Congressional Special Election (last call! unstickied after NY-27 final results)

[Lognog]

Please God let this hold:

Nathan McMurrayDem.572 51.7%
Chris JacobsRep.518 46.8
Duane WhitmerLib.13  1.2
Michael GammarielloGreen 4 0.4

would mail ins lean Republican

[LimoLiberal]

Please God let this hold:

Nathan McMurrayDem.572 51.7%
Chris JacobsRep.518 46.8
Duane WhitmerLib.13  1.2
Michael GammarielloGreen 4 0.4

would mail ins lean Republican

According to twitter, mail-ins look good for McMurray:

https://twitter.com/DaveGreber4/status/1275601078483136519

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

McMurray winning would ensure that Republicans never cracked 200 seats in this Congress despite that being the number called for them on election night in 2018 (due to NC09 debacle).

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/Elections_Daily/status/1275612030884556800

Note that Elections Daily is calling it for Jacobs. His State Senate district is also entirely within Erie County so I'd expect him to overperform Generic R there.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Calling it for Jacobs. He's up by 33 points with 4% in.

[Holmes]

Wulfric, not saying Jacobs won’t win but with so many mail votes, I’d wait a bit longer before making any calls.

[2016]

Please God let this hold:

Nathan McMurrayDem.572 51.7%
Chris JacobsRep.518 46.8
Duane WhitmerLib.13  1.2
Michael GammarielloGreen 4 0.4

would mail ins lean Republican

According to twitter, mail-ins look good for McMurray:

https://twitter.com/DaveGreber4/status/1275601078483136519

NBC NEWS has 28 % of the vote reported in NY-27 Special

Jacobs (R) 40,019 Votes = 68.9 %
McMurray (D) 17,072 Votes = 29.4 %

This one is DONE! The Democrat ain't making up 23K Votes on Absentees.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Safe R seat votes like a Safe R seat? Shocker.

[LimoLiberal]

Please God let this hold:

Nathan McMurrayDem.572 51.7%
Chris JacobsRep.518 46.8
Duane WhitmerLib.13  1.2
Michael GammarielloGreen 4 0.4

would mail ins lean Republican

According to twitter, mail-ins look good for McMurray:

https://twitter.com/DaveGreber4/status/1275601078483136519

NBC NEWS has 28 % of the vote reported in NY-27 Special

Jacobs (R) 40,019 Votes = 68.9 %
McMurray (D) 17,072 Votes = 29.4 %

This one is DONE! The Democrat ain't making up 23K Votes on Absentees.

NBC News has the count wrong. Their total (vastly different from NYT and the NY Board of Elections) has Jacobs leading 21,410-9053 in Erie County. This is the exact return for the ENTIRE district on the NY BOE site as of now: https://nyenr.elections.ny.gov/

My guess is that NBC News mistakenly added the total results to Erie County. There's really no results from Erie County yet.

[2016]

Please God let this hold:

Nathan McMurrayDem.572 51.7%
Chris JacobsRep.518 46.8
Duane WhitmerLib.13  1.2
Michael GammarielloGreen 4 0.4

would mail ins lean Republican

According to twitter, mail-ins look good for McMurray:

https://twitter.com/DaveGreber4/status/1275601078483136519

NBC NEWS has 28 % of the vote reported in NY-27 Special

Jacobs (R) 40,019 Votes = 68.9 %
McMurray (D) 17,072 Votes = 29.4 %

This one is DONE! The Democrat ain't making up 23K Votes on Absentees.

NBC News has the count wrong. Their total (vastly different from NYT and the NY Board of Elections) has Jacobs leading 21,410-9053 in Erie County. This is the exact return for the ENTIRE district on the NY BOE site as of now: https://nyenr.elections.ny.gov/

My guess is that NBC News mistakenly added the total results to Erie County. There's really no results from Erie County yet.

They have Edison Research who counts the Ballots. This District doesn't just represent Erie County! Give up MAN!

[2016]

Now they have almost 40 % of the District IN with Jacobs leading by 29K Votes. I expect this to be called very soon.

