Congressional Special Election (last call! unstickied after NY-27 final results)

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

How a contested election is handled in the house:

Article 1, Section 5, U.S. Constitution:

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Under the relevant statute, the committee to hear such a challenge is the Committee on House Administration, which is always controlled by the Majority Party by a margin of 6-3.

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https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/RL33780.pdf

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

So who gets to decide the question about the election returns? Ryan’s house or Pelosi’s? Pelosi needs the new members to elect her and presumably Harris would be sworn in along with those new members. If he’s sworn in, he’d have to be removed, not refused.

While the swearing-in is done en masse, for it to count, you not only have to be in the room but also must have your certificate of election on file with the house. And decisions about which certificates will be on file and which will be held back for Committee on House Administration Review are made by the incoming majority. However, we don't even get to that point because the certificate has not even been submitted - if the state never certifies the election, there is no certificate to put on file, and so Harris is ineligible regardless of what Hoyer/Pelosi want to do.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Now that the new congress is sworn in and the seat is vacant, what's stopping there from being a regular special election? This should be the procedure, right? Independent of the ongoing investigation.

The House will give the state government a chance to certify a winner before they decide whether or not to seat that person.

All that should matter is that there's currently a vacancy, right? House vacancies are resolved by special election, regardless as to why the seat is vacant. The house can't choose to not seat him because they haven't been handed a certificate.

Not precisely. The House recognizes the existence of a vacancy when a seat is filled and then becomes unfilled.  In this case, we simply have an election that has not concluded. You can't call a special election because there's already an election taking place - it simply has not concluded. NC could certify Harris right now if it so chose, but it so far has not done so, and certification is required to seat a member, except in cases where there is no question over who was elected, which is obviously not the case here.

In order to call a new election, either the house would have to take a separate and deliberate action of declaring the seat to be vacant (which would invite partisan criticisms), or NC must officially declare the election null and void. So far, neither has happened. Once either does, a special is called.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Politico:

North Carolina Republicans will select a new nominee in May for the election do-over in a now-vacant congressional district after the state's board of elections on Monday ordered a new primary.

The primary in North Carolina's 9th District, which will be open to new candidates, will be held on May 14. The general election is scheduled for Sept. 10 — but if no candidate in a party primary earns greater than 30 percent of the vote, a primary runoff will take place on Sept. 10, and the general will be moved to Nov. 5.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

So, the 2 dates for NC-03 and NC-09 are not the same ...

Yeah, because they were set by different entities, as a result of 1 being a pure vacant seat and 1 being a re-do election.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

So, the 2 dates for NC-03 and NC-09 are not the same ...

Yeah, because they were set by different entities, as a result of 1 being a pure vacant seat and 1 being a re-do election.

The NCSBOE considered setting the same date, but filing has already begun in NC-3. In addition, there is no county board of elections in Bladen County, and no elections director.

The NCSBOE also considered the judicial race in Robeson County and on a party-line 3:2 vote decided that the election of the Democratic candidate was not "tainted", and the number of irregular votes would not have changed the overall result. This was also the case in NC-9, but that was ignored.

The board also found no explanation for inordinate number of unreturned ballots in Robeson County, but suggested that it might have been because of Hurricane Florence.

With NC-9, we did not have firm numbers of affected ballots. We were working off rough estimates, it is ultimately unknowable if the fraud changed the result or not. That is why a new election is being held, so that the people may have confidence that the result given by the state is in fact the authentic result.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The filing deadline for NC-09 is on Friday.

So far, until yesterday night, only 4 candidates have officially registered:

Stony Rushing (R, endorsed by Harris)
Fern Shubert (R)

Dan McCready (D, 2018 GE nominee)

Jeff Scott (L, 2018 GE nominee)

https://s3.amazonaws.com/dl.ncsbe.gov/Elections/2019/District9Candidates.pdf

Glad to see a small field. Will allow us to resolve the Republican Primary w/out a Runoff and thus fill the seat in September rather than November.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Republican Primary
Candidate   Vote   Pct.
Dan Bishop
4,372   43.2%
Stony Rushing
2,062   20.4
Matthew Ridenhour
1,434   14.2
Leigh Brown
825   8.1
Kathie Day
295   2.9
Chris Anglin
292   2.9
Gary Dunn
275   2.7
Fern Shubert
238   2.3
Stevie Rivenbark Hull
203   2.0
Albert Wiley
136   1.3
10,132 votes, 5% reporting (11 of 210 precincts)

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Republican Primary
Candidate   Vote   Pct.
Dan Bishop
4,786   47.0%
Stony Rushing
2,510   24.6
Matthew Ridenhour
1,496   14.7
Leigh Brown
727   7.1
Stevie Rivenbark Hull
207   2.0
Fern Shubert
168   1.6
Chris Anglin
156   1.5
Kathie Day
82   0.8
Gary Dunn
40   0.4
Albert Wiley
16   0.2
10,188 votes, 7% reporting (14 of 210 precincts)

