Why did Walter Mondale get destroyed so badly in 1984?
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  Why did Walter Mondale get destroyed so badly in 1984?
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Author Topic: Why did Walter Mondale get destroyed so badly in 1984?  (Read 5455 times)
Cyrusman
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« on: November 24, 2018, 03:07:57 PM »

I wasn’t  alive at that time. What happened in that election? How did Reagan win every state except Minnesota?
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Computer89
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« Reply #1 on: November 24, 2018, 03:46:25 PM »

- Reagan was popular in 1984(His approval rating was 59% which matches his a popular vote %)

- The Economy was in much better shape in 1984 than in 1980

- Mondale was the VP to an unpopular President

- The 1980s were probably the least polarizing post-war decade other than the 1950s
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dw93
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« Reply #2 on: November 24, 2018, 11:17:33 PM »

No Democrat was beating Reagan in 1984. A better candidate would've made it closer, but Reagan still would've won.
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TheElectoralBoobyPrize
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« Reply #3 on: November 24, 2018, 11:43:41 PM »

I wonder if Reagan's margin was boosted a bit by people not wanting to throw out a third straight president/not wanting a 4th president in less than 10 years' time. Yes, Reagan was unbeatable, but that factor may have given him a couple extra points/few more states.
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pops
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« Reply #4 on: November 25, 2018, 02:47:45 AM »

I wonder if Reagan's margin was boosted a bit by people not wanting to throw out a third straight president/not wanting a 4th president in less than 10 years' time. Yes, Reagan was unbeatable, but that factor may have given him a couple extra points/few more states.

I don't totally doubt that this had some effect. Not a massive one, but enough to matter.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #5 on: November 25, 2018, 11:03:47 AM »

- Reagan was popular in 1984(His approval rating was 59% which matches his a popular vote %)

- The Economy was in much better shape in 1984 than in 1980

- Mondale was the VP to an unpopular President

- The 1980s were probably the least polarizing post-war decade other than the 1950s

Pretty mich this. Incredible how he turned this within two years, as Reagan was very unpopular in 1982.
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Computer89
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« Reply #6 on: November 25, 2018, 12:50:16 PM »

- Reagan was popular in 1984(His approval rating was 59% which matches his a popular vote %)

- The Economy was in much better shape in 1984 than in 1980

- Mondale was the VP to an unpopular President

- The 1980s were probably the least polarizing post-war decade other than the 1950s

Pretty mich this. Incredible how he turned this within two years, as Reagan was very unpopular in 1982.

Though even then the GOP didn’t do as bad in 1982 as they could have as they were able to hold on some of their house gains from 1980
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« Reply #7 on: November 25, 2018, 02:11:53 PM »

It should be noted, though, that unlike Goldwater in 1964 and McGovern in 1972 Mondale did manage to (barely) reach 40% of the popular vote (GHWB also fell below 40% in 1992, but it was a three-way race).
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TDAS04
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« Reply #8 on: November 25, 2018, 10:30:22 PM »

It should be noted, though, that unlike Goldwater in 1964 and McGovern in 1972 Mondale did manage to (barely) reach 40% of the popular vote (GHWB also fell below 40% in 1992, but it was a three-way race).

Funny how Mondale actually made the popular vote closer than Alton Parker, James Cox, or John Davis--each of whom carried at least 11 states, sweeping or almost sweeping the South.
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darklordoftech
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« Reply #9 on: November 25, 2018, 10:37:17 PM »

What was Mondale's message besides "I'll raise taxes" and "I support teachers' unions"?
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morgankingsley
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« Reply #10 on: November 25, 2018, 10:55:39 PM »

One important piece is individual states. Mondale almost won Massachusetts and Rhode island. If the odds were more pro mondale he could have gotten Maryland, Wisconsin, and new York. McGovern didn't almost win any states he lost, not even close. In all reality, had the odds been slightly more in his favor, he could have easily closed in many states and made the margin much smaller. It really was just a stroke of bad luck those results happened the way they did.
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Koorca Ton
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« Reply #11 on: November 25, 2018, 11:34:18 PM »

It should be noted, though, that unlike Goldwater in 1964 and McGovern in 1972 Mondale did manage to (barely) reach 40% of the popular vote (GHWB also fell below 40% in 1992, but it was a three-way race).

Funny how Mondale actually made the popular vote closer than Alton Parker, James Cox, or John Davis--each of whom carried at least 11 states, sweeping or almost sweeping the South.
That's because Parker/Cox/Davis were able to win some states by very large margins, mainly in the South, but failed horribly outside of the South. Mondale's votes were more spread out.
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Computer89
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« Reply #12 on: November 25, 2018, 11:38:55 PM »

It should be noted, though, that unlike Goldwater in 1964 and McGovern in 1972 Mondale did manage to (barely) reach 40% of the popular vote (GHWB also fell below 40% in 1992, but it was a three-way race).

It kinda shows you how much less polarization there was in the 1980s. Reagan won by a margin of 5 less points than Nixon did but he came way closer to a 50 state sweep than Nixon did
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« Reply #13 on: November 26, 2018, 04:46:29 PM »

1.America loves a cult of personality, "star" candidates, and always votes for the more charismatic candidate. There are articles from 1984 where voters said they disagreed with Reagan's policies but were voting for him anyway because they liked him more.

