Tim Kaine pulls ahead by 2% in latest Rasmussen Poll

[TheresNoMoney]

Looks like Mr. Kaine is still in this one:

Kaine 46%
Kilgore 44%
Potts: 4%
 
500 Likely Voters.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2005/Virginia%20Governor_October%2028.htm

[CARLHAYDEN]

Scott's messing up again.

[Moooooo]

Sounds good, but Im sticking to my original prediction of GOTV will win this race.

[TheresNoMoney]

Kaine needs to be up at least 2%-4% in the polls to win this race.

From what I've read, the GOP will have a stronger GOTV.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Actually, what you need to do is to look at the motivations of the 'undecideds.'

They pretty much agree that Kilgore is a medicore candidate, BUT, they also are largely in agreement that Kaine is more likely to increase their taxes, and less likely to do anything about violent crime.

As such, most of the undecideds will reluctantly vote for Kilgore.

[minionofmidas]

Is that your interpretation or is that (middle paragraph) from Rasmussen, Carl?

Interesting tidbits from the article:
"This is the third straight 2005 Virginia election poll with "leaners" included in the totals. Leaners are those who initially do not express a preference for either major party candidate but lean one way or the other when asked a follow-up question.

Without leaners, Tim Kaine has a one-point edge, 42% to 41%, over Jerry Kilgore. " ie, Kaine has a larger percentage of semi-sorta-undecideds included in his figures than Kilgore. Hard to say who that is good news for, I could spin that either way.

"Overall, Kilgore is viewed favorably by 56% of Virginia voters and unfavorably by 38%. For Kaine, the numbers are 62% favorable and 34% unfavorable. These numbers highlight a huge difference between the Virginia election and this year's contest in New Jersey. In the New Jersey race, neither candidate is viewed favorably by more than 41% of voters."
Either Virginians are just much gentler people than Jerseyans (doubt that), or contrary to the general mood in this thread neither candidate is at all "mediocre", or there's simply been less negative campaigning (would make sense, with Potts in the race and all, but again, not the vibe I'm getting here).

[Democratic Hawk]

Looks like it's going down the wire this one and I think Nicks right, it's all going to boil down to GOTV

Dave

[Flying Dog]

One thing is for sure, its gonna be close

[ian]

GO KAINE!!!!!!!

[nini2287]

Is that your interpretation or is that (middle paragraph) from Rasmussen, Carl?

Interesting tidbits from the article:
"This is the third straight 2005 Virginia election poll with "leaners" included in the totals. Leaners are those who initially do not express a preference for either major party candidate but lean one way or the other when asked a follow-up question.

Without leaners, Tim Kaine has a one-point edge, 42% to 41%, over Jerry Kilgore. " ie, Kaine has a larger percentage of semi-sorta-undecideds included in his figures than Kilgore. Hard to say who that is good news for, I could spin that either way.

"Overall, Kilgore is viewed favorably by 56% of Virginia voters and unfavorably by 38%. For Kaine, the numbers are 62% favorable and 34% unfavorable. These numbers highlight a huge difference between the Virginia election and this year's contest in New Jersey. In the New Jersey race, neither candidate is viewed favorably by more than 41% of voters."
Either Virginians are just much gentler people than Jerseyans (doubt that), or contrary to the general mood in this thread neither candidate is at all "mediocre", or there's simply been less negative campaigning (would make sense, with Potts in the race and all, but again, not the vibe I'm getting here).

I'm surprised that the favorables are that high, with both parties nominating mediocre candidates and the negative ads, I thought Viriginians wouldn't be enthusastic about either candidate.

[Max Power]

500 likely voters. This is a poor sample.

[TheresNoMoney]

500 likely voters. This is a poor sample.

That's the sample size most polling companies use.

[ATFFL]

500 likely voters. This is a poor sample.

That's the sample size most polling companies use.

Most go 600-800.

Another problem with Ras this year is he is doing nothing but one day falsh polls.  I was hoping he would do a daily tracking poll for the last few weeks for the races.

[A18]

Wow, this is going down to the wire. Less than two weeks left...

[Moooooo]

I expect Kilgore to win.  He'll have the money and man power down the stretch.

Not to mention the GOP's 72 hour plan has worked like a dream over the past 2 election cycles.

[Flying Dog]

I just have a gutt feeling that Potts is going to do poorly, like >2

[phk]

Is Bush having any affect on Kilgore?

[Moooooo]

Is Bush having any affect on Kilgore?

Sure is.  Prime example:  Bush was in VA a couple days ago.  Kilgore totally avoided him.

[Flying Dog]

New strategy for vunerable republicans: AVOID BUSH

[A18]

According to this poll, Bush has a 51% approval rating here.

[phk]

New strategy for vunerable republicans: AVOID BUSH

My governor is doing the same

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

New strategy for vunerable republicans: AVOID BUSH

My governor is doing the same

Yes, even Republicans with a 65% disapproval rating are avoiding him like the plague.

[TheresNoMoney]

Daily Kos is reporting that there is a new Washington Post poll out that has Kaine leading 47%-44%, with Potts at 4%.

Will try to find a link sometime tomorrow.

[Ben.]

Daily Kos is reporting that there is a new Washington Post poll out that has Kaine leading 47%-44%, with Potts at 4%.

Will try to find a link sometime tomorrow.

If it's true, then excellent!

[Alcon]

This was posted about six hours ago:

Scoonie's numbers confirmed

This one will be close.