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Republican Primary
Candidate   Vote   Pct.
Dan Bishop
5,468   46.7%
Stony Rushing
2,959   25.3
Matthew Ridenhour
1,645   14.1
Leigh Brown
856   7.3
Stevie Rivenbark Hull
258   2.2
Fern Shubert
207   1.8
Chris Anglin
164   1.4
Kathie Day
84   0.7
Gary Dunn
43   0.4
Albert Wiley
23   0.2
11,707 votes, 17% reporting (36 of 210 precincts)

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Republican Primary
Candidate   Vote   Pct.
Dan Bishop
6,667   47.4%
Stony Rushing
3,327   23.7
Matthew Ridenhour
2,082   14.8
Leigh Brown
1,055   7.5
Stevie Rivenbark Hull
317   2.3
Fern Shubert
242   1.7
Chris Anglin
195   1.4
Kathie Day
106   0.8
Gary Dunn
47   0.3
Albert Wiley
29   0.2
14,067 votes, 28% reporting (59 of 210 precincts)

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Republican Primary
Candidate   Vote   Pct.
Dan Bishop
6,667   47.4%
Stony Rushing
3,327   23.7
Matthew Ridenhour
2,082   14.8
Leigh Brown
1,055   7.5
Stevie Rivenbark Hull
317   2.3
Fern Shubert
242   1.7
Chris Anglin
195   1.4
Kathie Day
106   0.8
Gary Dunn
47   0.3
Albert Wiley
29   0.2
14,067 votes, 28% reporting (59 of 210 precincts)

Dude project Bishop for the primary, it’s over haha

I'm in no rush, this is the only race happening tonight

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Well now that one county going against Bishop flipped over, so:

WULFRIC PROJECTION:

Republican Primary
Candidate   Vote   Pct.
Dan Bishop
7,406   47.7%
Stony Rushing
3,682   23.7
Matthew Ridenhour
2,259   14.6
Leigh Brown
1,167   7.5
Stevie Rivenbark Hull
358   2.3
Fern Shubert
255   1.6
Chris Anglin
207   1.3
Kathie Day
108   0.7
Gary Dunn
48   0.3
Albert Wiley
30   0.2
15,520 votes, 32% reporting (67 of 210 precincts)

General election is in September

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Results will be at: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/05/21/us/elections/results-pennsylvania-house-district-12-special-general-election.html

polls close at 8 ET.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

First Precinct:

Candidate   Party   Votes   Pct.
Fred Keller
Republican
275   71.1%
Marc Friedenberg
Democrat
112   28.9
387 votes, <1% reporting (1 of 555 precincts)

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

andidate   Party   Votes   Pct.
Fred Keller
Republican
2,273   73.9%
Marc Friedenberg
Democrat
801   26.1
3,074 votes, 3% reporting (16 of 555 precincts)

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Keller at only 58% in Union County!  (Marino got 62%)

The other three counties are right in line with 2018 though

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Candidate   Party   Votes   Pct.
Fred Keller
Republican
3,203   69.6%
Marc Friedenberg
Democrat
1,397   30.4
4,600 votes, 4% reporting (23 of 555 precincts)

Lycoming just narrowed a bunch. This might not be over!

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Candidate   Party   Votes   Pct.
Fred Keller
Republican
7,089   68.4%
Marc Friedenberg
Democrat
3,281   31.6
10,370 votes, 9% reporting (51 of 555 precincts)

Very nice start in Clinton County, only down by 10 there. (Marino won it by 24)

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

How much is the overperformance to 2018 by?

Keller is doing slightly better than Marino in Northumberland (73% vs 71%), and Tioga (76% vs 75%), is doing the same as Marino in Perry, but is doing worse than Marino in the rest:

Union: 58% vs 62%
Clinton: 55% vs 62%
Lycoming: 66% vs 71%

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Candidate   Party   Votes   Pct.
Fred Keller
Republican
9,135   70.2%
Marc Friedenberg
Democrat
3,883   29.8
13,018 votes, 12% reporting (65 of 555 precincts)

Keller even with Marino in Juanita County

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Wyoming County also at 2018 levels

-----------------------------------


WULFRIC PROJECTION:


Candidate   Party   Votes   Pct.
Fred Keller
Republican
16,145   70.1%
Marc Friedenberg
Democrat
6,882   29.9
23,027 votes, 20% reporting (109 of 555 precincts)

Wow this is just sad

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Runoff Result, 67% in:

 Greg Murphy (R)   15,997   62.2%
 Joan Perry (R)   9,736   37.8%

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Candidate   Votes   Pct.
 Greg Murphy (R)   21,383   59.7%
 Joan Perry (R)   14,433   40.3%
99.6% of precincts reporting

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Pretty sure Joan Perry endorsed Democrats as recently as 2012.

She did support McIntyre, but he was a Democrat in name only.