TX-SEN 2020 Megathread: Early Voting (user search)
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  TX-SEN 2020 Megathread: Early Voting (search mode)
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Author Topic: TX-SEN 2020 Megathread: Early Voting  (Read 53314 times)
MT Treasurer
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« on: December 22, 2018, 04:53:36 PM »

Like MI, I think the results of this race will closely mirror the presidential race, give or take one or two percentage points. I definitely don’t buy that Cornyn will be harder to beat than Cruz or that he’s much safer than Ernst.
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« Reply #1 on: February 26, 2019, 07:37:01 PM »

Do you guys think Cornyn would be more beatable in 2020 than Cruz was in 2018?

No, Cornyn will outrun Trump almost everywhere in the state and win by 8-9 points.

Ah yeah, the voters who will vote/have voted for a Democrat for president in 2016, a Democrat for state legislature in 2018, a Democrat for House in 2018, a Democrat for Senate in 2018, and a Democrat for president in 2020 are certainly going to support John Cornyn for Senate because he’s more "likeable" and less "extremist" than Cruz, right?
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« Reply #2 on: February 27, 2019, 09:47:42 PM »

Moreover, Cornyn is more entrenched than Cruz is and is much less disliked.

People keep saying this, but I don’t think it’s actually true.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #3 on: August 02, 2019, 09:26:37 PM »

Strong Incumbent John Cornyn with NUT-worthy approval numbers in new poll:

Quote
The poll also asked about the U.S. Senate race in Texas – and the jury is out on the state’s senior Senator, John Cornyn. While one-fourth of respondents approve of Cornyn’s performance and 27% disapprove, another 48% replied, they “don’t know.”

https://www.texasstandard.org/stories/news-roundup-new-poll-of-texas-voters-shows-several-democrats-have-an-edge-over-donald-tump/

This poll also showed Democrats with absurdly good numbers in the presidential race, but it’s pretty obvious that Cornyn isn’t much more popular than Cruz and extremely unknown.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #4 on: September 29, 2019, 11:48:50 AM »

This article highlights the challenges Cornyn faces in what will almost certainly be his toughest election yet and not necessarily an easier race for Republicans than TX-SEN 2018.

https://www.texasmonthly.com/politics/could-john-cornyn-lose-senate-seat-2020/

Definitely worth a read.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #5 on: September 29, 2019, 03:01:27 PM »

Cornyn could definitely be vulnerable, but in order to capitalize on that Dems are going to need to get out of their 2004-esque mindset and start funding Hegar (or whoever else) generously rather than lighting money on fire in places like Kentucky, Alabama, Colorado, IA-04, MN-07, Massachusetts for muh Kennedy, etc. Without a well funded Democratic challenger, Cornyn will just skate through by default. Sadly, anything that requires the Democratic Party apparatus to recognize it's no longer the 90s does not inspire much optimism from me.

Amy McGrath raising more in one day than MJ Hegar has raised in the entire campaign is a highlight of the incompetence of the Democratic establishment.

The DSCC will never reach NRSC 2017/2018 levels of incompetence, but yeah, they haven’t exactly covered themselves with glory this election cycle, even if it’s still relatively early. Of course it might not matter in a Democratic tsunami, but I have a feeling that they’re going to regret not having gone harder after Cornyn when he wins by less than Ernst (not sure why they’re so obsessed with that race) and (of course) McConnell. They would also do well to expand the playing field by putting Republicans on the defensive in KS/AK/MT (obviously these races won’t be easy to win, but conceding them this early does more harm than good when their path to 50+1 is already incredibly narrow).

At least they’re contesting AZ and GA lol.
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« Reply #6 on: October 05, 2020, 09:14:41 PM »

Why do people think he's going to oust run Trump by 5 points

This forum always overstates the importance/impact of "candidate quality" (while failing to comprehend how subjective the assessment of a candidate's "quality" is) while ignoring or downplaying the importance of fundamentals (trends, national environment, partisanship, partisan lean of a state/district, base enthusiasm, etc.). It’ll happen again in 2022 when Republicans nominate supposedly "weak" or "overrated" candidates in IA, MO, WI, PA, etc.
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« Reply #7 on: October 11, 2020, 04:43:01 PM »

Some very interesting insight into Unbeatable Titan John Cornyn's career and modus operandi (written from a D-friendly perspective, but definitely worth reading in its entirety):

https://www.sacurrent.com/the-daily/archives/2020/10/06/locked-in-a-tough-race-sen-john-cornyn-tries-to-put-on-a-moderate-face-dont-buy-it-critics-say

I always thought Cornyn was significantly more vulnerable to the ‘principle-less career politician/party hack who’s tied to leadership/corrupt establishment/corporate donors’ line of attack than Cruz, but not sure if Democrats have done a good job of executing it.
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« Reply #8 on: October 16, 2020, 10:11:56 AM »
« Edited: October 16, 2020, 05:44:31 PM by Arlington County Moderate 4 Trump (Against Bernie) »

I think the more seats Ds can bring into play the better; more backups incase one of the core 4 fails, and a larger buffer for legislation in the case of a landslide, so you don't risk Manchin switching parties.

Sure, the same way Republicans need a 52R/48D Senate to not risk Toomey switching parties.
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