden & Bernie ?

Also this craziness about Bernie, Warren & O'rourke running has to stop. All 3 can't run, split the progressive vote & hand over the race to Biden.

Warren lost a Hillary +7 trending D county in a D+8-9 ish year by 3 points against a lol tier candidate with a trump indie on the ballot who got 3 points.

She will be horrible.

[whale]

Warren would probably be higher if there weren't 2 other Massachusetts politicians included in the poll

[Mr. Morden]

They also asked a version of the Republican primary question with Pence instead of Trump:

Baker 33%
Pence 26%
Romney 8%
Kasich 7%
Ryan 2%
Flake 1%
undecided 22%

Crosstabs:

O’Rourke is at 11% among whites, 7% among Hispanics, and 0% among blacks.  :-P

Harris also gets almost all of her support from whites.  She’s at 7% among whites, 1% among blacks, and 0% among Hispanics.

O’Rourke also strong among voters with a college degree…..as is Harris, who’s at 13% among those with a postgrad education, but only 1% among those with a high school education or less.

Biden, Sanders, Warren, O’Rourke, and Harris among voters with a high school education or less:

Sanders 20%
Biden 18%
Warren 12%
O’Rourke 4%
Harris 1%

Biden, Sanders, Warren, O’Rourke, and Harris among voters with a postgrad degree:

Biden 20%
Harris 13%
Warren 11%
O’Rourke 10%
Sanders 10%

So it seems both Harris and O’Rourke get a disproportionately high share of their support from more “elite” voters.  But it’s not clear to me if that is because of “real” differences in preference among elite vs. non-elite voters, or if it’s just because more elite voters are more likely to know who Harris and O’Rourke are (whereas everyone knows Biden and Sanders….and Warren, since this is MA).

Meanwhile, in the GOP primary matchup, there’s a gigantic gender gap:

men:
Trump 55%
Baker 23%
Romney 7%

women:
Baker 38%
Trump 27%
Romney 7%

And a gigantic age gap….

voters under 30:
Baker 48%
Trump 9%
Romney 5%

voters age 30-54:
Baker 37%
Trump 36%
Romney 8%

voters over 55:
Trump 52%
Baker 21%
Romney 6%

[Grassroots]

Looks like Warren might be a worse candidate than Hillary. How is she 3rd in her home state behind Biden & Bernie ?

Also this craziness about Bernie, Warren & O'rourke running has to stop. All 3 can't run, split the progressive vote & hand over the race to Biden.

Uhm, O'Rourke isn't a progressive...

[IceSpear]

I find it amusing that in a Massachusetts primary poll:

- Beto is ahead of a former Massachusetts governor
- Beto is way ahead of an incumbent Massachusetts Congressman
- Beto is basically tied with the incumbent Massachusetts Senator

Of course this applies to Bernie/Biden too, but nobody was even talking about Beto running for president a month ago, lol.

[Shadows]

I find it amusing that in a Massachusetts primary poll:

- Beto is ahead of a former Massachusetts governor
- Beto is way ahead of an incumbent Massachusetts Congressman
- Beto is basically tied with the incumbent Massachusetts Senator

Of course this applies to Bernie/Biden too, but nobody was even talking about Beto running for president a month ago, lol.

I wouldn't be surprised if the same happens in CA, NY etc. Beto is highly liked to get the support of educated, white liberal young voters.

Ofcourse this speaks particularly bad about Warren !

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

I find it amusing that in a Massachusetts primary poll:

- Beto is ahead of a former Massachusetts governor
- Beto is way ahead of an incumbent Massachusetts Congressman
- Beto is basically tied with the incumbent Massachusetts Senator

Of course this applies to Bernie/Biden too, but nobody was even talking about Beto running for president a month ago, lol.

I wouldn't be surprised if the same happens in CA, NY etc. Beto is highly liked to get the support of educated, white liberal young voters.

Ofcourse this speaks particularly bad about Warren !

So basically it looks like, at the moment, if Biden and Bernie don't run, Beto starts off at 1st in the national polls before he even starts making any serious visible moves about running.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Looks like Warren might be a worse candidate than Hillary. How is she 3rd in her home state behind Biden & Bernie ?

