Congressional Special Election (last call! unstickied after NY-27 final results)

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

It's been 14 days and only 2 of 8 counties in NY-27 have released absentee results. 

Uhhhh

https://twitter.com/Nate_McMurray/status/1280671920338481152
This is a higher percentage than he received against Collins in 2018.

Are we sure the Erie county mail-ins can't put McMurray over the top?

This is what the overall totals become with this:

Jacobs 59948
Murray 33717

That's still a 28% two party vote lead for Jacobs. It's safe.

[LimoLiberal]

Here's some quick math. With the updated Ontario results McMurray is 26,231 votes behind Jacobs. Considering McMurray won absentees in the most Republican county in the district it's pretty safe to say he can only gain on Jacobs from here. The question is by how much.

In the three counties reporting absentee results as of now, Jacobs' percentage of the absentee vote is 35.3, 34, and 33.8 points lower than his percentage of the election day vote. Let's average that out and say Jacobs will do 34.4 points worse in the absentee ballots than election day.

Applying that to the number of absentee ballots uncounted in the 5 outstanding counties:

Erie (~41000): Jacobs won 69.7% of the ED vote so he'll drop to 35.4% of the absentees - with a third party vote of 1.6% McMurray will net 11316 votes

Niagara (~12000): Jacobs won 66.6% of the ED vote so he'll drop to 32.2% of the absentees - with a third party vote of 1.6% McMurray will net 4080 votes

That brings McMurray within 10835 votes of Jacobs. I haven't been able to find absentee ballot statistics for the three remaining counties (Orleans, Genesee, and Monroe), but together in 2018 they cast about 66% of the total Ontario + Wyoming + Livingston vote so let's say they cast 66% of the total Ontario + Wyoming + Livingston absentees which would be 9797 ballots in total - even if McMurray won them with 100% of the vote it wouldn't be enough.

With all those assumptions and calculations McMurray would probably between 6000-8000 votes behind Jacobs. What McMurray needs are incredible showings in the Erie and Niagara absentees - better than the ones he's put up in the three counties that have already reported. If McMurray were to somehow get 70% of the Erie absentee he would net an extra 5740 votes - repeat that in Niagara and that's probably enough for a narrow win.

Edit: I somehow stumbled across the Orleans county absentee results (which have been not been reported officially anywhere) and McMurray won them 1425-1264, 53-47 (not accounting for third parties). Under the -34.4 assumption, Jacobs would've received just 41.2%. So Jacobs outperformed here. McMurray has to hope the absentees in this very small county are unrepresentative of those in Niagara, Erie, Genesee, and Monroe.

I also found that there is 8,000ish absentees outstanding in Genesee and 2,000 outstanding in Monroe which is a little more than I expected. Both of those should favor McMurray heavily.

[n1240]

Here's some quick math. With the updated Ontario results McMurray is 26,231 votes behind Jacobs. Considering McMurray won absentees in the most Republican county in the district it's pretty safe to say he can only gain on Jacobs from here. The question is by how much.

In the three counties reporting absentee results as of now, Jacobs' percentage of the absentee vote is 35.3, 34, and 33.8 points lower than his percentage of the election day vote. Let's average that out and say Jacobs will do 34.4 points worse in the absentee ballots than election day.

Applying that to the number of absentee ballots uncounted in the 5 outstanding counties:

Erie (~41000): Jacobs won 69.7% of the ED vote so he'll drop to 35.4% of the absentees - with a third party vote of 1.6% McMurray will net 11316 votes

Niagara (~12000): Jacobs won 66.6% of the ED vote so he'll drop to 32.2% of the absentees - with a third party vote of 1.6% McMurray will net 4080 votes

That brings McMurray within 10835 votes of Jacobs. I haven't been able to find absentee ballot statistics for the three remaining counties (Orleans, Genesee, and Monroe), but together in 2018 they cast about 66% of the total Ontario + Wyoming + Livingston vote so let's say they cast 66% of the total Ontario + Wyoming + Livingston absentees which would be 9797 ballots in total - even if McMurray won them with 100% of the vote it wouldn't be enough.

With all those assumptions and calculations McMurray would probably between 6000-8000 votes behind Jacobs. What McMurray needs are incredible showings in the Erie and Niagara absentees - better than the ones he's put up in the three counties that have already reported. If McMurray were to somehow get 70% of the Erie absentee he would net an extra 5740 votes - repeat that in Niagara and that's probably enough for a narrow win.

