TX-SEN 2020 Megathread: Early Voting
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  TX-SEN 2020 Megathread: Early Voting
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #600 on: October 16, 2020, 06:38:52 AM »

It should also be noted that Dems only came in with something like $2.8M for Beto in the closing days of 2018. So the fact that they are dumping nearly *$9 million* for Hegar shows they really think they can win. And judging from these early voting #s, I think there is definitely a high chance.
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Pollster
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« Reply #601 on: October 16, 2020, 09:52:35 AM »

It should also be noted that Dems only came in with something like $2.8M for Beto in the closing days of 2018. So the fact that they are dumping nearly *$9 million* for Hegar shows they really think they can win. And judging from these early voting #s, I think there is definitely a high chance.

In fairness, Beto really didn't need any financial help (and keep in mind candidate money goes a lot further than IE money). He also got millions in free media coverage.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #602 on: October 16, 2020, 09:54:57 AM »

I think the more seats Ds can bring into play the better; more backups incase one of the core 4 fails, and a larger buffer for legislation in the case of a landslide, so you don't risk Manchin switching parties.
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Astatine
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« Reply #603 on: October 16, 2020, 10:00:08 AM »

I think the more seats Ds can bring into play the better; more backups incase one of the core 4 fails, and a larger buffer for legislation in the case of a landslide, so you don't risk Manchin switching parties.
With Manchin having voted to remove Trump from office and him having voiced opposition to a party switch several times, it really does not seem likely that he'll switch parties. He is probably just gonna retire in 2024.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #604 on: October 16, 2020, 10:07:42 AM »

I think the more seats Ds can bring into play the better; more backups incase one of the core 4 fails, and a larger buffer for legislation in the case of a landslide, so you don't risk Manchin switching parties.
With Manchin having voted to remove Trump from office and him having voiced opposition to a party switch several times, it really does not seem likely that he'll switch parties. He is probably just gonna retire in 2024.

Yeah, I really think it depends upon if he wants to have a political future in WV or not. I think in reality he's a bit more liberal than he makes himself to be, but WV constrains him. Post WV-2018 senate election, he seems to have had less votes against the Democrats. I feel like if anything, Sinema might be a bigger bottleneck as she seems more willing to stand for her values, even when there's not much political gain, as by the time AZ-Sen will be up  again, AZ will prolly be a bluer state; if anything, she needs to worry about a primary challenger.
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JG
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« Reply #605 on: October 16, 2020, 10:08:23 AM »

I think the more seats Ds can bring into play the better; more backups incase one of the core 4 fails, and a larger buffer for legislation in the case of a landslide, so you don't risk Manchin switching parties.

Why would Manchin switch parties when on the verge of finally becoming chairman of the Energy comittee?
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #606 on: October 16, 2020, 10:11:56 AM »
« Edited: October 16, 2020, 05:44:31 PM by Arlington County Moderate 4 Trump (Against Bernie) »

I think the more seats Ds can bring into play the better; more backups incase one of the core 4 fails, and a larger buffer for legislation in the case of a landslide, so you don't risk Manchin switching parties.

Sure, the same way Republicans need a 52R/48D Senate to not risk Toomey switching parties.
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Indy Texas
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« Reply #607 on: October 16, 2020, 10:13:53 PM »

I think the more seats Ds can bring into play the better; more backups incase one of the core 4 fails, and a larger buffer for legislation in the case of a landslide, so you don't risk Manchin switching parties.
With Manchin having voted to remove Trump from office and him having voiced opposition to a party switch several times, it really does not seem likely that he'll switch parties. He is probably just gonna retire in 2024.

Yeah, I really think it depends upon if he wants to have a political future in WV or not. I think in reality he's a bit more liberal than he makes himself to be, but WV constrains him. Post WV-2018 senate election, he seems to have had less votes against the Democrats. I feel like if anything, Sinema might be a bigger bottleneck as she seems more willing to stand for her values, even when there's not much political gain, as by the time AZ-Sen will be up  again, AZ will prolly be a bluer state; if anything, she needs to worry about a primary challenger.

Manchin will be 77 in 2024. Unless his goal is to be carried out of the Senate chamber in a casket like his predecessor, I'm not sure what the point would be. He'd switch parties and be serving probably one more term at the most.

Robert Byrd's Senate was a very different place - he could work across the aisle in a depolarized environment and bring massive amounts of money to his home state. Manchin can't do that. Things just don't work that way anymore.