[Badger]

Now they have almost 40 % of the District IN with Jacobs leading by 29K Votes. I expect this to be called very soon.

AOC resoundingly won her primary.

Happy to spoil your night.

[2016]

And here we go

NBC NEWS PROJECTION

Republican Chris Jacobs wins NY-27 Special Election!

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Wasserman's seen enough and has also called this for Jacobs.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Proud to have been the first to make the call tonight.

[LimoLiberal]

Looks like Jacobs won, he's doing well enough in the Erie County election day vote that the absentees can't save McMurray.

I'm increasingly worried about the partisan disparity in the use of mail-ins vs absentees and how it will affect how races are counted. No one needs to be calling races when half of the vote comes from mail-ins that won't be counted for a week and could be totally different from the election day vote.

Garcia won election day in CA-25 with more than 70% of the vote. Election day votes are a tiny percentage of the total in VBM-heavy California. But imagine a scenario where 50K ballots are cast by mail to be counted in the week after the election and 50K ballots are cast on election day. GOP voters, heeding the calls of voter fraud from Trump, show up in droves on election day and those votes go 70-30 for the Republican candidate. Democratic voters, more fearful of COVID and not scared of voter fraud, dominate mail-ins and they go 71-29 for the Democratic candidate. On election night the Republican is dominating, outlets call the election for him/her and people move on. But as mail-ins are counted in the next week, the margin gradually narrows all the way from 70-30 to a slight Democratic lead. The calls of voter fraud, vote-rigging, Democratic cheating, etc. would be massive. It could spark a full-blown legitimacy crisis over any number of elections.

Even people intensely plugged into electoral politics are having a hard time conceptualizing that the gap between election day and absentee voting behaviors could be so different. But I fear this may become reality as Republicans increasingly turn against VBM.

[Coastal Elitist]

Well Jacobs is under investigation, but this is a very Republican District...

Since he doesn't have the incumbency advantage that Collins had, I'll make the following prediction.

Nate McMurray (D) 50%
Chris Jacobs (R) 49%
Duane Whitmer (L) 0.6%
Michael Giammaerllo (G) 0.4%

lol

[NewYorkExpress]

Well Jacobs is under investigation, but this is a very Republican District...

Since he doesn't have the incumbency advantage that Collins had, I'll make the following prediction.

Nate McMurray (D) 50%
Chris Jacobs (R) 49%
Duane Whitmer (L) 0.6%
Michael Giammaerllo (G) 0.4%

lol

I will accept my humble pie with dignity.

[Xing]

Pretty much to be expected with not-Chris Collins as the Republican candidate. I imagine this will tighten somewhat as we get more mail-in votes, though.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Please God let this hold:

Nathan McMurrayDem.572 51.7%
Chris JacobsRep.518 46.8
Duane WhitmerLib.13  1.2
Michael GammarielloGreen 4 0.4

would mail ins lean Republican

According to twitter, mail-ins look good for McMurray:

https://twitter.com/DaveGreber4/status/1275601078483136519

NBC NEWS has 28 % of the vote reported in NY-27 Special

Jacobs (R) 40,019 Votes = 68.9 %
McMurray (D) 17,072 Votes = 29.4 %

This one is DONE! The Democrat ain't making up 23K Votes on Absentees.

NBC News has the count wrong. Their total (vastly different from NYT and the NY Board of Elections) has Jacobs leading 21,410-9053 in Erie County. This is the exact return for the ENTIRE district on the NY BOE site as of now: https://nyenr.elections.ny.gov/

My guess is that NBC News mistakenly added the total results to Erie County. There's really no results from Erie County yet.

They have Edison Research who counts the Ballots. This District doesn't just represent Erie County! Give up MAN!

Why are you acting like the Erie part of the district is dem? Are you stupid? Trump won the seat 60-35 and the Erie part 59-37.

[n1240]

Wyoming and Livingston have reported their absentee ballots, the swings are quite impressive and may serve as an early datapoint given this is one of the first D vs R races with more than half of the vote being absentee rather election day.