2.The cult of the "rugged individualism" and Randian Social Darwinism exploded in the 80s.

3.The GOP under Reagan used racist attacks (Chicago woman) to scare away the Dem base of blue collar white men. In 1984, people complained that Democrats were looking out for the "poor" (blacks) instead of the "middle class" (whites).
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MR DARK BRANDON
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« Reply #14 on: December 07, 2018, 07:59:01 AM »

- Reagan was popular in 1984(His approval rating was 59% which matches his a popular vote %)

- The Economy was in much better shape in 1984 than in 1980

- Mondale was the VP to an unpopular President

- The 1980s were probably the least polarizing post-war decade other than the 1950s
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KoopaDaQuick 🇵🇸
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« Reply #15 on: December 07, 2018, 03:08:34 PM »

I wasn’t  alive at that time. What happened in that election? How did Reagan win every state except Minnesota?

Yes, Reagan won every state except Minnesota, but Mondale also won the District of Columbia.

But like everybody said, Reagan was just really popular in 1984, and Mondale wasn't a strong competitor. He's mostly why the 1980's was such a patriotic decade.
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Dukakisite1988
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« Reply #16 on: December 07, 2018, 03:56:55 PM »

Reagan's vastly superior campaigning skills turned it from a 54-45 modest landslide into a 58-41 forty-nine state landslide.
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AudmanOut
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« Reply #17 on: December 07, 2018, 03:59:09 PM »

Because he was popular and Mondale said he would raise taxes, Reagan just did it quietly.
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #18 on: December 07, 2018, 11:42:06 PM »

He picked Geraldine Ferraro and her baggage.
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Matty
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« Reply #19 on: December 15, 2018, 06:20:14 PM »

One of the amazing things about the 80s dem party: even though they were a disaster on national level, their support in the coal fields of southern wv and eastern kentucky remained strong. Mondale won these counties by huge margins.
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Intell
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« Reply #20 on: December 15, 2018, 08:10:25 PM »

One of the amazing things about the 80s dem party: even though they were a disaster on national level, their support in the coal fields of southern wv and eastern kentucky remained strong. Mondale won these counties by huge margins.

Not amazing whatsoever.
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I Can Now Die Happy
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« Reply #21 on: December 16, 2018, 12:22:52 PM »

The Democrats back then sucked like the Democrats do now, but the country also wasn't as polarized.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #22 on: December 21, 2018, 03:43:58 PM »

The realignment of 1992-94 hadn't taken place and Reagan was pro-life but appointed moderate SCOTUS nominees until Scalia and Bork.  So, even Massachusetts, which had Irish immigrants, which Reagan and HW Bush and Dubya, took moderate stances on immigration on, even voted for Reagan.
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SingingAnalyst
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« Reply #23 on: January 23, 2019, 12:56:15 PM »

All good answers and explanations. Another is that, as of November 1984, the US had had four Presidents in 10 years and a few months: Nixon, Ford, Carter, Reagan. Two consecutive incumbents had been defeated (Ford, Carter). I think many Americans were ready to re-elect anyone in 1984 who did even a halfway decent job-- and many Americans felt Reagan's performance was much more than halfway decent.

It has been said, with considerable truth, that many of Reagan's votes came from those who liked Reagan personally, but disagreed with many of his policies. However, a small percentage-- about 7%-- disliked Reagan but approved of his policies, and I suspect this small latter group went strongly for Reagan as well.
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mianfei
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« Reply #24 on: September 16, 2020, 08:23:12 AM »

One of the amazing things about the 80s dem party: even though they were a disaster on national level, their support in the coal fields of southern wv and eastern kentucky remained strong. Mondale won these counties by huge margins.

Not amazing whatsoever.
It is amazing compared to elections in the 2010s. However, there were three key issues:

  • greenhouse gas emissions
  • immigration
  • gun control

where coal country simply cannot accept present Democratic positions. These were not important issues in the 1980s, and with one – gun control – taking a stance might have helped the Democrats in suburban areas even if it destroyed them in traditionally Democratic rural counties with small and declining populations. Moreover, to anti-immigration coal counties Reagan was no better on that issue than Mondale, and perhaps worse if they felt he was allowing businesses to encourage immigration.
1.America loves a cult of personality, "star" candidates, and always votes for the more charismatic candidate. There are articles from 1984 where voters said they disagreed with Reagan's policies but were voting for him anyway because they liked him more.

2.The cult of the "rugged individualism" and Randian Social Darwinism exploded in the 80s.

3.The GOP under Reagan used racist attacks (Chicago woman) to scare away the Dem base of blue collar white men. In 1984, people complained that Democrats were looking out for the "poor" (blacks) instead of the "middle class" (whites).
Extremely good points, though I would deviate a little as what data exist suggest Mondale won a substantially larger share of the vote of the poorest whites than Hilary Clinton did in 2016. Hilary won only 31 percent of the poorest quintile of white Americans, or a mere 14 percent if we include non-voters. Mondale likely won around 40 percent if we count only voters, or 23 percent if nonvoters are included.

The key difference was upper-middle-class and some ruling-class white voters, who have become much more Democratic since the 1990s for cultural reasons.
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