Better he retire from the Senate in 2024. If he wants to run for governor that year, he can probably eke out a narrow win (nothing's going to get better in WV under Justice and the GOP; he can run against all that) and it will likely be the last hurrah of the West Virginia Democratic Party.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #608 on: October 16, 2020, 10:29:15 PM »

I think the more seats Ds can bring into play the better; more backups incase one of the core 4 fails, and a larger buffer for legislation in the case of a landslide, so you don't risk Manchin switching parties.

Why would Manchin switch parties when on the verge of finally becoming chairman of the Energy comittee?

i wonder if manchin would run for wv gov in 2024, i wouldnt mind it, he cant win federally again, but hed have a good shot at the governorship
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prag_prog
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« Reply #609 on: October 16, 2020, 10:59:26 PM »

I think Cornyn will probably run maybe 1-2 points ahead of Trump but I don't see a big blowout. He seems like a generic R candidate. All the polls were mainly showing Cornyn roughly having similar vote share as Trump but Hegar was lagging behind Biden, mainly due to her lack of name recognition...which should improve as we move closer to election. I really wish Hegar received some of that money resist libs donated to McGrath. She really could use that in an expensive media market like Texas
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #610 on: October 18, 2020, 12:23:54 PM »

...

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SevenEleven
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« Reply #611 on: October 18, 2020, 12:37:20 PM »

Polling must be ugly. 🤭
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Torrain
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« Reply #612 on: October 18, 2020, 01:40:57 PM »

...



If Cornyn thinks he has to distance himself from Trump, and claim that he's opposed the border wall for the past four years, then what the heck does his internal polling say about this race?

And what does that suggest about the Presidential race in Texas...
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #613 on: October 18, 2020, 02:08:29 PM »

This all leads me to believe, along with the EV #s, that polling is going to be quite a bit off in TX this year.
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
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« Reply #614 on: October 18, 2020, 02:49:58 PM »

If Cornyn thinks he has to distance himself from Trump, and claim that he's opposed the border wall for the past four years, then what the heck does his internal polling say about this race?

And what does that suggest about the Presidential race in Texas...

"I mean, Texas isn't ready yet and Trump's gonna end up winning it no matter what.

But....."
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #615 on: October 18, 2020, 02:52:10 PM »

So excited to see jaws drop at the first returns we get in Collin County where people were convinced O’Roruke “maxed out” in 2018
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Pericles
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« Reply #616 on: October 18, 2020, 05:12:38 PM »

Cornyn is lying about opposing Trump taking money from the border wall from what the military was supposed to get. He voted against blocking the emergency declaration, and said in February 2019 “I believe border security is part of national security. So I support the efforts to accomplish that secure border, .. The president’s left with a bad hand and has to play the best hand he can.”
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #617 on: October 18, 2020, 07:26:34 PM »

Cornyn is lying about opposing Trump taking money from the border wall from what the military was supposed to get. He voted against blocking the emergency declaration, and said in February 2019 “I believe border security is part of national security. So I support the efforts to accomplish that secure border, .. The president’s left with a bad hand and has to play the best hand he can.”

What's the point of lying about it and possibly depressing deplorable base turnout, when it's so easily verifiable that he's lying? He's still going to win, but this can't exactly help him.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #618 on: October 19, 2020, 05:17:32 AM »

Cornyn is lying about opposing Trump taking money from the border wall from what the military was supposed to get. He voted against blocking the emergency declaration, and said in February 2019 “I believe border security is part of national security. So I support the efforts to accomplish that secure border, .. The president’s left with a bad hand and has to play the best hand he can.”

What's the point of lying about it and possibly depressing deplorable base turnout, when it's so easily verifiable that he's lying? He's still going to win, but this can't exactly help him.

Not sure why people are still so sure of this.
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QAnonKelly
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« Reply #619 on: October 19, 2020, 10:00:57 AM »

...



Lol that’s actually funny.
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Stuart98
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« Reply #620 on: October 19, 2020, 11:10:39 PM »

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Gracile
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« Reply #621 on: October 20, 2020, 11:27:19 AM »

National Democratic groups are dropping a ton of late spending into the Texas Senate race:



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wbrocks67
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« Reply #622 on: October 20, 2020, 11:35:57 AM »

Between that ^^^ and Cornyn's recent comments, both sides must see it's close
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VAR
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« Reply #623 on: October 22, 2020, 02:14:58 PM »

lmao.


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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #624 on: October 22, 2020, 02:23:45 PM »


I would rather has a senator who curses a little than one who wants to take away my healthcare and ruin the environment. Also; Cornyn, don't act all innocent; you've definately cursed many many time sin your life.
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