TX-SEN 2020 Megathread: Early Voting

[wbrocks67]

I think once Hegar wins the primary, she'll probably see an influx of cash. I think her story is interesting, and she could give Cornyn a real run for his money, considering Biden is basically tied up in TX right now.

[wbrocks67]

So neither Cornyn nor Hegar are raising huge amounts of money especially for a race and state like this.

Maybe she'll start raising some serious dough after she wins the primary, like Eastman and Finello.

Yeah, I think if Hegar was able to raise $1.7M pre-primary, she could probably start rolling a bit after the primary.

[wbrocks67]

I feel like once Hegar is more known (esp with her bio), she'll be more of a threat, since Cornyn doesn't seem to be particularly liked.

Also interested to see how much Hegar raises now that she's the nominee

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/mjhegar/status/1283510218748551168

[wbrocks67]

I wonder if that story will break through past the Free Beacon sphere. Perhaps the Drudge Report? Maybe even the Washington Times?

right, why are we even posting free beacon sh**t here

[wbrocks67]

Glad to see the wheels are turning now

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1285601610614349825?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw...

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1290645098527633414?s=20

It really appears that Hegar can do this. She just needs a lot of help.

[wbrocks67]

This can only help her tbh

https://twitter.com/BenjaminEW/status/1313571181321236480

[wbrocks67]

I'm not sure it will, although I don't think it has a huge amount of downside all by itself. There are ways in which certain kinds of political "moderation" can and do help, especially when one's own party doesn't have an occupant in the White House, but saying, "Take my word for it - I voted for a guy some of you used to like in a secret ballot years ago," doesn't seem guaranteed to be especially helpful. It's fundamentally different from Jim Justice endorsing Trump in 2016. Even in TX, "Romney Republicans" weren't really a thing; although there are people who voted for Romney, the GOP nominees for whom there are lingering affection (in certain constituencies) are HW, W and Reagan.

It'd be one thing if this was a response to oppo research; she could burnish her credentials by being proud of what they were attacking her for, but that's not it. It just seems like (probably) wasted airtime to me.

This is TX... it will certainly help her.

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, it appears Hegar was objectively really great during the debate last night. Good for her.

[wbrocks67]

Wait, Royce really said he wouldn't even *vote* for Hegar? WTF?

[wbrocks67]

Hegar seems to be peaking at the absolute best time. "Cornyn will easily outperform Trump & Cruz" is quickly proving to be one of the worst, if not the worst, Senate take of the year.

The more effort I see by Beto, TX Dems & the Senate Majority PAC, the less worried I am of Biden's lack of resources here (Compared to other non-tipping point red states). TX feels like the perfect state for Biden to get reverse coattails in, based on the huge momentum surrounding Dems flipping the State House.

Hell, I'm more interested in the Senate, Congressional & State House races rather than Biden winning TX. If high early turnout with high registration rates are any indication of enthusiasm, we may be in for a TX-sized surprise that I couldn't have predicted just a week ago (Even if Biden comes close but doesn't win here)

EDIT: I wonder if the Texas GOP shot themselves in the foot at the finish line with their week-long war on dropboxes & Harris County, in my mind, signaling to Texas & the nation that it's officially a purple state.

The one "bright spot" if you can say from all of the GOP hackery, is that it signals to the Dem base that they've got to go out and vote. It turbocharges turnout for the opposition when they think the other side is trying to take their vote away.

[wbrocks67]

It should also be noted that Dems only came in with something like $2.8M for Beto in the closing days of 2018. So the fact that they are dumping nearly *$9 million* for Hegar shows they really think they can win. And judging from these early voting #s, I think there is definitely a high chance.

[wbrocks67]

This all leads me to believe, along with the EV #s, that polling is going to be quite a bit off in TX this year.

[wbrocks67]

Cornyn is lying about opposing Trump taking money from the border wall from what the military was supposed to get. He voted against blocking the emergency declaration, and said in February 2019 “I believe border security is part of national security. So I support the efforts to accomplish that secure border, .. The president’s left with a bad hand and has to play the best hand he can.”

What's the point of lying about it and possibly depressing deplorable base turnout, when it's so easily verifiable that he's lying? He's still going to win, but this can't exactly help him.

Not sure why people are still so sure of this.

[wbrocks67]

Between that ^^^ and Cornyn's recent comments, both sides must see it's close

[wbrocks67]

I don't trust the suburbanites , this kind of stuff can work atleast for down ballot races

Eh, college educated suburbanites are okay with cursing. I think they care about you ripping away their health care a little more.

[wbrocks67]

Hegar raised $3.7M the first 2 weeks of October. Cornyn only $1.3M.

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/10/22/Cornyn-hegar-fundraising/

[wbrocks67]

The late Bloomberg $$ could do all the difference here.

[wbrocks67]

I think Hegar is finally consolidating a lot of those potential "Biden/Cornyn" voters this week.

Shifting this one from Likely R to Lean R

Well over half of the texas electorate has already voted.

So? Given TX's massive amount of registered voters who usually never vote, there's clearly still a lot of untapped potential, esp for Dems

[wbrocks67]

Chuck Schumer's PAC just dumped another $4M into this race for Hegar and Future Forward is spending more $$$ too. That + Bloomberg money could bring this together for Hegar.
https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1321292016337244168

[wbrocks67]

Royce West's career should be over.