If Manchin Ran For Governor In 2020 Against Justice, Would He Win?

[Tekken_Guy]

If Manchin wins, will he or Justice have the power to pick his Senate successor?

[SnowLabrador]

Others have noted that the GOP might let Manchin win, since it's a good trade for the GOP.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Hearing from a friend that Manchin is in and going to announce sometime around fourth of july.

[MT Treasurer]

Not buying that he will jump into the governor's race, but if he does in fact run and beats Justice, the most likely outcome is Manchin appointing his successor and a special election held in 2022, right? Not really familiar with WV law.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Not buying that he will jump into the governor's race, but if he does in fact run and beats Justice, the most likely outcome is Manchin appointing his successor and a special election held in 2022, right? Not really familiar with WV law.

Most likely yes, but it is dicey. And whoever is appointed would lose the seat two years early, so that sucks hard.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Not buying that he will jump into the governor's race, but if he does in fact run and beats Justice, the most likely outcome is Manchin appointing his successor and a special election held in 2022, right? Not really familiar with WV law.

Under current WV law, that is what would happen.  However, the WV legislature will almost surely pass a no gubernatorial appointee, special election in 90 days law for US Senate vacancies if Manchin runs for governor.

Which is why it gets dicey. I would have to vote for Justice just to keep Manchin in the senate.

[ElectionsGuy]

If he runs for governor and loses, would he still resign the Senate out of sheer frustration/fatigue?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

If he runs for governor and loses, would he still resign the Senate out of sheer frustration/fatigue?

Idk but if I had to guess, yes.

[DaWN]

If he hates being in the Senate that much, why didn't he just stick two fingers up at Schumer and retire in 2018 anyway? Seems like a lot of trouble to go to being reelected in such a hostile state and then resigning out of annoyance two years later.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

If he hates being in the Senate that much, why didn't he just stick two fingers up at Schumer and retire in 2018 anyway? Seems like a lot of trouble to go to being reelected in such a hostile state and then resigning out of annoyance two years later.

I have heard he can be a very impulsive person and switches his mind about running like every few days or even hours

http://wvmetronews.com/2019/01/11/manchin-considering-running-for-governor-again/

[MT Treasurer]

If he runs for governor and loses, would he still resign the Senate out of sheer frustration/fatigue?

No way as that would result in Justice (R) appointing his successor (a Republican). The 2022 map is definitely good for Democrats, but even in a Trump midterm they need every seat to get to 51.

[UnselfconsciousTeff]

Here's another reason I think the GOP would pretty much just let him take it, they would easily pickup another senate seat.

Your signature is the most blue dog image ive ever seen

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The R's arent keeping Senate in 2022, Toomey and Portman have 22% approvals

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Not buying that he will jump into the governor's race, but if he does in fact run and beats Justice, the most likely outcome is Manchin appointing his successor and a special election held in 2022, right? Not really familiar with WV law.

Under current WV law, that is what would happen.  However, the WV legislature will almost surely pass a no gubernatorial appointee, special election in 90 days law for US Senate vacancies if Manchin runs for governor.

Which is why it gets dicey. I would have to vote for Justice just to keep Manchin in the senate.

On the other hand, if Manchin does still get to make the senate appointment, it's arguably a better scenario for Dems in a situation where the WH and Senate flipped in 2020, because a random Dem knowing they have no chance in 2022 would likely vote the party line on all major legislation in exchange for a future position e.g. in the Dem president's cabinet.  Whereas Manchin has carefully built a quasi-Independent brand and his vote would be far from assured on anything controversial.  Given it's basically impossible for Dems to finish with more than 52 seats after 2020 and a 50/50 VP tiebreaker being by far the most likely scenario for Dem control, this is very relevant. 

If Republicans picked up the Senate in 2022, this Dem could be still be confirmed to their position the last week of December in the lame duck with minimal impact on Senate proceedings even if control technically flips.

Good point, but the thing is if Manchin got to pick his replacement it would not be Ojeda or some liberal, he’d pick Tomblin or someone like him, and they would vote the same as Manchin, just two fewer years.

[SnowLabrador]

If he runs for governor and loses, would he still resign the Senate out of sheer frustration/fatigue?

Probably. By all accounts, he hates it there. He deserves to be remembered as a traitor.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Manchin might well win.  He's WV's most substantitive elected official, so why not? 

[Progressive Pessimist]

The R's arent keeping Senate in 2022, Toomey and Portman have 22% approvals

They'll be fine if there is a Democratic President. Portman especially, he probably won't be going anywhere even if Trump gets re-elected then. But yes, the Democrats might finally be able to retake the Senate in 2022 to try and salvage whatever is left of this country.

[Indy Texas]

The national Dems should make it clear that if he runs, he will get zero money or support from them.

The GOP-controlled legislature can override any of his vetos with a simple majority and will not pass any Democratic initiatives. Without legislative control, there is zero point in having the West Virginia governorship at all.

[SnowLabrador]

The national Dems should make it clear that if he runs, he will get zero money or support from them.

The GOP-controlled legislature can override any of his vetos with a simple majority and will not pass any Democratic initiatives. Without legislative control, there is zero point in having the West Virginia governorship at all.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Manchin could win, but GOP has legislative dominance and Dems dont have a deep Senate bench aside from AL, AZ, CO and TX. One seat margin of error in Senate races could spell defeat in the Senate, due to candidates running for Prez. Ojeda can win a special, but should do it in 2024, after 2022, Senate class than 2020. Where Dems are assured a majority in 2022

This was barely English.

[Sir Mohamed]

I think Manchin would lose. He barely made it last year, what surprised me. He will probably sit this one out and retire from the senate in 2024, giving the GOP an easy pickup.

[Pandaguineapig]

He would, he just won a legislative race last year so a jump to the governorship would be an easier climb. Besides, Justice is unpopular and Republicans are less inclined to help him out if they're getting a free Senate seat

[UnselfconsciousTeff]

No, WVA is a R state, now.

WVDP is basicaly the blue version of the republicans (with the execption of Ojeda)

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Yeah, the trade off here is great for the GOP.  Why would Dems rather have a dinky state governorship rather than 1% of the U.S. Senate? 

Nice username haha!

[CookieDamage]

He'd lose. He barely won his senate seat in 2018.