Tim Kaine pulls ahead by 2% in latest Rasmussen Poll

[Moooooo]

How is the Washington Post when it comes polls.

[© tweed]

How is the Washington Post when it comes polls.

They are bad, bottom-tier according to Vorlon.  But Scotty did well in 2004, and they're confirming his numbers, so the poll isn't all that outrageous.

I'd like to see a Mason-Dixon poll out of Virginia by Nov 8 before I make my prediction.

[Moooooo]

They are bad, bottom-tier according to Vorlon.  But Scotty did well in 2004, and they're confirming his numbers, so the poll isn't all that outrageous.

I'd like to see a Mason-Dixon poll out of Virginia by Nov 8 before I make my prediction.

Can you link me to the threat where Vorlon discusses different polling frims?

[© tweed]

They are bad, bottom-tier according to Vorlon.  But Scotty did well in 2004, and they're confirming his numbers, so the poll isn't all that outrageous.

I'd like to see a Mason-Dixon poll out of Virginia by Nov 8 before I make my prediction.

Can you link me to the threat where Vorlon discusses different polling frims?

Here you go

Gallup
TIPP
Teeter/Hart (Wall Street Journal)
Terrance Group(Battleground)
Harris
Fox
Mason-Dixon
AP/Ipsos-Reed

Look at these, burn the rest.... IMHO

I thought you said Democracy Corps was in the first tier also?

They are, but they do very few polls... look at the odd one they do do..

The full list:

The Top Tier... Pretty darn good, most of the time...

Gallup (the real one, not the CNN/USAToday/Tracking version)
Battleground (Goaes/Lake/Perry) (mild GOP bias, maybe 1-2 points)
Tetter/Hart (Wall Street Journal/NBC News) (maybe a marginal GOP bias)
Mason Dixon - Damn good firm...
Fox News (Yes, liberals, check their historic record...)
Democracy Corps (Yes Republicans, James Carville's firm knows what they are doing.. marginal Dem bias)
TIPP/Infometrica (Investors Business Daily)
Snell/Perry/Lake
Yerxa/DDC
AP/Ipsos Reed
Harris

Addition to Original List:

POA (Public Opinion Strategies) - Very Good firm - with the HUGE caution that they will also, if required, produce a poll that says anything you want that poll to say...   They are "campaign pollsters" not media pollsters.  Rarely "officially" release polls anyway so likely will not see to many from these guys anyhow.

The Second Tier - Interesting, not worthless, but don't bet the farm....

Rasmussen (Misses the top tier, but not by much...still on "probation" after their 2000 presidential call)
ABC News (Strange weighting, but knocking on the top tier door)
Survey USA
ARG
Research 2000
PEW - very consistent, but has a structural 4 point Democratic bias.
Quinnipiac - Only University poll (I am familiar with) that's NOT totally $%$ing useless...

Third Rate...

CBS/NYTimes..

ok..they got LUCKY in 2000, but from 1980 to 1996 they AVERAGED missing the actually result by 2 and a half times the margin of error of their poll! - If they do ok this year, I might believe them.... maybe...

Newsweek..

(Historically waaaaay off the mark)

Time

(see Newsweek)

All off on his Own..

Zogby gets his own Category.  He is brilliant, and erratic. 

You would be crazy to ignore him, you would be just as crazy to take him at face value,

For the record, in 2002, he polled 17 races, he got 12 right, 5 wrong... 

Zogby is the "Drudge Report" of pollsters... he's often utterly wrong, but right just enough to keep you reading...

He doesn't mention the Wash Post in there, but I remember him saying at one point that they aren't very good.

[CARLHAYDEN]

This is only a little better than a 'push poll.'

Absolutely NO mention of two major issues in the campaign:

The Right to Keep and Bear Arms
Illegal Immigration

Also there is a brief mention of the following:

The number of people who believe Kaine is too liberal has jumped nine percentage points, to 40 percent, since the September poll. And more people believe Kilgore would hold down taxes, if elected.

Kilgore appears to have won over some voters who don't see Kaine as a viable stand-in for Warner. "I think I'm going to go back over to [the] Republicans this time," said Richard Green, 67, a retired banker in Manassas who voted for Warner in 2001.

[© tweed]

Carl, I don't see much to suggest that the illegal immigration issue is anywhere near as big as you seem to think it is.

[A18]

Uh, you don't need to ask people about specific issues to get an accurate result on the horserace numbers.

It's not as if they're going to ask about illegal immigration on the ballot.

[MissCatholic]

Kilgore refusing to meet bush may hurt him.

But i have said from the beginning that he will win. This is the first poll that i have seen with Kaine up so it could be close. I really really hope that he wins but i always think bad thoughts prior to results.

I had a gut feeling in 2004 that we would win Wisconsin and New Hampshire but i was worried about Ohio. once the result came in i wasnt surprised.

i would be surprised if kaine won.