I had 7400-5900 on my spreadsheet for Ontario in terms of a fairly generic result lying under the assumption that Jacobs vote total in the absentees are equal to the GOP ballots returned and then add the remaining number of ballots to McMurray's total. For example, Ontario County reported 1922 GOP ballots and 6734 total ballots, so I added 1922 to Collins' total and about 4800 to McMurray's total, but this didn't account for the extra influx of ballots received after election day. This result lines up well with a similar trend in Livingston and Wyoming (although if I recall correctly there were fewer GOP votes counted than GOP ballots returned in absentee, probably by about 3% or so).

Using this method to predict the remaining counties demonstrates how difficult it is for McMurray to win at this rate, since as I previously mentioned, the election day vote deficit is probably too large for McMurray to feasibly be able to take the lead in Niagara or build up a margin in Erie County.

Orleans County: 2312 ballots returned as of June 23, 1110 GOP ballots returned, add 1110 to Jacobs total, 1400 to McMurray's total (account for more ballots coming in), get margin of about 29% which is considerably worse than 2018 where McMurray lost by 22.3%)

Genesee County: 3554 ballots returned as of June 23, unknown amount of GOP ballots returned. Will just assume 3700 ballots swinging 65%, final margin around 22%, again considerably worse than losing by 13.3% in 2018

Monroe County: no clue, I'll be generous and just say McMurray wins 3300-3100 overall, slightly better than 2018 marginwise

Niagara County: 3784 GOP ballots, add that to Jacobs total, give 7748 to McMurray (probably might be a couple hundred more countywide in reality still since their numbers are as of June 26). final result 14307-12571 in favor of Jacobs, 6% margin, worse than 1% McMurray loss in 2018

Erie County: 12413 GOP ballots, add to Jacobs total, 28710 to McMurray, 38586-36294 in favor of McMurray, slightly worse than winning by 5% in 2018 (3% using this projection).

Overall this results in a 3.3% Jacobs win, and it might even be narrower since Ontario and Livingston Counties have both produced fewer Jacobs votes than GOP ballots cast. The issue that prevents McMurray from having any reasonable chance is that Jacobs would have to receive around 10-15% fewer votes than GOP ballots cast for McMurray to have a shot at winning, and there is no evidence to suggest that may be a possibility from the counties currently reporting.

source on Orleans/Genesee absentees (have to scroll down a bit to find it)

[LimoLiberal]

Here's some quick math. With the updated Ontario results McMurray is 26,231 votes behind Jacobs. Considering McMurray won absentees in the most Republican county in the district it's pretty safe to say he can only gain on Jacobs from here. The question is by how much.

In the three counties reporting absentee results as of now, Jacobs' percentage of the absentee vote is 35.3, 34, and 33.8 points lower than his percentage of the election day vote. Let's average that out and say Jacobs will do 34.4 points worse in the absentee ballots than election day.

Applying that to the number of absentee ballots uncounted in the 5 outstanding counties:

Erie (~41000): Jacobs won 69.7% of the ED vote so he'll drop to 35.4% of the absentees - with a third party vote of 1.6% McMurray will net 11316 votes

Niagara (~12000): Jacobs won 66.6% of the ED vote so he'll drop to 32.2% of the absentees - with a third party vote of 1.6% McMurray will net 4080 votes

That brings McMurray within 10835 votes of Jacobs. I haven't been able to find absentee ballot statistics for the three remaining counties (Orleans, Genesee, and Monroe), but together in 2018 they cast about 66% of the total Ontario + Wyoming + Livingston vote so let's say they cast 66% of the total Ontario + Wyoming + Livingston absentees which would be 9797 ballots in total - even if McMurray won them with 100% of the vote it wouldn't be enough.

With all those assumptions and calculations McMurray would probably between 6000-8000 votes behind Jacobs. What McMurray needs are incredible showings in the Erie and Niagara absentees - better than the ones he's put up in the three counties that have already reported. If McMurray were to somehow get 70% of the Erie absentee he would net an extra 5740 votes - repeat that in Niagara and that's probably enough for a narrow win.

