2012 if Benghazi had the same impact as Watergate

[UnselfconsciousTeff]

DISCUSS WITH MAPS

[bagelman]

Here's how I think it would go:

360-178 GOP (like IN)

Here's how it could go if the nation voted near an inverted margin relative to the 1974 midterm generic ballot:

418-120 GOP (like TX)

Obama may be forced to resign in November, as little as a week after his landslide defeat. President Biden serves as the 45th president for at least a month, probably two, and pardons both President Obama and SoS Hillary Clinton (who also resigned, possibly before the election). Mitt Romney is inaugurated as the 46th president in January 2013.

Romney is beatable if the Democrats harness outsider energy (Sanders=Reagan analogue) but it's not impossible for them to nominate Clinton somehow or some other DLCesque hack and give Romney another four years.

Looking forward, 2020 is Lean D either with the reelection of a popular Democratic outsider president or with the 8 year itch needing scratched.

[NewYorkExpress]

Obama still gets reelected by the slimmest of margins (the Kerry 2004 map+ Florida/Ohio), but what this would really do is put an end to Hillary Clinton's career and probably would lead to her indictment. There is no way Obama can pardon her without automatically costing Democrats any shot at the House and Senate in 2014 and the White House in 2016 (I presume Republicans at least force a 50-50 tie in the Senate in 2012 if not take it outright in this scenario), so he lets her hang out to dry.

He also probably is unable to fill the vacancy at Secretary of State, because Republicans refuse to back any nominee, and despite hard-liners calling for impeachment of Obama and Biden (and Boehner agreeing to it), Mitch McConnell's refusal to play ball, saves both of them for the next four years.

Finally, in 2016, Biden is dead in the water if he runs, both in the primaries and in the General, as is anyone else in the Obama Cabinet, and with Hillary's career ruined, Democrats will likely turn to Bernie Sanders or Andrew Cuomo.

Republicans will be favored, no matter who they nominate, but they have a crowded primary. Trump runs, but is unable to gain traction, as Benghazi means competency is demanded from the nominee. Ultimately, Jeb Bush secures the nomination, and defeats whoever the Democrats put up comfortably, largely because the Obama brand is now quite toxic.

[bagelman]

Republicans will be favored, no matter who they nominate, but they have a crowded primary. Trump runs, but is unable to gain traction, as Benghazi means competency is demanded from the nominee. Ultimately, Jeb Bush secures the nomination, and defeats...

You had me up until here. Yeb!! is not going to win if nominated and is not going to be nominated even if Trump runs as an arch-liberal in the Democratic primaries or moves to the other side of the world. Yeb did not need Trump to ruin his campaign, he will be rejected regardless.

Christie could be nominated, as the butterfly effect could eliminate bridgegate.

[NewYorkExpress]

Republicans will be favored, no matter who they nominate, but they have a crowded primary. Trump runs, but is unable to gain traction, as Benghazi means competency is demanded from the nominee. Ultimately, Jeb Bush secures the nomination, and defeats...

You had me up until here. Yeb!! is not going to win if nominated and is not going to be nominated even if Trump runs as an arch-liberal in the Democratic primaries or moves to the other side of the world. Yeb did not need Trump to ruin his campaign, he will be rejected regardless.

Christie could be nominated, as the butterfly effect could eliminate bridgegate.

Bridgegate had everything to do with Chris Christie's personality and nothing to do with National Politics. The only way it doesn't happen is if Christie doesn't run for a second term in 2013.

[morgankingsley]

Obama still gets reelected by the slimmest of margins (the Kerry 2004 map+ Florida/Ohio), but what this would really do is put an end to Hillary Clinton's career and probably would lead to her indictment. There is no way Obama can pardon her without automatically costing Democrats any shot at the House and Senate in 2014 and the White House in 2016 (I presume Republicans at least force a 50-50 tie in the Senate in 2012 if not take it outright in this scenario), so he lets her hang out to dry.

He also probably is unable to fill the vacancy at Secretary of State, because Republicans refuse to back any nominee, and despite hard-liners calling for impeachment of Obama and Biden (and Boehner agreeing to it), Mitch McConnell's refusal to play ball, saves both of them for the next four years.

Finally, in 2016, Biden is dead in the water if he runs, both in the primaries and in the General, as is anyone else in the Obama Cabinet, and with Hillary's career ruined, Democrats will likely turn to Bernie Sanders or Andrew Cuomo.

Republicans will be favored, no matter who they nominate, but they have a crowded primary. Trump runs, but is unable to gain traction, as Benghazi means competency is demanded from the nominee. Ultimately, Jeb Bush secures the nomination, and defeats whoever the Democrats put up comfortably, largely because the Obama brand is now quite toxic.

I doubt Obama gets reelected. But if he did, we could for the first time ever (arguably second depending on 1960) see the democrat win the election despite losing the popular vote

[Agonized-Statism]

2012

President Barack Obama (D-IL) / Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE)
Fmr. Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA) / Senator Paul Ryan (R-WI) ✓

2016

President Mitt Romney (R-MA) / Vice President Paul Ryan (R-WI)
Senator Bernie Sanders (D-VT) / Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI) ✓

We get a lot more populist sentiment earlier in its Occupy and Tea Party incarnations. A lot of establishment Democrats are wiped out in Congress, Senate, and governorships in 2012 and 2014 by Republican Benghazi Babies. President Romney proves to be more of the same and we get Sanders positioned as a great savior, who loses 2020 to someone like Tom Cotton or David Petraeus.

[BigVic]

Fmr. Gov W. Mitt Romney (R-MA)/Rep. Paul D. Ryan (R-WI) 353 51.8%
*President Barack H. Obama (D-IL)/VP Joe Biden (D-DE) 185 47.25%

*incumbent

[Chips]