Control of Congressional Redistricting as of 2018 elections

[nclib]

So far, I've got this:

Red = full Democratic control
Blue = full Republican control
Green = mixed or non-partisan commission
Gray = at-large seat

Or are there any new states with commissions?

[Zaybay]

-UT has a commission, though its statutory
-IA has a commission, though the legislature can deny it(this hasnt happened before)
-OH has a commission, though its rather weak and can be influenced(they have to accept the map though)
-ME and CT need 2/3 majority for redistricting, so both are basically divided

[Nyvin]

Ohio has the redistricting reform measure, I don't think it's a non-partisan commission though.

The independent commission proposal in Utah is still ahead as of now.

Iowa is also a commission

Kentucky has wording in the state constitution about redistricting that restricts gerrymandering.

Maryland might as well be listed as D control really...

[Skill and Chance]

Ohio has the redistricting reform measure, I don't think it's a non-partisan commission though.

The independent commission proposal in Utah is still ahead as of now.

Iowa is also a commission

Kentucky has wording in the state constitution about redistricting that restricts gerrymandering.

I think they have a minimal county splits?  If so, that would save Yarmuth as his district would have to be drawn entirely within Jefferson County (Louisville).  I don't think it is even possible to draw a Trump district there?

[Oryxslayer]

- IA has a strong commission. As said, by others, it will be respected but like all commissions, still be influenced by the republican majority.
-ME and CT need 2/3s majorities. Practically this means little change, though such change probably benefits the party in power like 2010 where the minuscule changes in ME benefited pubs, and CT dems.
-MD as stated is dem controlled.
-UT has a commission though the legislature may ignore it the statutory law. Considering UT republicans tend to Rule of Law types, the commission probably holds barring Chaffetz becoming Gov.
-CO adopted a new commission this Month that has to be respected.

I suggest you add a "lean" category for those states with weak commissions or laws regarding redistricting.
-KY as said has a law preventing cutting counties over 1 CD, which practically means that the partisan balance of the state cannot change - but KY06 probably becomes more Pub.
-OH as stated has a commission but it is a partisan one. Most people I have talked with agree the commission will give dems a competitive seat or two and reinforce their existing seats in exchange for allowing pubs to gerry the rest of the state.
-NY has a law requiring a independent mapper. But the legislature, if unified, can reject the commissioners maps and draw their own.
-MO similarly now requires a special nonpartisan appointee to draw said maps. probably means the 6-2 divide continues.
-FL similarly has the fair districts amendment, which requires centralized districts with ideally competitive PVIs, and requires more Majority-Minority districts then the VRA necessitates. Though considering what happened in 2011, its questionable if the republicans would respect said guidelines.
 

[Virginiá]

-MO similarly now requires a special nonpartisan appointee to draw said maps. probably means the 6-2 divide continues.

That is only for legislative districts I believe.

Also, regarding New York, I think there is a caveat to add in how they can ignore the commission:

https://ballotpedia.org/New_York_Proposal_1_(2014),_Full_Text_of_Constitutional_Changes

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It seems that if they want to pass a map with a unified Democratic legislative majority, they would need a 2/3 majority. They would have to have an Assembly or Senate leader from a different party to do it by a simple majority. Of course, this can probably be gamed. Maybe the Democrat can temporarily change their party affiliation ahead of time, or something of the sort.

I don't even get why Democrats agreed to this amendment. It's too convoluted, weak and clearly meant to benefit Republicans to a degree.


-

Regarding Florida - I think Democrats really need to prioritize getting a redistricting commission on the ballot for 2020 if they want to have a shot at fair maps. They can't rely on the FLSC anymore.

[Mr.Phips]

- IA has a strong commission. As said, by others, it will be respected but like all commissions, still be influenced by the republican majority.
-ME and CT need 2/3s majorities. Practically this means little change, though such change probably benefits the party in power like 2010 where the minuscule changes in ME benefited pubs, and CT dems.
-MD as stated is dem controlled.
-UT has a commission though the legislature may ignore it the statutory law. Considering UT republicans tend to Rule of Law types, the commission probably holds barring Chaffetz becoming Gov.
-CO adopted a new commission this Month that has to be respected.

I suggest you add a "lean" category for those states with weak commissions or laws regarding redistricting.
-KY as said has a law preventing cutting counties over 1 CD, which practically means that the partisan balance of the state cannot change - but KY06 probably becomes more Pub.
-OH as stated has a commission but it is a partisan one. Most people I have talked with agree the commission will give dems a competitive seat or two and reinforce their existing seats in exchange for allowing pubs to gerry the rest of the state.
-NY has a law requiring a independent mapper. But the legislature, if unified, can reject the commissioners maps and draw their own.
-MO similarly now requires a special nonpartisan appointee to draw said maps. probably means the 6-2 divide continues.
-FL similarly has the fair districts amendment, which requires centralized districts with ideally competitive PVIs, and requires more Majority-Minority districts then the VRA necessitates. Though considering what happened in 2011, its questionable if the republicans would respect said guidelines.
 

