Congressional Special Election (last call! unstickied after NY-27 final results)

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Pennsylvania Special Elections have been rather consistently abnormally strong for Democrats across the board during the Trump presidency. I would not rule out an upset near-win by Friedenberg along the same level as the KS-04 special or even the SC-05 special in 2017.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

53R/47D

My actual prediction here is 58R/42D; the above prediction is sarcasm

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Finally settling in to watch the results come in after some loooooooong weeks of working the Friedenberg campaign in PA12.  Turnout in the area is low as expected for a special election/primary, but (Atlas trigger warning, anecdotal evidence and personal experience) having traveled my entire county several times over and talked to hundreds of voters the past few weeks, I'm expecting the win margin for Keller to be more around 60R/40D, and anything above 40/approaching 45 is PHENOMENAL for rural NEPA and Central PA Dems.  We'll have to see.  The Trump rally in Montoursville yesterday could have more of an effect than I expect, though.

Either way I'll be sweating all night because this is my district.    

Why are you sweating? This is safe R no matter how many hours you and your pals put in.

His signature literally indicates that his loyalty is with the Democrats despite the fact that his party registration is with the Republicans. Do not be a fool.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Fun fact: Pennsylvania has 2 Counties in it that have never at any point voted Democratic at the presidential level. Both are wholly within this District. Union and Snyder.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Cox was I think 10 or 11 points. Cisneros was the next most impressive at an original 8 point deficit. Then Rouda and Porter at 6 or so.

Actually, Cisneros had a 3 point deficit on election day, while Porter had a 4 point deficit. I think Rouda actually was already in the lead on election day too.