TX-SEN 2020 Megathread: Early Voting

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I'd love to know what he thinks of the early spread of HIV/AIDS

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I think there's an equal chance of Cornyn winning by 5% than there is of him sleepwalking into a loss.

Texas is gonna be so fun to watch in November. This is where the real election is taking place, to me

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

What's a good site to follow Texas primary results?

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Thanks for both of the sites!

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

So about on par with Beto in 2018 and a 180 from Hillary in 2016.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I wonder if that story will break through past the Free Beacon sphere. Perhaps the Drudge Report? Maybe even the Washington Times?

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

My gut tells me we're going to have months of everyone slamming Hegar as an awful candidate and then her margin will be nearly identical to Biden's in November. Hegar is far from an A-tier recruit, but Cornyn is hardly an abnormally strong incumbent.

I very much agree with you. But unless she pulls out a win, I think she's damned if she does & damned if she don't.

If she loses by like 10% and underperforms Biden, she'll be considered a horrible candidate for blowing a potentially competitive race and we'll be left wondering how the race would've looked if Beto ran.

If she loses but beats expectations, performing similarly to Beto '18 and/or matches Bidens numbers, she'll be considered a horrible candidate for not getting the job done and we'll be left wondering how the race would've looked if Beto ran.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Glad to see the wheels are turning now

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1285601610614349825?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw...

Glad to see the swift fundraising. Better late than never. I hope shes able to close the funding gap by Labor Day. She certainly needs it more than Any McGrath or Jaime Harrison

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

The Texas Supreme Court has ruled 3 Green candidates shall be restored to the ballot:  their Senate nominee David B. Collins, their TX-21 nominee and their Railroad Commissioner nominee.

Corrected versions of mail-in ballots will now need to be re-sent to voters who've already been sent ballots which are now incorrect.

Tom Wakely for the 21st Congressional District

Tom Wakely lost the 2018 Democratic primary for governor, where he ran an unhinged one note anti-Trump campaign; he was the Democratic nominee for TX-21 in 2016.

Like most Greens, he's a leftist grifter who's serving as a useful idiot for Republicans.

How is it the DSA are so much better at fielding leftist candidates than the Greens? And in a shorter period of time too

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

"Flawless Cornyn will outperform Trump by 10%"

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Why do people think he's going to oust run Trump by 5 points

This forum always overstates the importance/impact of "candidate quality" (while failing to comprehend how subjective the assessment of a candidate's "quality" is) while ignoring or downplaying the importance of fundamentals (trends, national environment, partisanship, partisan lean of a state/district, base enthusiasm, etc.). It’ll happen again in 2022 when Republicans nominate supposedly "weak" or "overrated" candidates in IA, MO, WI, PA, etc.

It's weird though when it comes to TX. Cornyns only quality is literally "Unknown Republican".

For TX, it's like 5% candidate quality & 95% "Texas will never ever ever be favorable to Democrats this year but maybe in another 4-8 years" level of anti-fundamentals

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Hegar seems to be peaking at the absolute best time. "Cornyn will easily outperform Trump & Cruz" is quickly proving to be one of the worst, if not the worst, Senate take of the year.

The more effort I see by Beto, TX Dems & the Senate Majority PAC, the less worried I am of Biden's lack of resources here (Compared to other non-tipping point red states). TX feels like the perfect state for Biden to get reverse coattails in, based on the huge momentum surrounding Dems flipping the State House.

Hell, I'm more interested in the Senate, Congressional & State House races rather than Biden winning TX. If high early turnout with high registration rates are any indication of enthusiasm, we may be in for a TX-sized surprise that I couldn't have predicted just a week ago (Even if Biden comes close but doesn't win here)

EDIT: I wonder if the Texas GOP shot themselves in the foot at the finish line with their week-long war on dropboxes & Harris County, in my mind, signaling to Texas & the nation that it's officially a purple state.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Hegar seems to be peaking at the absolute best time. "Cornyn will easily outperform Trump & Cruz" is quickly proving to be one of the worst, if not the worst, Senate take of the year.

The more effort I see by Beto, TX Dems & the Senate Majority PAC, the less worried I am of Biden's lack of resources here (Compared to other non-tipping point red states). TX feels like the perfect state for Biden to get reverse coattails in, based on the huge momentum surrounding Dems flipping the State House.

Hell, I'm more interested in the Senate, Congressional & State House races rather than Biden winning TX. If high early turnout with high registration rates are any indication of enthusiasm, we may be in for a TX-sized surprise that I couldn't have predicted just a week ago (Even if Biden comes close but doesn't win here)

EDIT: I wonder if the Texas GOP shot themselves in the foot at the finish line with their week-long war on dropboxes & Harris County, in my mind, signaling to Texas & the nation that it's officially a purple state.

The one "bright spot" if you can say from all of the GOP hackery, is that it signals to the Dem base that they've got to go out and vote. It turbocharges turnout for the opposition when they think the other side is trying to take their vote away.

I wouldn't be surprised if something similar is happening in Georgia. The way the Texas GOP is going about it is foolish, particularly in the midst of news of record-high voter registration

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

If Cornyn thinks he has to distance himself from Trump, and claim that he's opposed the border wall for the past four years, then what the heck does his internal polling say about this race?

And what does that suggest about the Presidential race in Texas...

"I mean, Texas isn't ready yet and Trump's gonna end up winning it no matter what.

But....."

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I really wish Hegar received the unnecessary donations that McGarth got. Could've been put to use much more efficiently in Texas