I had 7400-5900 on my spreadsheet for Ontario in terms of a fairly generic result lying under the assumption that Jacobs vote total in the absentees are equal to the GOP ballots returned and then add the remaining number of ballots to McMurray's total. For example, Ontario County reported 1922 GOP ballots and 6734 total ballots, so I added 1922 to Collins' total and about 4800 to McMurray's total, but this didn't account for the extra influx of ballots received after election day. This result lines up well with a similar trend in Livingston and Wyoming (although if I recall correctly there were fewer GOP votes counted than GOP ballots returned in absentee, probably by about 3% or so).

Using this method to predict the remaining counties demonstrates how difficult it is for McMurray to win at this rate, since as I previously mentioned, the election day vote deficit is probably too large for McMurray to feasibly be able to take the lead in Niagara or build up a margin in Erie County.

Orleans County: 2312 ballots returned as of June 23, 1110 GOP ballots returned, add 1110 to Jacobs total, 1400 to McMurray's total (account for more ballots coming in), get margin of about 29% which is considerably worse than 2018 where McMurray lost by 22.3%)

Genesee County: 3554 ballots returned as of June 23, unknown amount of GOP ballots returned. Will just assume 3700 ballots swinging 65%, final margin around 22%, again considerably worse than losing by 13.3% in 2018

Monroe County: no clue, I'll be generous and just say McMurray wins 3300-3100 overall, slightly better than 2018 marginwise

Niagara County: 3784 GOP ballots, add that to Jacobs total, give 7748 to McMurray (probably might be a couple hundred more countywide in reality still since their numbers are as of June 26). final result 14307-12571 in favor of Jacobs, 6% margin, worse than 1% McMurray loss in 2018

Erie County: 12413 GOP ballots, add to Jacobs total, 28710 to McMurray, 38586-36294 in favor of McMurray, slightly worse than winning by 5% in 2018 (3% using this projection).

Overall this results in a 3.3% Jacobs win, and it might even be narrower since Ontario and Livingston Counties have both produced fewer Jacobs votes than GOP ballots cast. The issue that prevents McMurray from having any reasonable chance is that Jacobs would have to receive around 10-15% fewer votes than GOP ballots cast for McMurray to have a shot at winning, and there is no evidence to suggest that may be a possibility from the counties currently reporting.

See this is much better analysis than my jumble

FWIW I have Genesee county as having 8,000 absentees from this article:

https://www.thedailynewsonline.com/news/jacobs-leads-mcmurray-locally/article_418c0ccc-c008-5560-b7cb-b5df072fbb25.html

Genesee County Republican Election Commissioner Richard Siebert said the county received close to 8,000 absentee ballots after roughly 40,000 absentee ballot applications were sent out previously. He said the county has all the absentee ballots it will be accepting.

“There’s absentee ballots for two Republican races and absentee ballots for three Democratic races,” he said. “There’s absentee ballots for minor parties — anyone who could vote for any one of the candidates got an absentee ballot.

But perhaps I'm reading it wrong? I know NY can get wonky with different ballots for different races.

Yeah, I think McMurray's only hope is that Erie and Niagara come in significantly more Democratic than the partisan breakdowns would suggest, and as you said that seems unlikely considering the trends in other counties. One piece of hope for McMurray is that there's more anti-Trump RINOs in those counties that vote in the Republican primary (perhaps for local races?) but will vote for Democrats at the federal level. Niagara and Erie are the most "suburban" parts of the district, so if those voters exist it would be there.

[Epaminondas]

If as you say McMurray loses by around 48-51, does that bode well for November?

The area went for Trump by 25 points after all.

[n1240]

But perhaps I'm reading it wrong? I know NY can get wonky with different ballots for different races.

Yeah, I think McMurray's only hope is that Erie and Niagara come in significantly more Democratic than the partisan breakdowns would suggest, and as you said that seems unlikely considering the trends in other counties. One piece of hope for McMurray is that there's more anti-Trump RINOs in those counties that vote in the Republican primary (perhaps for local races?) but will vote for Democrats at the federal level. Niagara and Erie are the most "suburban" parts of the district, so if those voters exist it would be there.

NY-27 portion of the district has three elections, Presidential Primary, Federal Primary, and this special election, they're probably pooling together primary absentees (possibly "combining" presidential/federal primaries into one) and special election ballots in that Genesee report. 8000 seems too high for Genesee anyways since it would mean they would well exceed Livingston's vote totals despite being about 90% of them in 2018.

If as you say McMurray loses by around 48-51, does that bode well for November?

