AMA - IceSpear

[IceSpear]

Opinion on Baby Boomers impact on US politics


Also what do you think of this post(Not Mine but the guy who responded)

Nightmare scenario is this

Obama approvals down to the upper 20s low 30s in 2016.

Republicans lose Nothing while they gain Nevada Colorado

After 2016 that puts it as
Rep 56 Dem 44

Then in 2018 The republican president is as popular as Bush was in 2002 and Clinton in 1998
They gain Indiana, Missouri, Virginia,Ohio, Pennsilvania, Wisconson, Montana, West Virginia
Put it at
Rep 64 Dem 36

But the possibility of this happening are next to nothing  

LOL! The possibility of that happening is ZERO.
First of all, NO REPUBLICAN can win in 2016. Whether Hillary is the nominee or not.
Secondly, they won't gain Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Ohio. Not enough racist, old rednecks there.
Thirdly, a Republican president wouldn't be popular.

LOL, that post is hilarious. I'd guess it was a troll, but some Dem hacks here are unironically just like that even today, so it could very well have been real. Obviously the West Virginia part in particular made me chuckle though.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

why do you troll people like this:



You said you voted Lean D in the post, but there were no Lean D votes in the poll.

[RINO Tom]

What is the last year/decade you would have considered being a Log Cabin Republican?

[IceSpear]

why do you troll people like this:



You said you voted Lean D in the post, but there were no Lean D votes in the poll.

After reading Atlas #analysis about how "WWC" #populists now hate Trump, I changed my mind and switched my vote to safe D.

[IceSpear]

What is the last year/decade you would have considered being a Log Cabin Republican?

Probably well before the Log Cabin Republicans even existed. The 50s I guess? Though obviously inserting yourself 70+ years into the past is a difficult thing to imagine, I'm pretty sure I would've voted for Eisenhower.

[OSR stands with Israel]

How would you have voted in elections from 1896-1928

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Would Raese win statewide if he ran today?

[IceSpear]

How would you have voted in elections from 1896-1928

I'm of the opinion that "you" are nothing more than the sum of your own experiences. A version of me born in the 1800s would almost certainly bear very little resemblance to my current self, at least on a psychological level. So I can't confidently answer those questions. Unless you mean as my current self with hindsight.

[IceSpear]

Would Raese win statewide if he ran today?

Not against Manchin. I think he'd have done a few points worse than Morrisey. But against any other Democrat, yes.

[OSR stands with Israel]

How would you have voted in elections from 1896-1928

I'm of the opinion that "you" are nothing more than the sum of your own experiences. A version of me born in the 1800s would almost certainly bear very little resemblance to my current self, at least on a psychological level. So I can't confidently answer those questions. Unless you mean as my current self with hindsight.

Do current self without hindsight (So you don’t know things like the Depression happening, the Tea Pot Dome Scandal, or US entering WW1 in 1917 etc)



Reason asking that period is that period is the only one I think you would be a swing voter in


Before 1896: You would be a Republican and before that a Whig voter
1932-Present : Democratic every election except IKE’s two elections

[Calthrina950]

Icespear, I'm reposting this from a few months ago. These were questions from your "accolades" thread that you never responded to, and that I was still curious about:

I tried to tell you all. I really did. This is looking like a landslide, folks.

If you are referring to Nevada, you were absolutely correct. You were off in West Virginia, but Manchin failing to garner an absolute majority there and winning a minority of counties clearly indicates that the state is gone for Democrats in 2024, when he retires. You were also right about Tennessee and North Dakota.

Don't forget Oklahoma, WI-01, and FL-27! Where's Politician?

Honestly, I was struggling whether to predict a Manchin plurality or Morrisey plurality...so close.

That is true. But were you shocked by Braun and Hawley receiving absolute majorities in their states? They far outperformed their poll numbers. And both Bredesen and Heitkamp lost by ~ 10-11 points.

Missouri didn't shock me, I thought it was plausible Hawley could win by a modest margin. I chose to believe "high quality" Marist rather than going with my gut. That'll never happen again, lol. Donnelly losing by double digits was definitely surprising.

Democrats underperformed in so many of these races. Murphy and Cantwell failing to break 60%, Carper losing a county in Delaware, Stabenow being held to single digits, Donnelly losing by double digits, Gilibrand and Klobuchar losing many rural counties they carried last time, Brown winning by only six points, the same margin as in 2012, Manchin getting only a plurality, etc. Republicans underperformed too, as Romney is doing about 9% worse than he did in 2012, and lost Summit County to Jenny Wilson. Barrasso failed to break 70%. In fact, it looks like Mazie Hirono in Hawaii, of all people, might be the only Senatorial victor on either side of the spectrum to break 70%; even Bernie Sanders fell short.

There were some exceptions of course (Cardin got 64%, far higher than the 56% he received in 2012, O'Rourke came within 4 points of victory in Texas, Casey and Kaine both won by double digits and did better than in 2012). But overall, this election confirms that polarization is now the defining standard. What do you think about the fact that only Hirono will get over 70%? Or about polarization in general?

The questions are in bold.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Rate the racism levels of this area