Is Iowa now a red state?

[Scottholes 2.0]

Because Democrats now control 3/4 of the house delegation in Iowa, I am calling Iowa a tossup until 2020 if their Republican U.S. Senator Joni Ernst keeps her seat and Trump wins the state again by at least more than 5 points.

[Xing]

I'd say it's a light red/Lean R state. It's not (yet) unwinnable for Democrats, but Trump/Ernst will probably win if it's a neutral year.

[Storr]

I'm pretty sure most Iowans would take offense to being called the new Nebraska.

[IceSpear]

Yes. But it's not crimson red.

[lfromnj]

Yes. But it's not crimson red.

Yeah it's a light red state. Basically the reverse of Iowa from 88 to 2012.

[DC Al Fine]

The House in Iowa went 50.5-46.5 in a good year for the Democrats. That's a much smaller margin than the country as a whole. Let's not get ahead of ourselves guys.

[ElectionsGuy]

Yes

[Virginiá]

The House in Iowa went 50.5-46.5 in a good year for the Democrats. That's a much smaller margin than the country as a whole. Let's not get ahead of ourselves guys.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Iowa,_2006
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Iowa,_2008

I was expecting higher margins for Democrats but surprisingly, this cycle was on par with 2008 and better than 2006.

It has a Republican lean to it, but I'm not sure that much has changed.

[lfromnj]

Why do people forget about the house that Steve King was there. Maybe something like Cali or NY you can count due to large amount of districts but Iowa had a literal neo nazi as one of their congressman.

[Virginiá]

Why do people forget about the house that Steve King was there. Maybe something like Cali or NY you can count due to large amount of districts but Iowa had a literal neo nazi as one of their congressman.

Even if you give him a bigger win, it doesn't really change the fact that Democrats did fairly well compared to past elections. Well enough that it's hard to make the case that the House results indicate a notably redder state. Although there are other factors to consider, sure.

[MT Treasurer]

It’s not the next Nebraska (yet), and there’s no doubt that Clinton was the worst possible Democrat for the state, but I don’t buy that it’s far more likely to vote Democratic for president than Ohio or that it’s a "Toss-up" in a close election.

[MT Treasurer]

The House in Iowa went 50.5-46.5 in a good year for the Democrats. That's a much smaller margin than the country as a whole. Let's not get ahead of ourselves guys.

The House in Virginia went 54-40 in a good year for the Republicans (2014). Didn’t prevent the GOP from getting wiped out there in 2016/2017/2018.

[Politician]

The House in Iowa went 50.5-46.5 in a good year for the Democrats. That's a much smaller margin than the country as a whole. Let's not get ahead of ourselves guys.

The House in Virginia went 54-40 in a good year for the Republicans (2014). Didn’t prevent the GOP from getting wiped out there in 2016/2017/2018.

You can't compare an incredibly low-turnout midterm with only 1 competitive seat to a high-turnout midterm with 3 competitive seats.

[Skill and Chance]

It’s not the next Nebraska (yet), and there’s no doubt that Clinton was the worst possible Democrat for the state, but I don’t buy that it’s far more likely to vote Democratic for president than Ohio or that it’s a "Toss-up" in a close election.

It's not a toss up, but it can swing for idiosyncratic reasons that have little impact on the rest of the country, so it's worth watching going forward, and is more interesting for 2020 than Ohio (which IMO is all but gone for Democrats now).  Trump really is antagonizing the farm belt with his trade policies.  So far, this is being cancelled out by cultural issues, but the economy as a whole is incredibly good right now.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's in Play in 2020 and in 2022, should Grassley retire. Dems had IA secure with Tom Harkin. In 2014, not too long ago

[completely dead account]

Still a battleground state, but it leans R as of right now. That may change in the future.