The area went for Trump by 25 points after all.

It's a decent result but the consideration that this was a low interest/turnout special election where D turnout was aided by there only being a presidential primary on the Democratic side makes it difficult to draw any meaningful conclusions from the race.

[n1240]

Monroe County absentees

McMurray 1370 (72.41%)
Jacobs 489 (25.85%)

Total

McMurray 2539 (52.4%)
Jacobs 2221 (45.9%)

Better performance by % margin than 2018 for McMurray, about 65% swing between eday and absentee here.

[LimoLiberal]

Monroe County absentees

McMurray 1370 (72.41%)
Jacobs 489 (25.85%)

Total

McMurray 2539 (52.4%)
Jacobs 2221 (45.9%)

Better performance by % margin than 2018 for McMurray, about 65% swing between eday and absentee here.

McMurray outperformed 2018 in Monroe and Ontario, did a little worse in Wyoming and Livingston and did a lot worse in Orleans. Seems like the closer you get to Buffalo (Jacobs' domain) the worse McMurray does.

[n1240]

https://twitter.com/Nate_McMurray/status/1281025605044260866

McMurray loses Erie County so this is officially over now. Based on this result, Jacobs probably ends up with a 5-6% victory now

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Candidate   Party   Votes   Pct.   
Chris Jacobs
Rep.
73,688   55.2%   
Nathan McMurray
Dem.
57,575   43.1   
Duane Whitmer
Lib.
1,329   1.0   
Michael Gammariello
Green
886   0.7

[LimoLiberal]

Does anyone know why this article is saying McMurray is only down 8,668 votes and 6.3 points with Genesee and Niagara still left to count? That doesn't make sense with the numbers we have now.

https://buffalonews.com/news/local/absentee-ballots-in-ny-27-pull-mcmurray-within-6-3-points-of-jacobs/article_9790565c-c208-11ea-a96d-d33fcffab24c.html

[IAMCANADIAN]

I have done some math on the results of this race. There are two counties with outstanding absentee ballots, Genesee and Niagara. Genesee is a smaller county but it is Republican favored and Niagra is generally a red county but was tied in 2018. I expect the overall vote to go the republicans in that county this time, especially with the Erie swing this time

From my math the current count if you exclude those two counties election day vote

Jacobs 61616     50.74%
McMurray 56526 46.58 %


I then did the math and included the election day results from the two missing counties.

Jacobs 76631 53.50%
McMurray 62949  43.95%

The final result will be between these two numbers. McMurray is being a sore loser on twitter. Democrats should pick a better candidate if you are running in a republican district like this.

[Continential]

I have done some math on the results of this race. There are two counties with outstanding absentee ballots, Genesee and Niagara. Genesee is a smaller county but it is Republican favored and Niagra is generally a red county but was tied in 2018. I expect the overall vote to go the republicans in that county this time, especially with the Erie swing this time

From my math the current count if you exclude those two counties election day vote

Jacobs 61616     50.74%
McMurray 56526 46.58 %


I then did the math and included the election day results from the two missing counties.

Jacobs 76631 53.50%
McMurray 62949  43.95%

The final result will be between these two numbers. McMurray is being a sore loser on twitter. Democrats should pick a better candidate if you are running in a republican district like this.

Clinton lost this 59-35

[IAMCANADIAN]

I have done some math on the results of this race. There are two counties with outstanding absentee ballots, Genesee and Niagara. Genesee is a smaller county but it is Republican favored and Niagra is generally a red county but was tied in 2018. I expect the overall vote to go the republicans in that county this time, especially with the Erie swing this time

From my math the current count if you exclude those two counties election day vote

Jacobs 61616     50.74%
McMurray 56526 46.58 %


I then did the math and included the election day results from the two missing counties.

Jacobs 76631 53.50%
McMurray 62949  43.95%

The final result will be between these two numbers. McMurray is being a sore loser on twitter. Democrats should pick a better candidate if you are running in a republican district like this.

Clinton lost this 59-35

Yes that is true. However, margins are up from 2018 even though all polling shows Republicans are significantly behind their 2018 numbers.

This is not the only special election to show this either. I may make a post about the topic of special election results after this is over. It clashes with the media narrative.