Livingston County Election Day: Jacobs 64.0% McMurray 33.1% (Jacobs+30.9)
Livingston Absentee: McMurray 69.7% Jacobs 28.7% (McMurray+41)
Livingston Total: Jacobs 53.1% McMurray 46.9% (Jacobs+6.2)
72 point swing between e-day and absentee

Wyoming County Election Day: Jacobs 78.4% McMurray 17.9% (Jacobs+60.5)
Wyoming Absentee: McMurray 50.4% Jacobs 44.3% (McMurray+6.1%)
Wyoming Total: Jacobs 62.0% McMurray 33.4% (Jacobs+28.6%)
66.6 point swing between e-day and absentee

Still seems unlikely that McMurray will win but he's not doing too much worse in Livingston/Wyoming compared to 2018, 4% and 1% worse respectively. The election day margins in Erie and Niagara, both of which McMurray may need to win (or at least drive up the margin in Erie) are too much to overcome relative to the current D/R advantage in absentee returns in these counties. Jacobs probably wins by 4% or so at this rate I'd imagine.

[LimoLiberal]

Wyoming and Livingston have reported their absentee ballots, the swings are quite impressive and may serve as an early datapoint given this is one of the first D vs R races with more than half of the vote being absentee rather election day.

Livingston County Election Day: Jacobs 64.0% McMurray 33.1% (Jacobs+30.9)
Livingston Absentee: McMurray 69.7% Jacobs 28.7% (McMurray+41)
Livingston Total: Jacobs 53.1% McMurray 46.9% (Jacobs+6.2)
72 point swing between e-day and absentee

Wyoming County Election Day: Jacobs 78.4% McMurray 17.9% (Jacobs+60.5)
Wyoming Absentee: McMurray 50.4% Jacobs 44.3% (McMurray+6.1%)
Wyoming Total: Jacobs 62.0% McMurray 33.4% (Jacobs+28.6%)
66.6 point swing between e-day and absentee

Still seems unlikely that McMurray will win but he's not doing too much worse in Livingston/Wyoming compared to 2018, 4% and 1% worse respectively. The election day margins in Erie and Niagara, both of which McMurray may need to win (or at least drive up the margin in Erie) are too much to overcome relative to the current D/R advantage in absentee returns in these counties. Jacobs probably wins by 4% or so at this rate I'd imagine.

Where are you seeing the updated results?

[n1240]

Wyoming and Livingston have reported their absentee ballots, the swings are quite impressive and may serve as an early datapoint given this is one of the first D vs R races with more than half of the vote being absentee rather election day.

Livingston County Election Day: Jacobs 64.0% McMurray 33.1% (Jacobs+30.9)
Livingston Absentee: McMurray 69.7% Jacobs 28.7% (McMurray+41)
Livingston Total: Jacobs 53.1% McMurray 46.9% (Jacobs+6.2)
72 point swing between e-day and absentee

Wyoming County Election Day: Jacobs 78.4% McMurray 17.9% (Jacobs+60.5)
Wyoming Absentee: McMurray 50.4% Jacobs 44.3% (McMurray+6.1%)
Wyoming Total: Jacobs 62.0% McMurray 33.4% (Jacobs+28.6%)
66.6 point swing between e-day and absentee

Still seems unlikely that McMurray will win but he's not doing too much worse in Livingston/Wyoming compared to 2018, 4% and 1% worse respectively. The election day margins in Erie and Niagara, both of which McMurray may need to win (or at least drive up the margin in Erie) are too much to overcome relative to the current D/R advantage in absentee returns in these counties. Jacobs probably wins by 4% or so at this rate I'd imagine.

Where are you seeing the updated results?

County websites and it seems NYTimes has picked up on them as well, can compare them to results on BOE which doesn't really update until certification

[LimoLiberal]

It's been 14 days and only 2 of 8 counties in NY-27 have released absentee results. 

[LimoLiberal]

It's been 14 days and only 2 of 8 counties in NY-27 have released absentee results. 

Uhhhh

https://twitter.com/Nate_McMurray/status/1280671920338481152

This is a higher percentage than he received against Collins in 2018.

Are we sure the Erie county mail-ins can't put McMurray over the top?