Russia seizes Ukrainian ships near Crimea after firing at them

[Proto]

You are not aware of political situation in Ukraine. President poroshenko is very unpopular and has no chances to be reelected in March 2019. This  conflict allows him improving his rating and postpone the election as no election is possible under martial law that he has imposed.

[Proto]

On the other side, Russia's Putin is also interested in improving his rating that has fallen to 30% of  late. If he displays resolution and toughness during the conflict he is sure to gain some popularity. Tensions between Ukraine and Russia will escalate as it is in the interests of both rulers. Here much depends on Trump's position.

[Proto]

You can be sure he will choose the wrong one. Most likely, he will encourage Mr. Putin to "be strong"

If Trump orders American fleet to enter the Azov sea, which Russia considers its pocket sea, the war is inevitable.

[Proto]

Kinda strange that Poroshenko announced martial law only now. Like, every month dozens of people die in Donbass (for years!) and no casualities in this incident so far. Also i think Russia will return those ukrainians from ships back pretty fast.

You should have read my previous post.

[Proto]

And who has benefited from this conflict?

[Proto]

Well we are contractually obliged to defend Ukrainian sovereignty. I think it was the same deal that made them denuclearize.

The USA must defend Ukraine. That does not mean it must defend Poroshenko https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEKvNy69v-iGa7t0bvssb2TIqGAgEKg8IACoHCAowjtSUCjC30XQw_qe5AQ?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US%3Aen

[Proto]

Or the Street of Gibraltar and/or Suez Canal instead. The issue here is that Russia and Ukraine have a treaty from 2003 that grants free access to the Sea of Azov.

Russians are planning to replace Suez by another route https://sputniknews.com/business/201811011069409510-north-south-transport-corridor-suez-canal
I won't be surprised if they build alternatives to Gibraltar and Bosporus.

[Proto]

Ukraine sucks, let’s go my ancestral homeland Russia! Also if they are close enough to nuclear capabilities, there is a good chance that Russia will invade them and destroy them within a matter of weeks. And no one will be there to stop it bwahaha.

Ukraine has been a loyal US ally. The US will never allow Russia to invade Ukraine

[Proto]

The map above means nothing. Some people in these regions may sympathize Russia, and what of it? Putin will never dare to invade Ukraine.

[Proto]

The map above means nothing. Some people in these regions may sympathize Russia, and what of it? Putin will never dare to invade Ukraine.

Russia already invaded somewhere around 10%.

And got into much trouble. Living standards are getting worse, Putin' approval ratings having plunged to 30% - less tban Trump's ones.

[Proto]

Russia already invaded somewhere around 10%.

Bush at least invaded entire countries for his 30% approval.

Rather a subtle observation. I know in 2014 when Putin decided to occupy Crimea, some of his accomplices advised him to seize the whole of Ukraine. According to their plans Russians should have destroyed  military infrastructure in its Western part and then leave it creating a buffer sattelite state of Eastern ana Southern regions. Putin rejected the idea. Maybe now he regrets it.