Congressional Special Election (last call! unstickied after NY-27 final results)
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Author Topic: Congressional Special Election (last call! unstickied after NY-27 final results)  (Read 166452 times)
Beet
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« Reply #1725 on: May 12, 2020, 09:38:48 PM »

93% is in and only 178,000 votes. In 2018 it was 322,000 total.
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #1726 on: May 12, 2020, 09:41:34 PM »

93% is in and only 178,000 votes. In 2018 it was 322,000 total.

All this is saying is that a special election in the middle of a pandemic is going to have lower turnout than a midterm election that shattered all turnout records, which everyone already knew.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #1727 on: May 12, 2020, 09:58:46 PM »

Polls closing in CA 25
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #1728 on: May 12, 2020, 10:05:45 PM »

93% is in and only 178,000 votes. In 2018 it was 322,000 total.

That's downright amazing, considering the circumstances.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #1729 on: May 12, 2020, 10:07:37 PM »

Garcia out to a SIXTEEN POINT LEAD with 9% in
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lfromnj
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« Reply #1730 on: May 12, 2020, 10:10:04 PM »

93% is in and only 178,000 votes. In 2018 it was 322,000 total.

That's downright amazing, considering the circumstances.

Yup Tiffany got like double the votes of Valadao in 2018 !.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #1731 on: May 12, 2020, 10:11:32 PM »

Mike Garcia Republican 77,459 55.7%
Christy Smith Democrat 61,679 44.3

139,138 votes, 247 of 411 precincts reporting
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #1732 on: May 12, 2020, 10:19:35 PM »

This is over. Maybe this will encourage Democrats to take it more seriously in November
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Arizona Iced Tea
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« Reply #1733 on: May 12, 2020, 10:20:27 PM »

This was quicker than I thought
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W
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« Reply #1734 on: May 12, 2020, 10:25:53 PM »

Forgot to "call it" for bragging rights but yeah this was no surprise. Absentee ballot submission statistics showed like 45% republican and 30% democrat. basically any dem was gonna get whalloped here but smith in my humble opinion was an especially atrocious fit for the district due to her easy to take down establishment reputation and literally degrading garcia's service. That said, hoping the anti-Trump wave will wipe this low turnout election clean from our concerns.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #1735 on: May 12, 2020, 10:51:41 PM »

Candidate   Party   Votes   Pct.   
Mike Garcia
Republican
78,701   55.9%   
Christy Smith
Democrat
62,054   44.1   

Lmao his vote margin just went up
12 points looks really hard, anyone remember TJ cox's comeback, how much was that?
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #1736 on: May 12, 2020, 11:09:48 PM »

Cox was I think 10 or 11 points. Cisneros was the next most impressive at an original 8 point deficit. Then Rouda and Porter at 6 or so.
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« Reply #1737 on: May 13, 2020, 12:33:16 AM »

Cox was I think 10 or 11 points. Cisneros was the next most impressive at an original 8 point deficit. Then Rouda and Porter at 6 or so.
Actually, Cisneros had a 3 point deficit on election day, while Porter had a 4 point deficit. I think Rouda actually was already in the lead on election day too.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #1738 on: May 13, 2020, 12:45:40 AM »

Cox was I think 10 or 11 points. Cisneros was the next most impressive at an original 8 point deficit. Then Rouda and Porter at 6 or so.
Actually, Cisneros had a 3 point deficit on election day, while Porter had a 4 point deficit. I think Rouda actually was already in the lead on election day too.
Hmm, I'm remembering things very differently. Would be great if there's some old TV footage or something showing the totals.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #1739 on: May 13, 2020, 12:56:33 AM »

lmao

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/two-special-elections-on-tuesday-could-hint-at-another-blue-wave-in-2020/amp/
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #1740 on: May 13, 2020, 01:07:00 AM »


I mean, WI-07 wasn't bad at all.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #1741 on: May 13, 2020, 01:15:24 AM »


No, but it is funny that the narrative they tried to build up fell flat. Tiffany performed very similarly to Walker in 2018, not like Kelly or Vukmir. Underperforming Trump by a fair amount in a special election is expected in a rural Romney +2/Trump +20 type of district. These results, if you want to extrapolate them, indicate a very competitive Wisconsin in 2020, not a blue wave.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #1742 on: May 13, 2020, 02:08:35 AM »


No, but it is funny that the narrative they tried to build up fell flat. Tiffany performed very similarly to Walker in 2018, not like Kelly or Vukmir. Underperforming Trump by a fair amount in a special election is expected in a rural Romney +2/Trump +20 type of district. These results, if you want to extrapolate them, indicate a very competitive Wisconsin in 2020, not a blue wave.