Iowa is literally a computer that draws the lines at random.

[Oryxslayer]

- IA has a strong commission. As said, by others, it will be respected but like all commissions, still be influenced by the republican majority.
-ME and CT need 2/3s majorities. Practically this means little change, though such change probably benefits the party in power like 2010 where the minuscule changes in ME benefited pubs, and CT dems.
-MD as stated is dem controlled.
-UT has a commission though the legislature may ignore it the statutory law. Considering UT republicans tend to Rule of Law types, the commission probably holds barring Chaffetz becoming Gov.
-CO adopted a new commission this Month that has to be respected.

I suggest you add a "lean" category for those states with weak commissions or laws regarding redistricting.
-KY as said has a law preventing cutting counties over 1 CD, which practically means that the partisan balance of the state cannot change - but KY06 probably becomes more Pub.
-OH as stated has a commission but it is a partisan one. Most people I have talked with agree the commission will give dems a competitive seat or two and reinforce their existing seats in exchange for allowing pubs to gerry the rest of the state.
-NY has a law requiring a independent mapper. But the legislature, if unified, can reject the commissioners maps and draw their own.
-MO similarly now requires a special nonpartisan appointee to draw said maps. probably means the 6-2 divide continues.
-FL similarly has the fair districts amendment, which requires centralized districts with ideally competitive PVIs, and requires more Majority-Minority districts then the VRA necessitates. Though considering what happened in 2011, its questionable if the republicans would respect said guidelines.
 

Iowa is literally a computer that draws the lines at random.

The computer generates maps that have very low levels of distribution. If I recall from 2010, the legislature then picked certain maps they liked from said generation.

[Mr.Phips]

- IA has a strong commission. As said, by others, it will be respected but like all commissions, still be influenced by the republican majority.
-ME and CT need 2/3s majorities. Practically this means little change, though such change probably benefits the party in power like 2010 where the minuscule changes in ME benefited pubs, and CT dems.
-MD as stated is dem controlled.
-UT has a commission though the legislature may ignore it the statutory law. Considering UT republicans tend to Rule of Law types, the commission probably holds barring Chaffetz becoming Gov.
-CO adopted a new commission this Month that has to be respected.

I suggest you add a "lean" category for those states with weak commissions or laws regarding redistricting.
-KY as said has a law preventing cutting counties over 1 CD, which practically means that the partisan balance of the state cannot change - but KY06 probably becomes more Pub.
-OH as stated has a commission but it is a partisan one. Most people I have talked with agree the commission will give dems a competitive seat or two and reinforce their existing seats in exchange for allowing pubs to gerry the rest of the state.
-NY has a law requiring a independent mapper. But the legislature, if unified, can reject the commissioners maps and draw their own.
-MO similarly now requires a special nonpartisan appointee to draw said maps. probably means the 6-2 divide continues.
-FL similarly has the fair districts amendment, which requires centralized districts with ideally competitive PVIs, and requires more Majority-Minority districts then the VRA necessitates. Though considering what happened in 2011, its questionable if the republicans would respect said guidelines.
 

Iowa is literally a computer that draws the lines at random.

The computer generates maps that have very low levels of distribution. If I recall from 2010, the legislature then picked certain maps they liked from said generation.

I remember reading about the 1981 redistricting when Republicans last had the trifecta in Iowa.  Apparently someone said that the computer must be a Democrat since every map it produced looked like a Dem gerrymander.

[lfromnj]

- IA has a strong commission. As said, by others, it will be respected but like all commissions, still be influenced by the republican majority.
-ME and CT need 2/3s majorities. Practically this means little change, though such change probably benefits the party in power like 2010 where the minuscule changes in ME benefited pubs, and CT dems.
-MD as stated is dem controlled.
-UT has a commission though the legislature may ignore it the statutory law. Considering UT republicans tend to Rule of Law types, the commission probably holds barring Chaffetz becoming Gov.
-CO adopted a new commission this Month that has to be respected.