[DaWN]

I have done some math on the results of this race. There are two counties with outstanding absentee ballots, Genesee and Niagara. Genesee is a smaller county but it is Republican favored and Niagra is generally a red county but was tied in 2018. I expect the overall vote to go the republicans in that county this time, especially with the Erie swing this time

From my math the current count if you exclude those two counties election day vote

Jacobs 61616     50.74%
McMurray 56526 46.58 %


I then did the math and included the election day results from the two missing counties.

Jacobs 76631 53.50%
McMurray 62949  43.95%

The final result will be between these two numbers. McMurray is being a sore loser on twitter. Democrats should pick a better candidate if you are running in a republican district like this.

Clinton lost this 59-35

Yes that is true. However, margins are up from 2018 even though all polling shows Republicans are significantly behind their 2018 numbers.

This is not the only special election to show this either. I may make a post about the topic of special election results after this is over. It clashes with the media narrative.

Pretty sure this district was only close in 2018 because of Collins' scandals

[IAMCANADIAN]

I have done some math on the results of this race. There are two counties with outstanding absentee ballots, Genesee and Niagara. Genesee is a smaller county but it is Republican favored and Niagra is generally a red county but was tied in 2018. I expect the overall vote to go the republicans in that county this time, especially with the Erie swing this time

From my math the current count if you exclude those two counties election day vote

Jacobs 61616     50.74%
McMurray 56526 46.58 %


I then did the math and included the election day results from the two missing counties.

Jacobs 76631 53.50%
McMurray 62949  43.95%

The final result will be between these two numbers. McMurray is being a sore loser on twitter. Democrats should pick a better candidate if you are running in a republican district like this.

Clinton lost this 59-35

Yes that is true. However, margins are up from 2018 even though all polling shows Republicans are significantly behind their 2018 numbers.

This is not the only special election to show this either. I may make a post about the topic of special election results after this is over. It clashes with the media narrative.

Pretty sure this district was only close in 2018 because of Collins' scandals

Yes that is true, but I believe that there may be some leftover dislike for the republicans from the Collins' Scandal that would keep the numbers lower than it should be.

See the California 25 Special election to see what happens after a candidate had to resign due to scandal.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I had completely forgotten that there was a special in NY-27. For some reason I thought that was scheduled alongside the regular election in November. These results are nothing but catastrophic for Republicans if it is indicative of anything meaningful. But again, if we were going by special election results as a barometer for November, we'd have thought Biden was doomed based on the CA-25 special.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I had completely forgotten that there was a special in NY-27. For some reason I thought that was scheduled alongside the regular election in November. These results are nothing but catastrophic for Republicans if it is indicative of anything meaningful. But again, if we were going by special election results as a barometer for November, we'd have thought Biden was doomed based on the CA-25 special.

Well to be fair, CA-25 is still a kind of a tossup, and it's traditionally Republican.

NY-27 is a solid red seat and no Democrat has any business doing this well, especially against an unproblematic candidate like Jacobs.

[Brittain33]

Are we done with these for the year and should I unsticky the thread?

[Gracile]

Are we done with these for the year and should I unsticky the thread?

As far as I can tell elections for the remaining vacant seats will be in November, so I think this can be unstickied.

[IAMCANADIAN]

Are we done with these for the year and should I unsticky the thread?

I think we should wait for the final results. I don't think they will be as democrat favored as some are saying.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Are we done with these for the year and should I unsticky the thread?

NY-23 is still counting but any other elections will be held concurrent with the GE for super short terms or not held at all.

[Brittain33]

Are we done with these for the year and should I unsticky the thread?

NY-23 is still counting but any other elections will be held concurrent with the GE for super short terms or not held at all.

Oh, ok, I wasn't following that final results haven't come in yet. I'll update. 

[Oryxslayer]

Are we done with these for the year and should I unsticky the thread?

NY-23 is still counting but any other elections will be held concurrent with the GE for super short terms or not held at all.

Oh, ok, I wasn't following that final results haven't come in yet. I'll update. 

They almost all came in just now, looks like it will end in a day or two.

Niagara County results:
Jacobs 14,099
McMurray 12,041

https://buffalonews.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/near-final-vote-count-pulls-mcmurray-to-within-5-3-points-of-jacobs-in-ny/article_306a4e0e-c615-11ea-8392-53d33d3493d2.html

[IAMCANADIAN]

https://twitter.com/CraigCaplan/status/1285277732235104258

so we have not received the final results but Chris Jacobs is being sworn in?

How ridiculous is that.