Also this craziness about Bernie, Warren & O'rourke running has to stop. All 3 can't run, split the progressive vote & hand over the race to Biden.

What's progressive about a fast track supporting New Democrat?

[Shadows]

I find it amusing that in a Massachusetts primary poll:

- Beto is ahead of a former Massachusetts governor
- Beto is way ahead of an incumbent Massachusetts Congressman
- Beto is basically tied with the incumbent Massachusetts Senator

Of course this applies to Bernie/Biden too, but nobody was even talking about Beto running for president a month ago, lol.

I wouldn't be surprised if the same happens in CA, NY etc. Beto is highly liked to get the support of educated, white liberal young voters.

Ofcourse this speaks particularly bad about Warren !

So basically it looks like, at the moment, if Biden and Bernie don't run, Beto starts off at 1st in the national polls before he even starts making any serious visible moves about running.

Maybe. Or Perhaps Beto-mania subsides in a month or 2. Sometimes there is euphoria for a while & hype & we will see what happens when the dust settles down. People have to wait till February-March & see what the polls say to have an idea if Beto is indeed that popular.

Then that is an initial start. Beto has to make inroads into minority, mid-western & non-college educated voters too.

Looks like Warren might be a worse candidate than Hillary. How is she 3rd in her home state behind Biden & Bernie ?

Also this craziness about Bernie, Warren & O'rourke running has to stop. All 3 can't run, split the progressive vote & hand over the race to Biden.

What's progressive about a fast track supporting New Democrat?

Just because someone was a New Democrat once doesn't mean he will never become a progressive. Elizabeth Warren was once a Republican.

Beto ran to the farthest left of any Senate candidate - Abolishing ICE, Impeaching Trump, Medicare for all, No PAC money & he ran a consultant free clean campaign.

[henster]

I mean you'd have to be pretty well educated to even know who Beto is in MA or Kamala Harris, most people struggle to name their own representatives. I think the low supported among lower educated is simply them not knowing who they are.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Bernie gets 18% of blacks, yet struggles to get only 14% of whites. Clearly he has a problem with whites.

[BlueSwan]

I mean you'd have to be pretty well educated to even know who Beto is in MA or Kamala Harris, most people struggle to name their own representatives. I think the low supported among lower educated is simply them not knowing who they are.

Really? I think a majority of the people in Denmark know who Beto O'Rourke is. He was covered massively by the danish media.

[BlueSwan]

Any particular reason WHY they are polling Baker? Is it just because it is an MA poll? Has he dropped any hints whatsoever that he might challenge Trump??

[Harlow]

Any particular reason WHY they are polling Baker? Is it just because it is an MA poll? Has he dropped any hints whatsoever that he might challenge Trump??

It's just because it's an MA poll. But it also does highlight just how popular Baker is among the GOP here compared to Trump, especially among younger voters.

[Possiblymaybe]

Looks like Warren might be a worse candidate than Hillary. How is she 3rd in her home state behind Biden & Bernie ?

Also this craziness about Bernie, Warren & O'rourke running has to stop. All 3 can't run, split the progressive vote & hand over the race to Biden.

Why do people think Beto is a progressive in the Bernie -Warren vein? Beto voted for deregulation and that trump bill. He’s actually pretty much a centrist on the economy.

[pbrower2a]

Any particular reason WHY they are polling Baker? Is it just because it is an MA poll? Has he dropped any hints whatsoever that he might challenge Trump??

It's because Baker is one of few Republicans who has a marked contrast to Donald
Trump. He is moderate enough that he would defeat most Democratic nominees in 2020 if he were the Republican nominee. In the event that there were a resignation of Pence (for example, if Pence had to resign under the circumstances under which Agnew resigned)* while Trump was treading water politically due to scandals, then Democrats could easily find him the least objectionable of nominees for VP. Figure that he clears out the crooks and fanatics of the Trump regime and replaces them with people of integrity unlikely to stir up controversy for extremism, and he runs for re-election and wins.

The right Republican can win Massachusetts in a statewide race. It chose Eisenhower and Reagan twice. It elected Senator Edward Brooke twice. It elected Mitt Romney and Charlie Baker as Governor.

*I do not accuse Mike Pence of taking bribes or evading taxes on those.