I suggest you add a "lean" category for those states with weak commissions or laws regarding redistricting.
-KY as said has a law preventing cutting counties over 1 CD, which practically means that the partisan balance of the state cannot change - but KY06 probably becomes more Pub.
-OH as stated has a commission but it is a partisan one. Most people I have talked with agree the commission will give dems a competitive seat or two and reinforce their existing seats in exchange for allowing pubs to gerry the rest of the state.
-NY has a law requiring a independent mapper. But the legislature, if unified, can reject the commissioners maps and draw their own.
-MO similarly now requires a special nonpartisan appointee to draw said maps. probably means the 6-2 divide continues.
-FL similarly has the fair districts amendment, which requires centralized districts with ideally competitive PVIs, and requires more Majority-Minority districts then the VRA necessitates. Though considering what happened in 2011, its questionable if the republicans would respect said guidelines.
 

Iowa is literally a computer that draws the lines at random.

The computer generates maps that have very low levels of distribution. If I recall from 2010, the legislature then picked certain maps they liked from said generation.

I remember reading about the 1981 redistricting when Republicans last had the trifecta in Iowa.  Apparently someone said that the computer must be a Democrat since every map it produced looked like a Dem gerrymander.

I mean the Iowa map is basically a dem gerrymander atm. 3 lean d and titanium r district. Hubbell won 3 districts but lost the state

[Orser67]

- IA has a strong commission. As said, by others, it will be respected but like all commissions, still be influenced by the republican majority.
-ME and CT need 2/3s majorities. Practically this means little change, though such change probably benefits the party in power like 2010 where the minuscule changes in ME benefited pubs, and CT dems.
-MD as stated is dem controlled.
-UT has a commission though the legislature may ignore it the statutory law. Considering UT republicans tend to Rule of Law types, the commission probably holds barring Chaffetz becoming Gov.
-CO adopted a new commission this Month that has to be respected.

Pretty much this, except that I believe KS Republicans can also override the Democratic governor.

[Bidenworth2020]

could bel edwards get two vra districts?

[Mr.Phips]

- IA has a strong commission. As said, by others, it will be respected but like all commissions, still be influenced by the republican majority.
-ME and CT need 2/3s majorities. Practically this means little change, though such change probably benefits the party in power like 2010 where the minuscule changes in ME benefited pubs, and CT dems.
-MD as stated is dem controlled.
-UT has a commission though the legislature may ignore it the statutory law. Considering UT republicans tend to Rule of Law types, the commission probably holds barring Chaffetz becoming Gov.
-CO adopted a new commission this Month that has to be respected.

Pretty much this, except that I believe KS Republicans can also override the Democratic governor.

They can, but Republicans are only like two seats over the two thirds mark in the House and there are some moderate Republicans that would not agree to pass a map that goes too crazy.

[Strudelcutie4427]

could bel edwards get two vra districts?

He could lose next year and not even be a factor

[Oryxslayer]

- IA has a strong commission. As said, by others, it will be respected but like all commissions, still be influenced by the republican majority.
-ME and CT need 2/3s majorities. Practically this means little change, though such change probably benefits the party in power like 2010 where the minuscule changes in ME benefited pubs, and CT dems.
-MD as stated is dem controlled.
-UT has a commission though the legislature may ignore it the statutory law. Considering UT republicans tend to Rule of Law types, the commission probably holds barring Chaffetz becoming Gov.
-CO adopted a new commission this Month that has to be respected.

Pretty much this, except that I believe KS Republicans can also override the Democratic governor.

They can, but Republicans are only like two seats over the two thirds mark in the House and there are some moderate Republicans that would not agree to pass a map that goes too crazy.

It is important to remember that Pubs had a trifecta in 2010, but the map ended up as court drawn because of the moderate/radical and suburban/rural splits.

[lfromnj]

could bel edwards get two vra districts?

No because reps will have a near super majority by 2022 and Cedric Richmond needs to win with 80 percent so he will tell no democrats to vote against 2 60 percent dem districts.

[Mr.Phips]

could bel edwards get two vra districts?

No because reps will have a near super majority by 2022 and Cedric Richmond needs to win with 80 percent so he will tell no democrats to vote against 2 60 percent dem districts.

Richmond would have no problem in a 60% Dem district.

[lfromnj]

could bel edwards get two vra districts?

No because reps will have a near super majority by 2022 and Cedric Richmond needs to win with 80 percent so he will tell no democrats to vote against 2 60 percent dem districts.

Richmond would have no problem in a 60% Dem district.

Black dems want 80 percent districts. They will backstab fellow democrats like Russ carnahan

[Mr.Phips]

could bel edwards get two vra districts?

No because reps will have a near super majority by 2022 and Cedric Richmond needs to win with 80 percent so he will tell no democrats to vote against 2 60 percent dem districts.

Richmond would have no problem in a 60% Dem district.

Black dems want 80 percent districts. They will backstab fellow democrats like Russ carnahan

The Dem leadership needs to get tougher with them.  What use is being elected if your party has no power because they are packed into as few districts as possible?

