Congressional Special Election (last call! unstickied after NY-27 final results)

[Skill and Chance]

lmao

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/two-special-elections-on-tuesday-could-hint-at-another-blue-wave-in-2020/amp/

I mean, WI-07 wasn't bad at all.

No, but it is funny that the narrative they tried to build up fell flat. Tiffany performed very similarly to Walker in 2018, not like Kelly or Vukmir. Underperforming Trump by a fair amount in a special election is expected in a rural Romney +2/Trump +20 type of district. These results, if you want to extrapolate them, indicate a very competitive Wisconsin in 2020, not a blue wave.

It COULD be indicative of a blue wave, given that Dems haven't completely collapsed in the rurals like both sides were assuming.

lol

They lost by 14 instead of 21.

Sigh. As even the most cursory understanding of political trends could tell you, fast trending areas often solidify faster at the Presidential than local level. The fact that some ancestral Rs in IL-06 voted R for Governor in 2018, or that Tiffany underperformed with some ancesteral Ds, means absolutely nothing for the Presidential race.

Tiffany also got almost exactly the same % of the total vote as Trump.  The larger margin in 2016 was almost entirely because of the 3rd party vote. 

[lfromnj]

https://www.facebook.com/ChristyForCongress/
She conceded the race.

[I’m not Stu]

Is Garcia going to be an average forgettable Republican?

[Nyvin]

Is Garcia going to be an average forgettable Republican?

yes.

[Mike Thick]

Is Garcia going to be an average forgettable Republican?

They'll try to make him into the next Crenshaw but probably, yeah

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Regrettably, the DDNN decision desk calls the race for Garcia

[Gracile]

Not that it matters, but Los Angeles and Ventura dumped a bunch of their votes today and Garcia's lead is now under 10%:

https://electionresults.sos.ca.gov/special/us-rep/district/25

Christy Smith (D) - 78,234 (45.1%)
Mike Garcia (R) - 95,088 (54.9%)

Smith won both counties' batches narrowly.

----

Los Angeles County also estimates that they only have 1,285 votes left to count, so the final margin likely won't be dramatically different from what it currently is at:

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1261453525629890560

[Skill and Chance]

Not that it matters, but Los Angeles and Ventura dumped a bunch of their votes today and Garcia's lead is now under 10%:

https://electionresults.sos.ca.gov/special/us-rep/district/25

Christy Smith (D) - 78,234 (45.1%)
Mike Garcia (R) - 95,088 (54.9%)

Smith won both counties' batches narrowly.

----

Los Angeles County also estimates that they only have 1,285 votes left to count, so the final margin likely won't be dramatically different from what it currently is at:

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1261453525629890560

That's strong enough that he can plausibly hold the seat in the fall.

[Annatar]

If Garcia wins by around 9.5% which is likely, then in the 6 congressional special elections that have occurred since the 2018 midterms, Republicans have outperformed Trump by 1.5% on average, in the 8 congressional special elections that occurred between 2016-2018, Republican ran 10.6% behind Trump on average, so since the midterms in congressional special elections, Republicans have been doing 12.1% better than they were in 2016-18 and are running even with Trump on average.

[Orwell]

If Garcia wins by around 9.5% which is likely, then in the 6 congressional special elections that have occurred since the 2018 midterms, Republicans have outperformed Trump by 1.5% on average, in the 8 congressional special elections that occurred between 2016-2018, Republican ran 10.6% behind Trump on average, so since the midterms in congressional special elections, Republicans have been doing 12.1% better than they were in 2016-18 and are running even with Trump on average.

A lot of the 2016-2018 races were special though due to the incumbent messing up so that could be why for a few.

[2016]

Why does this Thread still say quote "NY-27 TBD". It's not TBD. The Special will be held June 23rd!

[Coastal Elitist]

Final results for CA-25 are in and the margin did not change: https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/prior-elections/special-elections/2019-cd25/official-results-general/

Mike Garcia 95,667 54.9%
Christy Smith 78,721 45.1%

Turnout 41%

So much for the margin decreasing to low single digits like so many claimed.

[lfromnj]

Impressive show by Mike Garcia,although turnout disparities definitely helped him win the election by such a large margin, its also likely he won many swing middle income Hispanics and other groups.
Also why does the counting only finish 4 weeks after the election? This is unacceptable.

[Tender Branson]

NY-27 prediction:

55% Jacobs (R)
41% McMurray (D)
  2% LIB-guy
  2% Green-guy

[NewYorkExpress]

Well Jacobs is under investigation, but this is a very Republican District...

Since he doesn't have the incumbency advantage that Collins had, I'll make the following prediction.

Nate McMurray (D) 50%
Chris Jacobs (R) 49%
Duane Whitmer (L) 0.6%
Michael Giammaerllo (G) 0.4%

[Strong Candidate]

Well Jacobs is under investigation, but this is a very Republican District...

Since he doesn't have the incumbency advantage that Collins had, I'll make the following prediction.

Nate McMurray (D) 50%
Chris Jacobs (R) 49%
Duane Whitmer (L) 0.6%
Michael Giammaerllo (G) 0.4%

Jacobs was already cleared of the vote fraud allegation, and most of the other negatives he possesses are things that the district is liable to lap right up.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Guys I think this is over, Mike Garcia has won

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Results page  for tonight's barnburner: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/06/23/us/elections/results-new-york-house-district-27-special-general-election.amp.html

[Lognog]

Results page  for tonight's barnburner: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/06/23/us/elections/results-new-york-house-district-27-special-general-election.amp.html

are we really getting any results tonight?

[Oryxslayer]

Results page  for tonight's barnburner: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/06/23/us/elections/results-new-york-house-district-27-special-general-election.amp.html

are we really getting any results tonight?

Yes. But not the large early vote, so tonights results will be indicators towards the final result rather than definitive conclusions.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Results page  for tonight's barnburner: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/06/23/us/elections/results-new-york-house-district-27-special-general-election.amp.html

are we really getting any results tonight?

Yes

[2016]

Jacobs will win this quite handily I think. He doesn't have the skeletons of Chris Collins.
If he doesn't that would be a huge upset.

[2016]

Results page  for tonight's barnburner: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/06/23/us/elections/results-new-york-house-district-27-special-general-election.amp.html

are we really getting any results tonight?

Yes. But not the large early vote, so tonights results will be indicators towards the final result rather than definitive conclusions.

I doubt NY-27 will have that large of an early Vote. This isn't New York City! We may even know the Winner tonight.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Please God let this hold:

Nathan McMurrayDem.572 51.7%
Chris JacobsRep.518 46.8
Duane WhitmerLib.13  1.2
Michael GammarielloGreen 4 0.4

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

And Jacobs up 59%-40% now