TX-SEN 2020 Megathread: Early Voting (user search)
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  TX-SEN 2020 Megathread: Early Voting (search mode)
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Author Topic: TX-SEN 2020 Megathread: Early Voting  (Read 53308 times)
ProgressiveModerate
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« on: July 17, 2020, 09:08:39 PM »


Tarrant is more establishment, whereas Austin and Houston tend to be more "hip". Cornyn is prolly a better fit for Dallas and the surrounding suburban areas than Houston and Austin, where the culture of the electorate would be far more willing to elect Hegar.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #1 on: October 07, 2020, 03:58:55 PM »
« Edited: October 07, 2020, 04:05:38 PM by ProgressiveModerate »

This can only help her tbh



Yuck. Why does the Democratic Party keep nominating Republicans in red states? If you want a Republican, you aren't going to vote for Republican-lite, you'll vote for the actual Republican on the ballot.

MJ Loser is just as pathetic as Amy McGrift. Hope both of their careers are over after this election and we start nominating people who can actually win.

How do you explain Joe Manchin?

West Virginia is weird. But being a moderate in a red state has failed to save, in the last election alone, McCaskill, Donnelly, Heitkamp, and Nelson.


Sinema? Tester?

Even though all 4 of the senators listed above lost, they significantly outperformed the House PV in their state, with the exception of Nelson, who faced a strong challenger and wasn't a very good campaigner himself.

Also yeah; if a large portion of progressives abstain or vote 3rd party, the moderate D isn't going to win, and it works the other way around too.

I understand you may not agree with Joe and other more mainstream Ds on everything, but you can't just vote 3rd party and say "welp we lost this isn't working" when you were literally contributing to his loss. If you want to go ahead and vote Green, that's your right, you do you, but you get what you get nd you don't get upset at the end of the day
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #2 on: October 07, 2020, 05:03:19 PM »

This can only help her tbh



Yuck. Why does the Democratic Party keep nominating Republicans in red states? If you want a Republican, you aren't going to vote for Republican-lite, you'll vote for the actual Republican on the ballot.

MJ Loser is just as pathetic as Amy McGrift. Hope both of their careers are over after this election and we start nominating people who can actually win.

How do you explain Joe Manchin?

West Virginia is weird. But being a moderate in a red state has failed to save, in the last election alone, McCaskill, Donnelly, Heitkamp, and Nelson.


Sinema? Tester?

Even though all 4 of the senators listed above lost, they significantly outperformed the House PV in their state, with the exception of Nelson, who faced a strong challenger and wasn't a very good campaigner himself.

Also yeah; if a large portion of progressives abstain or vote 3rd party, the moderate D isn't going to win, and it works the other way around too.

I understand you may not agree with Joe and other more mainstream Ds on everything, but you can't just vote 3rd party and say "welp we lost this isn't working" when you were literally contributing to his loss. If you want to go ahead and vote Green, that's your right, you do you, but you get what you get nd you don't get upset at the end of the day

I'm not advocating people vote Green. I'm advocating the Democrats get better candidates than this.

You need to stop thinking of voters as being on a spectrum. Having a moderate hero candidate doesn't just depress progressive turnout. It also discourages the average voter; why would you vote for somebody who offers nothing against your opponent?

Independent voters aren't just centrists. They're also people who are open to single-payer healthcare and a ton of other so-called "radical" ideas.

Fair enough.

The Democrats have a more difficult job because they're tent is bigger and more diverse than the Republican's tent. I don't really know if this idea that moderates decrease turnout and give voters nothing to look forwards too is necessarily true.

I agree with you about Independents, but many "Independents" are just closet partisans with an I next to their name.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #3 on: October 08, 2020, 08:13:31 AM »

It's pretty clear that the big Cornyn leads were always a mirage and if you looked at his vote share in polls, there was never any evidence that he was going to overperform Trump.

I bet that in the last round of Texas polls before election day, Hegar will have higher net favorability than either Cornyn or Biden in Texas.



Really hoping this ends up becoming tossup. Even though Cornyn had a solid leads in polls, it seemed most TX polling had and still has many undecides. Lean R for the time being, but I would be pleasantly surprised if Hegar ends up running away with this one. At the very least, this is one more insurance seat
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #4 on: October 09, 2020, 07:54:52 PM »
« Edited: October 09, 2020, 08:05:42 PM by ProgressiveModerate »

Damn! She is very good.

Yeah, definately moving this from Likely R to Lean R in my mental model. I'm curious to see how my actual model will react in the coming weeks.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #5 on: October 16, 2020, 09:54:57 AM »

I think the more seats Ds can bring into play the better; more backups incase one of the core 4 fails, and a larger buffer for legislation in the case of a landslide, so you don't risk Manchin switching parties.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #6 on: October 16, 2020, 10:07:42 AM »

I think the more seats Ds can bring into play the better; more backups incase one of the core 4 fails, and a larger buffer for legislation in the case of a landslide, so you don't risk Manchin switching parties.
With Manchin having voted to remove Trump from office and him having voiced opposition to a party switch several times, it really does not seem likely that he'll switch parties. He is probably just gonna retire in 2024.

Yeah, I really think it depends upon if he wants to have a political future in WV or not. I think in reality he's a bit more liberal than he makes himself to be, but WV constrains him. Post WV-2018 senate election, he seems to have had less votes against the Democrats. I feel like if anything, Sinema might be a bigger bottleneck as she seems more willing to stand for her values, even when there's not much political gain, as by the time AZ-Sen will be up  again, AZ will prolly be a bluer state; if anything, she needs to worry about a primary challenger.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #7 on: October 22, 2020, 02:23:45 PM »


I would rather has a senator who curses a little than one who wants to take away my healthcare and ruin the environment. Also; Cornyn, don't act all innocent; you've definately cursed many many time sin your life.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #8 on: October 22, 2020, 02:37:22 PM »


However, you have to consider the only voting group in TX that matters are Moderate Suburban Republicans™, and they love this kind of stuff.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #9 on: October 22, 2020, 02:46:20 PM »


However, you have to consider the only voting group in TX that matters are Moderate Suburban Republicans™, and they love this kind of stuff.

He is sprinting from The Donald. I really wonder if Biden ekes out Texas. Cornyn would not be doing this otherwise.

Biden is definately highly competative in TX and the state really could go either way. Cornyn doesn't need to outperform Trump by much, but he will need to outperform by at least a few points to be relatively safe, which is hard in a state as big as TX where it's harder to be a local politician. Only way he can get good crossover in a state like TX is sticking to a vague ideology that just paints him as a nice guy without specifying his party.
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