Yeah I literally said the article title was garbage, at the very least they could have said it could point to the environment in 2020(which it really doesn't)
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #1743 on: May 13, 2020, 09:19:53 AM »


No, but it is funny that the narrative they tried to build up fell flat. Tiffany performed very similarly to Walker in 2018, not like Kelly or Vukmir. Underperforming Trump by a fair amount in a special election is expected in a rural Romney +2/Trump +20 type of district. These results, if you want to extrapolate them, indicate a very competitive Wisconsin in 2020, not a blue wave.
It COULD be indicative of a blue wave, given that Dems haven't completely collapsed in the rurals like both sides were assuming.
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Person Man
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« Reply #1744 on: May 13, 2020, 09:32:20 AM »


No, but it is funny that the narrative they tried to build up fell flat. Tiffany performed very similarly to Walker in 2018, not like Kelly or Vukmir. Underperforming Trump by a fair amount in a special election is expected in a rural Romney +2/Trump +20 type of district. These results, if you want to extrapolate them, indicate a very competitive Wisconsin in 2020, not a blue wave.
It COULD be indicative of a blue wave, given that Dems haven't completely collapsed in the rurals like both sides were assuming.


It's an overperformance of 2018.
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Libertas Vel Mors
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« Reply #1745 on: May 13, 2020, 11:22:19 AM »


No, but it is funny that the narrative they tried to build up fell flat. Tiffany performed very similarly to Walker in 2018, not like Kelly or Vukmir. Underperforming Trump by a fair amount in a special election is expected in a rural Romney +2/Trump +20 type of district. These results, if you want to extrapolate them, indicate a very competitive Wisconsin in 2020, not a blue wave.
It COULD be indicative of a blue wave, given that Dems haven't completely collapsed in the rurals like both sides were assuming.


lol
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Person Man
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« Reply #1746 on: May 13, 2020, 01:13:47 PM »


No, but it is funny that the narrative they tried to build up fell flat. Tiffany performed very similarly to Walker in 2018, not like Kelly or Vukmir. Underperforming Trump by a fair amount in a special election is expected in a rural Romney +2/Trump +20 type of district. These results, if you want to extrapolate them, indicate a very competitive Wisconsin in 2020, not a blue wave.
It COULD be indicative of a blue wave, given that Dems haven't completely collapsed in the rurals like both sides were assuming.


lol

They lost by 14 instead of 21.
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Libertas Vel Mors
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« Reply #1747 on: May 13, 2020, 02:29:57 PM »


No, but it is funny that the narrative they tried to build up fell flat. Tiffany performed very similarly to Walker in 2018, not like Kelly or Vukmir. Underperforming Trump by a fair amount in a special election is expected in a rural Romney +2/Trump +20 type of district. These results, if you want to extrapolate them, indicate a very competitive Wisconsin in 2020, not a blue wave.
It COULD be indicative of a blue wave, given that Dems haven't completely collapsed in the rurals like both sides were assuming.


lol

They lost by 14 instead of 21.

Sigh. As even the most cursory understanding of political trends could tell you, fast trending areas often solidify faster at the Presidential than local level. The fact that some ancestral Rs in IL-06 voted R for Governor in 2018, or that Tiffany underperformed with some ancesteral Ds, means absolutely nothing for the Presidential race.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1748 on: May 13, 2020, 03:17:38 PM »

The fact that WI-07 overperformed by 7% compared to 2018's blue wave year is notable, even given the circumstances.

Can't really draw any official conclusions on CA-25 until the final #s come in
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Gracile
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« Reply #1749 on: May 13, 2020, 03:42:18 PM »

Smith has conceded:

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