[Oryxslayer]

could bel edwards get two vra districts?

No because reps will have a near super majority by 2022 and Cedric Richmond needs to win with 80 percent so he will tell no democrats to vote against 2 60 percent dem districts.

Richmond would have no problem in a 60% Dem district.

Black dems want 80 percent districts. They will backstab fellow democrats like Russ carnahan

He can frankly have a 75% district in only New Orleans and the region south of Baton, the other seat can be something like D+7 and go diagonal from Shreveport to Baton. Mind you this is with 2010 numbers, which is the big question regarding LA redistricting. In 2010, the was still Katrina fallout, but by 2012 people had moved back fully into New Orleans. With AAs moving south, it might be possible to see LA crack 33% AA. If so, then it becomes a case of "can we draw to BVAP" seats rather than "will we draw two BVAP seats."

[jimrtex]

So far, I've got this:

Red = full Democratic control
Blue = full Republican control
Green = mixed or non-partisan commission
Gray = at-large seat

Or are there any new states with commissions?

Maryland is under court order to redraw its congressional districts by 2020.

[jimrtex]

- IA has a strong commission. As said, by others, it will be respected but like all commissions, still be influenced by the republican majority.

Iowa is literally a computer that draws the lines at random.

False and false.

Maps are drawn by the legislative staff. The legislature may reject a map, but they have to give a reason. In the past, they voted down a map because it had too much deviation. It may be that they didn't like the first map for other reasons, but it was true that the second map had less deviation.

[Nyvin]

- IA has a strong commission. As said, by others, it will be respected but like all commissions, still be influenced by the republican majority.

Iowa is literally a computer that draws the lines at random.

False and false.

Maps are drawn by the legislative staff. The legislature may reject a map, but they have to give a reason. In the past, they voted down a map because it had too much deviation. It may be that they didn't like the first map for other reasons, but it was true that the second map had less deviation.

This is the commission and how it's chosen:

one member selected by the majority leader of the Iowa State Senate
one member selected by the majority leader of the Iowa House of Representatives
one member selected by the minority leader of the Iowa State Senate
one member selected by the minority leader of the Iowa House of Representatives
one member selected by the first four members

Members of the commission cannot hold partisan public office or an office in a political party, and none may be a relative or employee of a federal or state legislator (or the legislature as a whole).

I don't believe calling them "legislative staff" is accurate.   The Iowa legislature can reject the commisssion's maps,  but they can't put in changes to it,  they just have the commission draw a new map.

[jimrtex]

- IA has a strong commission. As said, by others, it will be respected but like all commissions, still be influenced by the republican majority.

Iowa is literally a computer that draws the lines at random.

False and false.

Maps are drawn by the legislative staff. The legislature may reject a map, but they have to give a reason. In the past, they voted down a map because it had too much deviation. It may be that they didn't like the first map for other reasons, but it was true that the second map had less deviation.

This is the commission and how it's chosen:

one member selected by the majority leader of the Iowa State Senate
one member selected by the majority leader of the Iowa House of Representatives
one member selected by the minority leader of the Iowa State Senate
one member selected by the minority leader of the Iowa House of Representatives
one member selected by the first four members

Members of the commission cannot hold partisan public office or an office in a political party, and none may be a relative or employee of a federal or state legislator (or the legislature as a whole).

I don't believe calling them "legislative staff" is accurate.   The Iowa legislature can reject the commisssion's maps,  but they can't put in changes to it,  they just have the commission draw a new map.

See Chapter 42 of the Iowa Code.

Maps are drawn by the Legislative Services Agency (LSA), which is the nonpartisan staff for the legislature. Some readers may project "legislative staff" to mean partisan hacks based on the experience in their own state.

The role of the temporary redistricting advisory commission is quite limited.

(1) Provide direction to the LSA when there is a question about an interpretation of the redistricting standards in Section 42.4.

(2) Determine policies regarding information that the LSA may release outside the LSA prior to delivery of the plan to the legislature (this would include the legislative members, the press and the general public). A specific exception is the census data itself which may be released.

(3) Schedule and conduct at least three public hearings on the plan that the LSA has drawn, and prepare a report on the hearings for the legislature.

[Skill and Chance]

So far, I've got this:

Red = full Democratic control
Blue = full Republican control
Green = mixed or non-partisan commission
Gray = at-large seat

Or are there any new states with commissions?

Maryland is under court order to redraw its congressional districts by 2020.

That will get appealed to SCOTUS.  It's a partisan gerrymandering case, so if they rule against Maryland, congressional maps would need to be redrawn for 2020 in upwards of half the states.