Russia seizes Ukrainian ships near Crimea after firing at them

[Karpatsky]

Probably nothing will happen. This is SOP for Russia and it's probably been planned for a while; they do acts of blatant aggression every once in a while just to see how hard the West will push back. If we don't, it becomes the new normal. It's the same reason Russian fighters regularly 'accidentally' find themselves violating Swedish and Norwegian airspace, to see how fast we can intercept them and how vigorously we will protest.

The fact that Putin's approval ratings have been slipping recently probably doesn't hurt.

[Karpatsky]

I doubt this move helps Poroshenko that much. He's DOA for the next election. According to Wikipedia, he hasn't even decalred yet. Maybe he pulls a Hollande?

I certainly don't imagine so given all the effort he's already put in smearing his potential opponents.